Nacional Montevideo vs Cerro Largo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Uruguayan Primera Division Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo
Result
2:1
04/10/2025 at 17:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 10
  • Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Ball Possession
36%64%
Total shots
105
Shots on target
42
Corner Kicks
42
Yellow Cards
46
Red Cards
01
Total shots
105
Shots on target
42
Shots off target
63
Corner Kicks
42

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 30', Lopez N. , Ebere C. ,
  • 34', Gonzalez C. 🟨,
  • 41', Vazquez L. , Hernandez B. ,
  • 42', Brasil M. , Gianoli M. ,
  • 45', 1 - 0, Ebere C. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 46', Gonzalez C. , Anasco M. ,
  • 54', Ebere C. 🟨,
  • 57', 1 - 1, Rossi F. ,
  • 61', 2 - 1, Gomez M. ,
  • 63', Romero D. 🟨,
  • 65', Correa L. 🟨,
  • 72', Assis S. 🟨,
  • 73', Correa L. , Gabriel Rossetto ,
  • 75', Romero D. , Patino J. ,
  • 76', Dos Santos A. , Palacios H. ,
  • 77', Bertocchi N. 🟨,
  • 81', Gabriel Rossetto 🟥,
  • 83', Parada F. 🟨,
  • 84', Lodeiro N. , Pereyra M. ,
  • 85', Gomez M. , Carneiro G. ,
  • 86', Patino J. 🟨,
  • 88', Anasco M. 🟨,
  • 89', Pereyra M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Nacional Montevideo
68.6%
Draw
19.5%
Cerro Largo
11.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
61.3% 21.7% 17.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63% 21.1% 16.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Nacional Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nacional Montevideo's performance.
  • Cerro Largo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cerro Largo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional Montevideo than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nacional Montevideo that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cerro Largo than the current prediction. (+4.7%)
  • Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.37
    (1.53)
    4.72
    (4.33)
    7.81
    (5.5)
    7.2%
    (6.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 8 - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 100%100%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Nacional (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 5 and 6).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 4.
    • Nacional is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Cerro Largo has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • In this match, Nacional is the undisputed favorite.
    • In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 9 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 30:12. (average 1.8:0.7).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.3:0.4).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo were as follows:
    06.04.2025 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 0:4
    13.10.2024 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 0:1
    23.06.2024 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 0:4
    06.04.2024 Nacional Montevideo - Cerro Largo 1:0
    26.08.2023 Cerro Largo - Nacional Montevideo 2:2
    Latest results of Cerro Largo
    Uruguayan Primera Division Table
    Clausura
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Penarol1392226:111529
    2Liverpool M1374219:13625
    3Nacional1283124:101424
    4Montevideo City1373323:15824
    5CA Cerro1371513:13022
    6Defensor Sp1371511:13-222
    7Boston River1256120:81221
    8Cerro Largo1354415:14119
    9Progreso1352616:17-117
    10Danubio1343614:12215
    11Racing Montevideo1335511:20-914
    12Miramar1233616:19-312
    13Juventud133376:12-612
    14River Plate132477:17-1010
    15Plaza Colonia132299:22-138
    16Wanderers121295:19-145

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