Result
1:2
17/01/2026 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 20
- Referee: Calzavara A. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 1.58 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (383/469) | 79% (277/349) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.00 | 1.58 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.07 | 1.62 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 16 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 9 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 34 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (383/469) | 79% (277/349) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (18/44) | 41% (17/41) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (103/142) | 79% (107/135) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 36% (9/25) | 27% (3/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.08 | 1.06 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 25% (4/16) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 18 | 33 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.62 | 1.07 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.38 | 0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 32', 0 - 1, Mensah D. ⚽, Radaelli N. (A),
- 36', Cella S. 🟨,
- 37', Sgarbi F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Ghiglione P. ↓, Lasagna K. ↑,
- 46', Crisetig L. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 46', Perrotta M. ↓, Villa L. ↑,
- 49', Paoletti F. 🟨,
- 62', Sgarbi F. ↓, Faedo C. ↑,
- 63', Marras T. ↓, Buso N. ↑,
- 63', Ruocco F. ↓, Zuccon F. ↑,
- 66', 0 - 2, Mensah D. ⚽, Trimboli S. (A),
- 70', Fusi P. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
- 70', Mensah D. ↓, Mancuso L. ↑,
- 77', Varas K. 🟨,
- 81', 1 - 2, Lasagna K. ⚽, Capelli A. (A),
- 90+2', Radaelli N. ↓, Bianay Balcot C. ↑,
- 90+3', Sorrentino A. 🟨,
- 90+5', Bani C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Padova
41% | Draw
30% | Mantova
29% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Padova than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+0.5%)
Padova - Mantova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.29 ↓
(2.35) |
3.12 ↓
(3.13) |
3.19 ↑
(3.07) |
7.2%
(7.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Padova - Mantova?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 8 - 53.3%). Mantova will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Padova: 28.1% – 78.5%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH 0 - Mantova (2.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Mantova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 19 in the zone Relegation).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 1.
- Padova has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).
- Mantova is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
- Padova could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Favale G.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Mantova: Artioli F.
(Inactive)
Bonfanti N.
(Inactive)
Caprini M.
(Inactive)
Majer Z.
(Inactive)
Mantovani V.
(Calf Injury)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Padova won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:13. (average 1.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:7. (average 1.3:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Mantova?
Padova has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Mantova won against Padova?
Mantova has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Mantova were as follows:
08.11.2025
Mantova
-
Padova
1:0
08.01.2024
Padova
-
Mantova
0:5
04.09.2023
Mantova
-
Padova
1:1
22.04.2023
Mantova
-
Padova
1:3
17.12.2022
Padova
-
Mantova
1:1
Latest results of Mantova
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
