Phoenix Rising vs New Mexico United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football USL Championship
Football USL Championship Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United
Result
0:1
04/10/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • USL Championship
  • Referee: Yaya A. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
mexicoMexicoDisney+
peruPeruDisney+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.521.45
Ball Possession
46%54%
Total shots
910
Shots on target
33
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
42
Passes
79% (286/363)80% (340/427)
Yellow Cards
41
Expected Goals (xG)
0.521.45
xG on target (xGOT)
0.461.05
Total shots
910
Shots on target
33
Shots off target
26
Blocked Shots
41
Shots inside the Box
48
Shots outside the Box
52
Hit the Woodwork
01
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
42
Touches in opposition box
1016
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
50
Free Kicks
1213
Passes
79% (286/363)80% (340/427)
Long passes
40% (24/60)40% (32/80)
Passes in final third
57% (42/74)59% (64/108)
Crosses
27% (4/15)11% (1/9)
Expected assists (xA)
0.470.33
Throw-ins
1518
Fouls
1312
Tackles
60% (6/10)70% (7/10)
Duels won
4240
Clearances
1616
Interceptions
64
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
24
xGOT faced
1.050.46
Goals prevented
0.050.46

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 40', Dennis C. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Zelalem G. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 55', Vargas M. ↓, Noel V. ↑,
  • 64', Cabral R. ↓, Johnson D. ↑,
  • 69', Sainte C. F. 🟨,
  • 72', Sainte C. F. ↓, Avayevu H. ↑,
  • 76', Harris D. ↓, Archimede L. ↑,
  • 86', Czichos R. ↓, Flood R. ↑,
  • 90+5', 🟨,
  • 90+7', 0 - 1, ⚽,
  • 90+10', 🟨,

Official Live

Chances of winning


Phoenix Rising
44.8%		Draw
27.6%		New Mexico United
27.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
40.8% 30% 29.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7% 30.6% 28.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Phoenix Rising has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)
  • New Mexico United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for New Mexico United than the current prediction. (+1%)
    •

    Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.07 ↓
    (2.27)    		 3.35 ↑
    (3.08)    		 3.35 ↑
    (3.16)    		 8.1%
    (8.1%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    •
    What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. New Mexico (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 3.
    • In recent matches, Phoenix Rising has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • New Mexico is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • New Mexico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • Recently, Phoenix Rising has had a series of home games.
    • Phoenix Rising is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Phoenix Rising won 7 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:31. (average 2.1:2.2).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Phoenix Rising won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 2.4:2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United were as follows:
    31.05.2025 Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United 4:3
    10.05.2025 New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising 1:2
    03.11.2024 New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising 2:1
    09.10.2024 New Mexico United - Phoenix Rising 1:2
    30.03.2024 Phoenix Rising - New Mexico United 0:1
    Latest results of Phoenix Rising
    27.09.2025 Phoenix Rising - Oakland Roots 3:3
    20.09.2025 Phoenix Rising - Loudoun United 2:2
    13.09.2025 Sacramento Republic - Phoenix Rising 2:2
    05.09.2025 Phoenix Rising - Las Vegas Lights 0:0
    30.08.2025 Phoenix Rising - El Paso Locomotive 3:3
    Latest results of New Mexico United
    28.09.2025 New Mexico United - Lexington 2:1
    24.09.2025 Colorado Springs Switchbacks - New Mexico United 1:2
    20.09.2025 Monterey Bay - New Mexico United 1:1
    13.09.2025 New Mexico United - Tulsa 0:1
    10.09.2025 New Mexico United - Detroit City 4:0
    USL Championship Table
    2025

    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Louisville City ✔ 27206154:193566
    2Charleston ✔ 26174554:292555
    3North Carolina271251039:37241
    4Loudoun271161043:45-239
    5Hartford Athletic261151040:291138
    6Pittsburgh271071027:27037
    7Detroit27981031:32-135
    8Indy Eleven27951340:47-732
    9Rhode Island26871120:26-631
    10Tampa Bay27861339:42-330
    11Birmingham285121133:45-1227
    12Miami FC27661525:41-1624


    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1FC Tulsa ✔ 27148544:291550
    2Sacramento Republic26128639:211844
    3New Mexico271341037:34343
    4San Antonio26107934:32237
    5El Paso27910842:38437
    6Lexington27981028:35-735
    7Colorado Springs27971134:39-534
    8Phoenix Rising27712845:48-333
    9Orange County SC26871138:41-331
    10Monterey Bay28771426:41-1528
    11Oakland Roots26761333:44-1127
    12Las Vegas Lights26671319:43-2425

          Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
    Charleston is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
    FC Tulsa is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
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