Cincinnati vs Orlando City – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football MLS
Football MLS Cincinnati - Orlando City
Result
1:1
28/09/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • MLS
  • Referee: Mendoza R. (Usa)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaHBO Max, TNT, TNT Sports
australiaAustraliaSBS On Demand, SBS Viceland
austriaAustriaDAZN
brazilBrazilHBO Max
bulgariaBulgariaMax Sport 4
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video
chileChileTNT Sports
chinaChinaQQ Sports
ecuadorEcuadorTNT
germanyGermanyAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Deutsch, Sportdigital FUSSBALL
italyItalyAmazon Prime Video
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, HBO Max, TNT Sports
paraguayParaguayTNT
peruPeruTNT
switzerlandSwitzerlandDAZN Switzerland, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
usaUsaMLS Season Pass, SiriusXM FC
venezuelaVenezuelaTNT
worldWorldEA Sports FC

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.533.21
Ball Possession
57%43%
Total shots
1823
Shots on target
105
Big Chances
27
Corner Kicks
26
Passes
88% (446/507)81% (309/381)
Yellow Cards
35
Expected Goals (xG)
1.533.21
xG on target (xGOT)
2.411.09
Total shots
1823
Shots on target
105
Shots off target
410
Blocked Shots
48
Shots inside the Box
819
Shots outside the Box
104
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
27
Corner Kicks
26
Touches in opposition box
2138
Accurate through passes
22
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1312
Passes
88% (446/507)81% (309/381)
Long passes
50% (22/44)40% (17/42)
Passes in final third
75% (103/137)67% (60/89)
Crosses
33% (5/15)40% (6/15)
Expected assists (xA)
1.741.76
Throw-ins
714
Fouls
1213
Tackles
43% (6/14)50% (3/6)
Duels won
4227
Clearances
2520
Interceptions
1411
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
49
xGOT faced
1.092.41
Goals prevented
0.091.41

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 32', Atuesta E. 🟨,
  • 37', Brekalo D. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Gidi S. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 54', Freeman A. 🟨,
  • 66', Evander 🟨,
  • 66', Hagglund N. ↓, Powell A. ↑,
  • 67', Smith K. 🟨,
  • 69', Smith K. ↓, Gerbet J. ↑,
  • 70', Angulo I. ↓, Spicer T. ↑,
  • 73', 1 - 0, Denkey K. ⚽, Evander (A),
  • 74', Denkey K. 🟨,
  • 79', Brekalo D. ↓, Marin A. ↑,
  • 79', McGuire D. ↓, Muriel L. ↑,
  • 80', Bucha P. ↓, Anunga T. ↑,
  • 80', Orellano L. ↓, Marczuk D. ↑,
  • 80', Denkey K. ↓, Jabbari A. ↑,
  • 83', Pasalic M. ↓, Rodriguez N. ↑,
  • 86', Schlegel R. 🟨,
  • 88', Gidi S. ↓, Kubo Y. ↑,
  • 90+6', 1 - 1, Freeman A. ⚽, Spicer T. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Cincinnati
39.6%		Draw
24.3%		Orlando City
36.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.5% 25% 32.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.4% 25.1% 32.6%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Cincinnati has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)
  • Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.7%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cincinnati than the current prediction. (+2.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-3.6%)
    •

    Cincinnati - Orlando City Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.41 ↑
    (2.24)    		 3.93 ↑
    (3.81)    		 2.67 ↓
    (2.93)    		 4.5%
    (5.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
    What is the prediction for Cincinnati - Orlando City?
  • Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Cincinnati will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Orlando City will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Cincinnati: 4% – 71%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • Cincinnati is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 2.
    • In recent matches, Cincinnati has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Orlando City is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Recently, Orlando City has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
    • There will not play in Cincinnati: Celentano R. (Leg Injury) Miazga M. (Leg Injury) Nwobodo O. (Thigh Injury) Smith B. (Muscle Injury)
    • There will not play in Orlando City: Cartagena W. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Taifi Z. (Thigh Injury) Tsukada Y. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Orlando City: Araujo C. (Back Injury) Marin A. (Thigh Injury)
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Cincinnati won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:17. (average 0.8:1.4).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Cincinnati won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:7. (average 0.7:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Cincinnati - Orlando City were as follows:
    05.10.2024 Cincinnati - Orlando City 1:3
    04.05.2024 Orlando City - Cincinnati 0:1
    02.09.2023 Cincinnati - Orlando City 0:1
    04.03.2023 Orlando City - Cincinnati 0:0
    Latest results of Cincinnati
    20.09.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy - Cincinnati 2:3 ✺
    13.09.2025 Cincinnati - Nashville SC 2:1 ✺
    30.08.2025 Cincinnati - Philadelphia Union 0:1 ✺
    23.08.2025 Cincinnati - New York City 0:1 ✺
    16.08.2025 Portland Timbers - Cincinnati 2:3 ✺
    Latest results of Orlando City
    20.09.2025 Orlando City - Nashville SC 3:2 ✺
    13.09.2025 DC United - Orlando City 1:1 ✺
    31.08.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy - Orlando City 2:1 ✺
    27.08.2025 Inter Miami - Orlando City 3:1 ✺
    23.08.2025 Nashville SC - Orlando City 5:1 ✺
    MLS Table
    Main

    Western Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1San Diego FC ✔ 33186960:411960
    2Vancouver Whitecaps ✔ 32179663:352860
    3Los Angeles FC ✔ 32178763:372659
    4Minnesota United ✔ 331610755:371858
    5Seattle Sounders ✔ 321310955:47849
    6Austin FC321281235:43-844
    7Portland Timbers3311111141:44-344
    8FC Dallas3210111149:52-341
    9Real Salt Lake321241636:46-1040
    10Colorado Rapids331171542:54-1240
    11San Jose Earthquakes331081558:62-438
    12Houston Dynamo33991543:56-1336
    13St. Louis City33871842:56-1431
    14Sporting Kansas City33762046:70-2427
    15Los Angeles Galaxy32591842:64-2224


    Eastern Conference
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Philadelphia Union ✔ 33206757:332466
    2FC Cincinnati ✔ 33195949:40962
    3Inter Miami ✔ 32178772:531959
    4Charlotte ✔ 331821353:46756
    5New York City ✔ 331751149:42756
    6Nashville SC331661156:401654
    7Orlando City321411760:451553
    8Chicago Fire331571166:58852
    9Columbus Crew331312852:50251
    10New York Red Bulls331271447:44343
    11New England Revolution33981642:49-735
    12Toronto FC335141433:42-929
    13CF Montreal336101734:57-2328
    14Atlanta Utd325121537:58-2127
    15DC United335101829:65-3625

          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
          Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)

    Clinched Spots for Teams
    San Diego FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Vancouver Whitecaps is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Los Angeles FC is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Minnesota United is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Seattle Sounders is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Philadelphia Union is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    FC Cincinnati is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Inter Miami is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    Charlotte is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
    New York City is Qualified for MLS (Play Offs 1/8~finals)
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