Tampa Bay Lightning vs Montreal Canadiens – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Hockey NHL
Result
5:4 penalties
28/12/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • NHL
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 3
czech-republicCzech-republicNova Action, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkTV3 Sport, Viaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay 1 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Premium
franceFrancebeIN Sports MAX 6
germanyGermanySky Sport Mix, Sky Sport Top Event
icelandIcelandViaplay
mexicoMexicoSky Sport
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruMovistar Deportes
slovakiaSlovakiaDajto, Voyo
sloveniaSloveniaArena Sport 1
spainSpainDAZN Espana, M+ Deportes
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Premium
ukraineUkraineSetanta Sports+
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomDAZN, Premier Sports 2
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldNHL.tv

Match Stats

Shots on Goal
2236
Shots off target
1223
Shooting PCT
18.18% (4/22)11.11% (4/36)
Blocked Shots
1223
Goalkeeper Saves
3218
Saves PCT
88.89% (32/36)81.82% (18/22)
Penalties
52
PIM
137
Power-play Goals
00
Shorthanded Goals
00
Power-play PCT
0% (0/2)0% (0/5)
Pen. Killing PCT
100% (5/5)100% (2/2)
Hits
1726
Faceoffs Won
2237
Faceoffs %
37.2962.71
Giveaways
1813
Takeaways
38
Empty Net Goals
00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Period (0 - 0)
  • 03:50, Crozier M. (2 min),
  • 12:15, Paul N. (2 min),
  • 16:46, Sabourin S. (5 min),
  • 16:46, Xhekaj A. (5 min),
  • 18:07, D'Astous C. (2 min),
  • 2nd Period (3 - 0)
  • 02:28, 1 - 0, Kucherov N. (G), Goncalves G. (A),
  • 03:54, Texier A. (2 min),
  • 12:11, 2 - 0, Kucherov N. (G), Point B. (A), Goncalves G. (A2)
  • 12:19, Kucherov N. (2 min),
  • 14:49, 3 - 0, Paul N. (G), Bjorkstrand O. (A), Groshev M. (A2)
  • 3rd Period (1 - 4)
  • 01:06, 3 - 1, Demidov I. (G), Slafkovsky J. (A), Dobson N. (A2)
  • 01:40, 4 - 1, Holmberg P. (G), Bjorkstrand O. (A), D'Astous C. (A2)
  • 09:16, 4 - 2, Slafkovsky J. (G), Kapanen O. (A),
  • 12:17, 4 - 3, Dobson N. (G), Caufield C. (A), Matheson M. (A2)
  • 19:56, 4 - 4, Slafkovsky J. (G), Demidov I. (A), Hutson L. (A2)
  • Overtime (0 - 0)
  • Penalties (2 - 0)
  • 1, Goncalves G. (Penalty Shot),
  • 1, Demidov I. (Penalty Shot),
  • 2, Point B. (Penalty Shot),
  • 2, Caufield C. (Penalty Shot),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Tampa Bay Lightning
45.5%		Draw
22.3%		Montreal Canadiens
32.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
49.3% 20.8% 29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55% 23.2% 26.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tampa Bay Lightning has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)
  • Montreal Canadiens has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tampa Bay Lightning than the current prediction. (+9.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Tampa Bay Lightning, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Montreal Canadiens than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Montreal Canadiens, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
    •

    Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.09 ↑
    (1.97)    		 4.26 ↓
    (4.66)    		 2.94 ↓
    (3.25)    		 5.3%
    (3%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 6.00
    What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Tampa Bay will win (votes: 2 - 25%). Montreal will win (votes: 2 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 50%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 15.4% – 84.6%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Montreal (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 4:3.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ NHL (Play Offs: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 3.
    • Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
    • Tampa Bay may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Tampa Bay has had a series of home games.
    • Tampa Bay could have a small edge in this match.
    • There will not play in Tampa Bay: Cernak E. (Injury) Hagel B. (Upper-Body Injury) Hedman V. (Elbow Injury) Lilleberg E. (Injury) McDonagh R. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Montreal: Dach K. (Broken Leg) Evans J. (Lower-Body Injury) Guhle K. (Lower-Body Injury) Laine P. (Abdominal strain) Newhook A. (Ankle Injury) Texier A. (Upper-Body Injury)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tampa Bay won 15 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 80:52. (average 4:2.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Tampa Bay won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 37:26. (average 3.7:2.6).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens were as follows:
    09.12.2025 Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning 1:6
    09.02.2025 Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning 3:5
    21.01.2025 Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning 3:2
    29.12.2024 Tampa Bay Lightning - Montreal Canadiens 2:5
    04.04.2024 Montreal Canadiens - Tampa Bay Lightning 4:7
    Latest results of Tampa Bay Lightning
    27.12.2025 Florida Panthers - Tampa Bay Lightning 2:4 ✺
    22.12.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - St. Louis Blues 4:1 ✺
    20.12.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Carolina Hurricanes 6:4 ✺
    18.12.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Los Angeles Kings 1:2 ✺
    15.12.2025 Tampa Bay Lightning - Florida Panthers 2:5 ✺
    Latest results of Montreal Canadiens
    23.12.2025 Boston Bruins - Montreal Canadiens 2:6 ✺
    21.12.2025 Pittsburgh Penguins - Montreal Canadiens 4:3 ✺
    20.12.2025 Montreal Canadiens - Pittsburgh Penguins 4:0 ✺
    18.12.2025 Montreal Canadiens - Chicago Blackhawks 4:1 ✺
    16.12.2025 Montreal Canadiens - Philadelphia Flyers 1:4 ✺
    NHL Table
    Main

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    2Minnesota Wild5821131014196:16978
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    4Vegas Golden Knights572071416191:17968
    5Utah Mammoth57237423183:15764
    6Edmonton Oilers58217822198:19464
    7Seattle Kraken56216920162:16563
    8Anaheim Ducks561812323185:19563
    9Los Angeles Kings561491419146:16160
    10Nashville Predators57197724169:19859
    11San Jose Sharks551611424171:19358
    12Chicago Blackhawks57175926154:18553
    13Winnipeg Jets56202826160:17552
    14Calgary Flames56194627142:16952
    15St. Louis Blues57191928147:20349
    16Vancouver Canucks57126633149:21042


    Eastern Conference
    PlWWOLOLPts
    1Tampa Bay Lightning55289414199:14078
    2Carolina Hurricanes572610615197:16378
    3Montreal Canadiens572111817199:18772
    4Detroit Red Wings582310619174:17572
    5Pittsburgh Penguins562541215192:16970
    6Buffalo Sabres57266619195:17670
    7Boston Bruins57248520195:18269
    8New York Islanders582210521169:16269
    9Columbus Blue Jackets56209720179:17765
    10Washington Capitals59245723189:17765
    11Toronto Maple Leafs57198921188:19463
    12Ottawa Senators57226722191:18463
    13Philadelphia Flyers561871120167:18061
    14Florida Panthers57236325174:19161
    15New Jersey Devils571810227146:17558
    16New York Rangers57148629151:18050

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