Result
3:1
23/09/2025 at 21:07 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10
- Referee: Quintero M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video |
 Usa | NBC Universo, Peacock TV, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 1.56 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 46% | 54% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (347/412) | 88% (424/482) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.99 | 1.56 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.52 | 1.25 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 23 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 10 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 13 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 84% (347/412) | 88% (424/482) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 56% (28/50) | 51% (22/43) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 70% (72/103) | 78% (123/158) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (3/13) | 35% (6/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 0.95 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 7 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 67% (8/12) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 41 | 32 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 20 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.25 | 2.52 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.25 | -0.48 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 0)
- 27', Campillo Del Campo D. 🟨,
- 33', 1 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Ledezma R. (A),
- 44', 2 - 0, Sandoval S. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Monreal R. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
- 49', 2 - 1, Calderon C. ⚽,
- 51', Ledezma R. ↓, Tapias M. ↑,
- 63', Alvarez E. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
- 78', Perez P. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
- 84', Gonzalez A. ↓, Wilke T. ↑,
- 84', Govea O. ↓, Sepulveda G. ↑,
- 84', Campillo Del Campo D. ↓, Inda C. ↑,
- 85', Calderon C. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
- 86', Rosero K. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
- 90+3', Palavecino A. 🟨,
- 90+4', Sandoval S. 🟨,
- 90+4', 3 - 1, Inda C. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Chivas Guadalajara
47.2% | Draw
26.2% | Necaxa
26.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chivas Guadalajara's form might have worsened.Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Necaxa's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.04 ↑
(1.57) |
3.61 ↓
(4) |
3.58 ↓
(4.5) |
4.7%
(10.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Guadalajara will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Necaxa will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guadalajara: 41.6% – 98.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 12).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 3.
- In recent matches, Guadalajara has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Necaxa is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Necaxa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Guadalajara is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Guadalajara: Aguirre D.
(Injury)
Alvarado R.
(Ankle Injury)
Camberos H.
(Injury)
Gonzalez F.
(Red Card)
Gutierrez E.
(Muscle Injury)
Mozo A.
(Knee Injury)
Sepulveda L.
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in Necaxa: Lara E.
(Elbow Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 37:21. (average 1.9:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Chivas Guadalajara won against Necaxa?
Chivas Guadalajara has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Necaxa won against Chivas Guadalajara?
Necaxa has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa were as follows:
17.01.2025
Necaxa
-
Chivas Guadalajara
3:2
22.10.2024
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Necaxa
3:2
20.02.2024
Necaxa
-
Chivas Guadalajara
1:0
13.07.2023
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Necaxa
2:0
08.04.2023
Chivas Guadalajara
-
Necaxa
1:0
Latest results of Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 39:16 | 23 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 24:16 | 8 | 28 |
| 3 | Club America | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 27:13 | 14 | 27 |
| 4 | Monterrey | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 26:20 | 6 | 27 |
| 5 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 27:13 | 14 | 26 |
| 6 | Pachuca | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 18:15 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 26:17 | 9 | 20 |
| 8 | Guadalajara Chivas | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 20:18 | 2 | 20 |
| 9 | Juarez | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 18:17 | 1 | 19 |
| 10 | UNAM Pumas | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 16:20 | -4 | 14 |
| 11 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 19:20 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 15:21 | -6 | 13 |
| 13 | Atlas | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 21:29 | -8 | 13 |
| 14 | Club Leon | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 12:24 | -12 | 12 |
| 15 | Mazatlan FC | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 15:23 | -8 | 11 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14:25 | -11 | 11 |
| 17 | Necaxa | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14:26 | -12 | 9 |
| 18 | Puebla | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14:32 | -18 | 8 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
