Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Uruguayan Primera Division Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo
Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 10
  • Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
42
Corner Kicks
42
Yellow Cards
46
Red Cards
01
Total shots
105
Shots on target
42
Shots off target
63
Corner Kicks
42

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 30', Lopez N. , Ebere C. ,
  • 34', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
  • 41', Vazquez L. , Hernandez B. ,
  • 42', Brasil M. , Gianoli M. ,
  • 45', 1 - 0, Ebere C. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Gonzalez C. , Anasco M. ,
  • 54', Ebere C. 🟨,
  • 57', 1 - 1, Rossi F. ,
  • 61', 2 - 1, Gomez M. ,
  • 63', Romero D. 🟨,
  • 65', Correa L. 🟨,
  • 72', Assis S. 🟨,
  • 73', Correa L. , Gabriel Rossetto ,
  • 75', Romero D. , Patino J. ,
  • 76', Dos Santos A. , Palacios H. ,
  • 77', Bertocchi N. 🟨,
  • 81', Gabriel Rossetto 🟥,
  • 83', Parada F. 🟨,
  • 84', Lodeiro N. , Pereyra M. ,
  • 85', Gomez M. , Carneiro G. ,
  • 86', Patino J. 🟨,
  • 88', Anasco M. 🟨,
  • 89', Pereyra M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Nacional Montevideo
68.6%
Draw
19.5%
Cerro Largo
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
61.3% 21.7% 17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63% 21.1% 16.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Montevideo's performance.
  • Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerro Largo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Montevideo that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
  • Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.37
    (1.53)
    4.72
    (4.33)
    7.81
    (5.5)
    7.2%
    (6.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 8 - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 100%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 6).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 4.
    • Nacional is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Cerro Largo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Nacional is the undisputed favorite.
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:12. (average 1.8:0.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 0:4
    13.10.2024 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 0:1
    23.06.2024 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 0:4
    06.04.2024 Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo 1:0
    26.08.2023 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 2:2
    Latest results of Cerro Largo
    Uruguayan Primera Division Table
    Clausura
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Penarol971119:71222
    2Nacional1072121:91220
    3Montevideo City1062219:11820
    4Boston River1054118:61219
    5Liverpool M1053213:10318
    6Cerro Largo1051410:9116
    7Defensor Sp95136:8-216
    8Danubio941414:9513
    9CA Cerro94148:10-213
    10Miramar1032513:14-111
    11Progreso932410:11-111
    12Juventud103255:8-311
    13Racing Montevideo93247:15-811
    14Wanderers91172:12-104
    15River Plate100373:15-123
    16Plaza Colonia90276:20-142

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