Result
4:4
30/08/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- USL Championship
- Referee: May C. (Usa)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | ESPN App, ESPN+, FanDuel Sports Network SoCal |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 1.33 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (411/456) | 86% (357/415) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.21 | 1.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.47 | 1.84 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 9 | 8 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 4 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 18 | 21 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (411/456) | 86% (357/415) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 68% (39/57) | 48% (21/44) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (80/111) | 82% (115/141) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 40% (6/15) | 44% (8/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.82 | 1.80 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 80% (16/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 47 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.84 | 2.47 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -1.16 | -1.53 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 3', 0 - 1, Daley A. ⚽, Tregarthen S. (A),
- 16', Martinez E. 🟨,
- 21', Benalcazar N. 🟨,
- 24', 1 - 1, Miles A. ⚽, Guimaraes P. (A),
- 28', 1 - 2, Damus R. ⚽, Martinez E. (A),
- 43', 2 - 2, Zubak E. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (2 - 2)
- 46', McIllhatton S. ↓, Laszo E. ↑,
- 46', Hamouda R. ↓, Paterson AJ ↑,
- 48', Ciotta N. 🟨,
- 52', 2 - 3, Latinovich V. (Own goal),
- 54', 3 - 3, Guimaraes P. ⚽, Doghman R. (A),
- 56', Jamison B. 🟨,
- 57', Suarez S. 🟨,
- 62', 3 - 4, Tregarthen S. ⚽, Martinez E. (A),
- 66', 4 - 4, Hegardt C. ⚽,
- 71', Jamison B. ↓, Molina R. ↑,
- 71', Sylla O. ↓, Karam G. ↑,
- 74', Molina R. 🟨,
- 84', Laszo E. 🟨,
- 86', Martinez E. ↓, Rufe J. ↑,
- 86', Tregarthen S. ↓, Preston T. ↑,
- 89', Zubak E. ↓, War M. ↑,
- 90', Daley A. ↓, Centeno E. ↑,
- 90+3', 🟨,
Chances of winning
Orange County SC
49.6% | Draw
25.8% | Birmingham Legion
24.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orange County SC has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)Birmingham Legion has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orange County SC than the current prediction. (+0.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham Legion than the current prediction. (-0.2%)
Orange County SC - Birmingham Legion Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.9 ↑
(1.87) |
3.66 ↑
(3.6) |
3.82 ↑
(3.71) |
6.2%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Orange County SC - Birmingham Legion?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Orange County SC (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Orange County SC will win
(6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.78% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 7 in the zone Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: ) and 11).
- Orange County SC is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Birmingham has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Recently, Orange County SC has had a series of away games.
- Orange County SC might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Orange County SC won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Orange County SC won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Orange County SC won against Birmingham Legion?
Orange County SC has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Birmingham Legion won against Orange County SC?
Birmingham Legion has won 2 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orange County SC - Birmingham Legion were as follows:
27.07.2024
Birmingham Legion
-
Orange County SC
3:0
22.04.2023
Orange County SC
-
Birmingham Legion
1:2
Latest results of Orange County SC
Latest results of Birmingham Legion
USL Championship Table
2025Eastern Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Louisville City ✔ | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 56:19 | 37 | 73 |
| 2 | Charleston ✔ | 30 | 19 | 5 | 6 | 62:32 | 30 | 62 |
| 3 | North Carolina ✔ | 30 | 13 | 6 | 11 | 40:39 | 1 | 45 |
| 4 | Hartford Athletic ✔ | 30 | 13 | 5 | 12 | 48:36 | 12 | 44 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh ✔ | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 32:28 | 4 | 44 |
| 6 | Loudoun ✔ | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 45:48 | -3 | 42 |
| 7 | Rhode Island | 30 | 10 | 8 | 12 | 29:29 | 0 | 38 |
| 8 | Detroit | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 33:35 | -2 | 37 |
| 9 | Indy Eleven | 30 | 10 | 5 | 15 | 44:52 | -8 | 35 |
| 10 | Tampa Bay | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | 43:50 | -7 | 34 |
| 11 | Miami FC | 30 | 8 | 6 | 16 | 29:44 | -15 | 30 |
| 12 | Birmingham | 30 | 5 | 12 | 13 | 36:50 | -14 | 27 |
Western Conference | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Tulsa ✔ | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 50:30 | 20 | 57 |
| 2 | New Mexico ✔ | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | 45:41 | 4 | 48 |
| 3 | Sacramento Republic ✔ | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 44:27 | 17 | 48 |
| 4 | El Paso | 30 | 10 | 11 | 9 | 47:45 | 2 | 41 |
| 5 | San Antonio | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | 39:38 | 1 | 40 |
| 6 | Phoenix Rising | 30 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 48:48 | 0 | 40 |
| 7 | Orange County SC | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 44:45 | -1 | 39 |
| 8 | Colorado Springs | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 35:47 | -12 | 37 |
| 9 | Lexington | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:42 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Oakland Roots | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 42:52 | -10 | 32 |
| 11 | Monterey Bay | 30 | 7 | 8 | 15 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Las Vegas Lights | 30 | 6 | 9 | 15 | 23:50 | -27 | 27 |
Promotion ~ USL Championship (Play Offs: )
Clinched Spots for Teams
Louisville City is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Charleston is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
North Carolina is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Hartford Athletic is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Pittsburgh is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Loudoun is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
FC Tulsa is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
New Mexico is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
Sacramento Republic is Qualified for USL Championship (Play Offs )
