Result
1:2
20/12/2025 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 16
- Referee: Aghayev A. (Aze)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Azerbaijan | CBC Sport |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 13 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 8 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 35', Doyeni O. 🟨,
- 45+8', Igor Ribeiro 🟨,
- 45+9', 1 - 0, Abdullayev A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Kings P. ↓, Durrant S. ↑,
- 46', Costin C. ↓, Sacko F. ↑,
- 47', Sambou B. 🟨,
- 60', Rezabala J. ↓, Ortiz L. ↑,
- 61', Abdullayev A. 🟨,
- 62', 1 - 1, Sambou B. ⚽,
- 70', Seck M. 🟨,
- 76', Faraj I. ↓, Curci A. ↑,
- 77', Ngwisani M. ↓, Masimov V. ↑,
- 79', Barker I. 🟨,
- 82', Abdullayev V. 🟨,
- 86', Sno S. ↓, Abdullayev A. ↑,
- 86', Abdullayev A. ↓, Cahangirov U. ↑,
- 90+7', 1 - 2, Mahmudov E. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
Karvan
11.9% | Draw
21% | Neftchi Baku
67.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Karvan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)Neftchi Baku has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Neftchi Baku's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karvan than the current prediction. (+9.3%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Karvan, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Neftchi Baku than the current prediction. (-21.1%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Neftchi Baku, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Karvan - Neftchi Baku Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
7.67 ↑
(5.74) |
4.35 ↑
(4.01) |
1.36 ↓
(1.51) |
9.6%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Karvan - Neftchi Baku?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Karvan will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Neftchi will win (votes: 3 - 75%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ I Liqa and 8).
- Karvan is on a losing streak (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Neftchi's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- In this match, Neftchi is the clear favorite.
- In the last 1 head-to-head match, Karvan won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.
How many head-to-head matches has Karvan won against Neftchi Baku?
Karvan has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Neftchi Baku won against Karvan?
Neftchi Baku has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Karvan - Neftchi Baku were as follows:
27.09.2025
Neftchi Baku
-
Karvan
0:0
Latest results of Neftchi Baku
Azerbaijan Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Sabah Baku | 27 | 20 | 6 | 1 | 66:21 | 45 | 66 |
| 2 | Qarabag | 26 | 17 | 5 | 4 | 55:18 | 37 | 56 |
| 3 | Turan Tovuz | 27 | 15 | 7 | 5 | 35:19 | 16 | 52 |
| 4 | Zira | 27 | 11 | 11 | 5 | 36:30 | 6 | 44 |
| 5 | Neftci Baku | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 44:24 | 20 | 43 |
| 6 | Araz | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 37:49 | -12 | 39 |
| 7 | Shamakhi | 27 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 25:28 | -3 | 32 |
| 8 | Sumqayit | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 35:40 | -5 | 32 |
| 9 | Imisli FK | 27 | 5 | 11 | 11 | 20:37 | -17 | 26 |
| 10 | Kapaz | 27 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 22:54 | -32 | 21 |
| 11 | Gabala | 27 | 5 | 4 | 18 | 25:43 | -18 | 19 |
| 12 | Karvan | 27 | 2 | 5 | 20 | 20:57 | -37 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ I Liqa
