Result
0:1
12/03/2023 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 27
- Referee: El Hadj H. (Fra)
Chances of winning
Ajaccio
27.8% | Draw
31.1% | Montpellier
41.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajaccio's form might have worsened.Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+9.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajaccio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-7.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Ajaccio - Montpellier Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.43 ↑
(2.55) |
3.06 ↓
(3.22) |
2.32 ↓
(2.82) |
5.1%
(5.8%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Ajaccio - Montpellier?
Users Predictions:
33 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 5 - 15.2%). Montpellier will win (votes: 19 - 57.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 40.7% – 74.5%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 13).
- Ajaccio has the most likely position - 18 (26.07%), has project points - 33, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (70%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.
- Montpellier has the most likely position - 14 (24.18%), has project points - 43, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
- This event has quality 52, importance 33, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 1.
- Ajaccio is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Montpellier is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Ajaccio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- Montpellier will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Ajaccio: Alphonse M.
(Illness)
Cimignani Y.
(Injury)
Hamouma R.
(Injury)
Kone Y.
(Ankle Injury)
Mangani T.
(Injury)
Touzghar Y.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Montpellier: Bertaud D.
(Knee Injury)
Esteve M.
(Injury)
Leroy L.
(Muscle Injury)
Makouana B.
(Injury)
Sainte-Luce T.
(Knee Injury)
- Last 7 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-10.
- Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.
How many head-to-head matches has Ajaccio won against Montpellier?
Ajaccio has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Montpellier won against Ajaccio?
Montpellier has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ajaccio - Montpellier were as follows:
31.08.2022
Montpellier
-
Ajaccio
2:0
Latest results of Ajaccio
Latest results of Montpellier
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Lyon | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:0 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Toulouse | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | PSG | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 6 |
| 4 | Strasbourg | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Lille | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Lorient | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:1 | 3 | 3 |
| 7 | Marseille | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Monaco | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Nice | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 1 | 3 |
| 10 | Lens | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Angers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 12 | Auxerre | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 |
| 13 | Rennes | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Brest | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:5 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Nantes | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
| 16 | Le Havre | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 0 |
| 17 | Paris FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 |
| 18 | Metz | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
