Nagoya Grampus vs Shonan Bellmare – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/09/2025 at 04:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Toyota Stadium (Toyota City).

J1 League - Round 30
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.56	2.58
Ball Possession
37%	63%
Total shots
13	23
Shots on target
6	4
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
2	5
Passes
78% (252/324)	87% (475/549)
Yellow Cards
2	2
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
1.56	2.58
xG on target (xGOT)
2.58	1.57
Total shots
13	23
Shots on target
6	4
Shots off target
5	9
Blocked Shots
2	10
Shots inside the Box
8	14
Shots outside the Box
5	9
Hit the Woodwork
1	2
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
3	4
Corner Kicks
2	5
Touches in opposition box
14	26
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
1	3
Free Kicks
10	12
Passes
78% (252/324)	87% (475/549)
Long passes
33% (20/60)	37% (16/43)
Passes in final third
59% (52/88)	81% (154/190)
Crosses
21% (3/14)	32% (7/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.81	0.92
Throw-ins
19	15
Fouls
12	10
Tackles
70% (7/10)	80% (4/5)
Duels won
41	37
Clearances
24	16
Interceptions
8	1
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
3	3
xGOT faced
1.57	2.58
Goals prevented
0.57	-0.42

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Inagaki S. ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, Nagai K. ⚽,
45+3', 3 - 0, Yamagishi Y. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Ikeda M. ↓, Hiraoka T. ↑,
46', Ze Ricardo ↓, Okuno K. ↑,
46', Ota S. ↓, Nitta R. ↑,
46', Fujii T. ↓, Suzuki Y. ↑,
47', Okuno K. 🟨,
54', Yamagishi Y. 🟨,
56', Yamagishi Y. 🟨,
62', Izumi R. ↓, Nogami Y. ↑,
62', Onose K. ↓, Luiz Phellype ↑,
72', Nagai K. ↓, Kimura Y. ↑,
72', Asano Y. ↓, Kato G. ↑,
78', 3 - 1, Suzuki A. ⚽,
84', Okuno H. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Nagoya Grampus
64.8%

Draw
21.4%

Shonan Bellmare
13.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.8%

24.8%

19.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.7%

24%

18.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nagoya Grampus has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Nagoya Grampus's performance.

Shonan Bellmare has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Shonan Bellmare might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nagoya Grampus than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nagoya Grampus that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Shonan Bellmare than the current prediction. (+5%)

Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (1.71)	5.24 ↑ (3.85)	8.54 ↑ (4.93)	-7.9% (4.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare?

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Nagoya will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%). Shonan Bellmare will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nagoya: 35% – 88%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Nagoya (votes: 2 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 15 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ J2 League).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 1.
The current form of both teams is below expectations.
Nagoya may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, Nagoya is the team to beat.
There will not play in Nagoya: Hara T. (Injury) Kawazura A. (Ankle Injury) Kikuchi T. (Knee Injury) Mateus (Ankle Injury) Schmidt D. (Muscle Injury)
There will not play in Shonan Bellmare: Kamifukumoto N. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Nagai T. (Calf Injury) Tamura S. (Thigh Injury)
There are questionable in Shonan Bellmare: Oda Y. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nagoya won 6 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.1:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Nagoya won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 15:15. (average 1.5:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Nagoya Grampus won against Shonan Bellmare?

Nagoya Grampus has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Shonan Bellmare won against Nagoya Grampus?

Shonan Bellmare has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare were as follows:

06.04.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus 2:1

24.08.2024 Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus 0:1

16.06.2024 Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare 1:1

11.11.2023 Shonan Bellmare - Nagoya Grampus 2:1

23.04.2023 Nagoya Grampus - Shonan Bellmare 2:2

Latest results of Nagoya Grampus

13.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus 0:1 ✺

31.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Tokyo 1:1 ✺

27.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2:4 ✺

23.08.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Kawasaki Frontale 3:4 ✺

16.08.2025 Urawa Red Diamonds - Nagoya Grampus 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Shonan Bellmare

13.09.2025 Kashima Antlers - Shonan Bellmare 3:0 ✺

07.09.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Shonan Bellmare 4:1 ✺

03.09.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3:2 ✺

31.08.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Gamba Osaka 4:5 ✺

23.08.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare 1:0 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	32	20	4	8	52:28	24	64
2	Vissel Kobe	32	18	6	8	43:27	16	60
3	Kyoto	32	17	8	7	56:34	22	59
4	Kashiwa Reysol	32	15	12	5	47:33	14	57
5	Machida	32	16	7	9	48:33	15	55
6	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	32	16	7	9	37:22	15	55
7	Kawasaki Frontale	32	14	10	8	59:44	15	52
8	Urawa Reds	32	13	10	9	39:32	7	49
9	Gamba Osaka	32	15	4	13	46:47	-1	49
10	Cerezo Osaka	32	11	10	11	49:47	2	43
11	Shimizu S-Pulse	32	10	10	12	34:38	-4	40
12	Okayama	32	11	7	14	28:34	-6	40
13	FC Tokyo	32	11	7	14	35:45	-10	40
14	Avispa Fukuoka	32	9	10	13	31:37	-6	37
15	Nagoya Grampus	32	9	9	14	38:47	-9	36
16	Verdy	32	9	9	14	20:35	-15	36
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	32	8	7	17	32:43	-11	31
18	Yokohama FC	32	8	7	17	21:36	-15	31
19	Shonan Bellmare	32	6	7	19	28:56	-28	25
20	Albirex Niigata	32	4	9	19	29:54	-25	21

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League