Result
0:1
12/03/2023 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- FRANCE: LIGUE 1 - ROUND 27
- Referee: El Hadj H. (Fra)
Chances of winning
Ajaccio
27.8% | Draw
31.1% | Montpellier
41.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Ajaccio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ajaccio's form might have worsened.Montpellier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Montpellier's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ajaccio than the current prediction. (+9.5%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ajaccio, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montpellier than the current prediction. (-7.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montpellier, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Ajaccio - Montpellier Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.43 ↑
(2.55) |
3.06 ↓
(3.22) |
2.32 ↓
(2.82) |
5.1%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Ajaccio - Montpellier?
Users Predictions:
33 users predict this event. Ajaccio will win (votes: 5 - 15.2%). Montpellier will win (votes: 19 - 57.6%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Montpellier: 40.7% – 74.5%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- A team from the mid-table and outsider will play in this match (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Ligue 2 and 13).
- Ajaccio has the most likely position - 18 (26.07%), has project points - 33, has currently - 21, has a good chance of relegated (70%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has not chance of win league.
- Montpellier has the most likely position - 14 (24.18%), has project points - 43, has currently - 30, has a very small chance of relegated (4%), has a very small chance of qualify for ucl (<1%), has a very small chance of win league (<1%).
- This event has quality 52, importance 33, match rating 42. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 1.
- Ajaccio is in unsatisfactory shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
- Montpellier is in a first-rate shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Ajaccio could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- Montpellier will have a small advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Ajaccio: Alphonse M.
(Illness)
Cimignani Y.
(Injury)
Hamouma R.
(Injury)
Kone Y.
(Ankle Injury)
Mangani T.
(Injury)
Touzghar Y.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Montpellier: Bertaud D.
(Knee Injury)
Esteve M.
(Injury)
Leroy L.
(Muscle Injury)
Makouana B.
(Injury)
Sainte-Luce T.
(Knee Injury)
- Last 7 head-to-head matches Ajaccio won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 4-10.
- Including matches at home between the teams Ajaccio won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 3-3.
How many head-to-head matches has Ajaccio won against Montpellier?
Ajaccio has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Montpellier won against Ajaccio?
Montpellier has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Ajaccio - Montpellier were as follows:
31.08.2022
Montpellier
-
Ajaccio
2:0
Latest results of Ajaccio
Latest results of Montpellier
French Ligue 1 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | PSG | 25 | 18 | 3 | 4 | 54:22 | 32 | 57 |
| 2 | Lens | 26 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 49:23 | 26 | 56 |
| 3 | Marseille | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 53:33 | 20 | 49 |
| 4 | Lyon | 26 | 14 | 5 | 7 | 40:27 | 13 | 47 |
| 5 | Lille | 26 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 40:33 | 7 | 44 |
| 6 | Monaco | 26 | 13 | 4 | 9 | 45:37 | 8 | 43 |
| 7 | Rennes | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 43:37 | 6 | 43 |
| 8 | Strasbourg | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 40:31 | 9 | 37 |
| 9 | Lorient | 26 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 37:40 | -3 | 37 |
| 10 | Brest | 26 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 34:36 | -2 | 36 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 26 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 37:32 | 5 | 34 |
| 12 | Angers | 26 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 23:32 | -9 | 32 |
| 13 | Paris FC | 26 | 6 | 10 | 10 | 29:41 | -12 | 28 |
| 14 | Le Havre | 26 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 20:32 | -12 | 27 |
| 15 | Nice | 26 | 7 | 6 | 13 | 32:48 | -16 | 27 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 26 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 19:36 | -17 | 19 |
| 17 | Nantes | 25 | 4 | 5 | 16 | 22:42 | -20 | 17 |
| 18 | Metz | 26 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 25:60 | -35 | 13 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )
Relegation ~ Ligue 2
