Holstein Kiel vs Paderborn – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German 2 Bundesliga
Result
2:0
18/01/2026 at 07:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • 2. Bundesliga - Round 18
  • Referee: Bacher M. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
argentinaArgentinaDisney+
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
australiaAustraliabeIN Connect
austriaAustriaRTL, Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4
bulgariaBulgariaDiema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
canadaCanadaDAZN Canada
chileChileDisney+
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaSportKlub 6
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV, Viaplay
germanyGermanyRTL, Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, WOW
icelandIcelandViaplay
israelIsraelSport 3
laosLaosbeIN Connect
malaysiaMalaysiabeIN Connect
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 5
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandbeIN Connect
norwayNorwayViaplay
peruPeruDisney+
philippinesPhilippinesbeIN SPORTS MAX
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaPrima Sport PPV 1
slovakiaSlovakiaSport TV2
swedenSwedenViaplay
switzerlandSwitzerlandRTL, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga 4, Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV
thailandThailandbeIN Connect
turkeyTurkeyTivibu Spor 4
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaESPN App, ESPN+
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected goals (xG)
0.890.73
Ball possession
38%62%
Total shots
718
Shots on target
36
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
111
Passes
80% (261/327)84% (450/536)
Yellow cards
33
Expected goals (xG)
0.890.73
xG on target (xGOT)
1.210.97
Total shots
718
Shots on target
36
Shots off target
28
Blocked shots
24
Shots inside the box
69
Shots outside the box
19
Hit the woodwork
00
Headed goals
10
Big chances
21
Corner kicks
111
Touches in opposition box
1021
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
04
Free kicks
1812
Passes
80% (261/327)84% (450/536)
Long passes
33% (15/45)66% (41/62)
Passes in final third
59% (27/46)68% (94/139)
Crosses
40% (4/10)33% (9/27)
Expected assists (xA)
0.670.95
Throw ins
1527
Fouls
1218
Tackles
64% (9/14)71% (12/17)
Duels won
5054
Clearances
4311
Interceptions
1316
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper saves
51
xGOT faced
0.971.21
Goals prevented
0.97-0.79

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 18', 1 - 0, Skrzybski S. ⚽, Harres P. (A),
  • 33', Baur M. 🟨,
  • 44', Zec D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 61', Tohumcu U. ↓, Davidsen K. ↑,
  • 61', Niehoff N. ↓, Rosenboom L. ↑,
  • 62', Batzner N. ↓, Okpala K. ↑,
  • 62', Michel S. ↓, Bilbija F. ↑,
  • 67', 2 - 0, Rosenboom L. ⚽,
  • 68', Scheller T. ↓, Hansen M. ↑,
  • 74', Skrzybski S. ↓, Kapralik A. ↑,
  • 81', Tigges S. ↓, Muller R. ↑,
  • 81', Klaas S. ↓, Engelns L. ↑,
  • 82', Meffert J. 🟨,
  • 85', Therkelsen J. ↓, Schwab S. ↑,
  • 85', Harres P. ↓, Jakupovic A. ↑,
  • 88', Jakupovic A. 🟨,
  • 90+11', Okpala K. 🟨,
  • 90+12', Hansen M. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Holstein Kiel
31.6%		Draw
27.9%		Paderborn
40.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
32.6% 26.7% 40.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4% 26.9% 41%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Holstein Kiel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)
  • Paderborn has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Holstein Kiel than the current prediction. (+0.8%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paderborn than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
    •

    Holstein Kiel - Paderborn Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 2.97 ↑
    (2.9)    		 3.36 ↓
    (3.53)    		 2.31 ↓
    (2.32)    		 6.8%
    (5.9%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Holstein Kiel - Paderborn?
  • Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Holstein Kiel will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). Paderborn will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 11.8%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Paderborn: 48.9% – 92.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Paderborn (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH +0.25 - Holstein Kiel (1.83) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Holstein Kiel (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Paderborn (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 2.
    • Holstein Kiel is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Paderborn is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
    • Paderborn may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.
    • There will not play in Holstein Kiel: Bernhardsson A. (Foot Injury) Erras P. (Concussion) Johansson C. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Paderborn: Hoffmeier M. (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 13 head-to-head matches, Holstein Kiel won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:25. (average 2.1:1.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Holstein Kiel won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:9. (average 1.7:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Holstein Kiel - Paderborn were as follows:
    02.08.2025 Paderborn - Holstein Kiel 2:1
    17.02.2024 Paderborn - Holstein Kiel 0:4
    02.09.2023 Holstein Kiel - Paderborn 2:1
    25.02.2023 Holstein Kiel - Paderborn 1:1
    Latest results of Holstein Kiel
    10.01.2026 Ferencvárosi - Holstein Kiel 0:2
    07.01.2026 Holstein Kiel - Servette 1:1
    20.12.2025 Holstein Kiel - Dynamo Dresden 2:1 ✺
    13.12.2025 Magdeburg - Holstein Kiel 3:3 ✺
    07.12.2025 Eintracht Braunschweig - Holstein Kiel 1:1 ✺
    Latest results of Paderborn
    19.12.2025 Paderborn - Darmstadt 2:2 ✺
    13.12.2025 Karlsruher - Paderborn 0:4 ✺
    06.12.2025 Paderborn - Elversberg 1:2 ✺
    28.11.2025 Schalke 04 - Paderborn 2:1 ✺
    22.11.2025 Paderborn - Hannover 0:2 ✺
    German 2 Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Schalke26156537:231451
    2Darmstadt261310348:291949
    3Elversberg26146644:281648
    4Paderborn26146643:301348
    5Hannover26137645:341146
    6Hertha Berlin26118737:31641
    7Kaiserslautern261241045:38740
    8Karlsruher SC26971040:50-1034
    9Bochum2689936:33333
    10Nurnberg26961134:37-333
    11Dusseldorf26941324:35-1131
    12SG Dynamo Dresden26781144:44029
    13Braunschweig26851329:43-1429
    14Greuther Furth26851339:56-1729
    15Arminia Bielefeld26771238:36228
    16Preussen Munster26681230:44-1426
    17Holstein Kiel26671331:40-925
    18Magdeburg26731636:49-1324

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