Result
0:1
21/03/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 32
- Referee: Marinelli L. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Belarus | Sport TV |
 Israel | 5 SPORT Israel |
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 Russia | Telekanal Futbol |
 Slovenia | Sport TV3 |
 Switzerland | Blue Sport 3, Blue Sport 3 |
 United-kingdom | DCTV |
 Usa | DCTV, FOX One, Fox Soccer Plus |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 1.28 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (434/512) | 75% (196/262) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.58 | 1.28 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.24 | 0.96 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 6 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 32 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (434/512) | 75% (196/262) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 47% (28/59) | 34% (17/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 79% (158/200) | 68% (66/97) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 10% (3/31) | 24% (5/21) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.91 | 0.71 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 86% (12/14) | 100% (6/6) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 48 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 54 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.96 | 0.24 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.04 | 0.24 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 25', Modesto R. 🟥,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Palumbo A. ↓, Peda P. ↑,
- 48', Ceccaroni P. 🟨,
- 54', Ceccaroni P. ↓, Magnani G. ↑,
- 58', Fusi P. ↓, Papu Gomez ↑,
- 59', Di Mariano F. 🟨,
- 64', Pohjanpalo J. ↓, Le Douaron J. ↑,
- 64', Segre J. ↓, Giovane S. ↑,
- 65', Bortolussi M. ↓, Caprari G. ↑,
- 65', Ghiglione P. ↓, Favale G. ↑,
- 78', Johnsen D. ↓, Vasic A. ↑,
- 80', Belli F. ↓, Buonaiuto C. ↑,
- 90', Pastina C. 🟨,
- 90+2', 0 - 1, Bani M. ⚽,
- 90+7', Pastina C. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Padova
19.4% | Draw
25.2% | Palermo
55.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Padova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)Palermo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Palermo's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Padova than the current prediction. (+3.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Palermo than the current prediction. (-4.5%)
Padova - Palermo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
4.81 ↑
(3.96) |
3.64 ↑
(3.4) |
1.71 ↓
(1.87) |
6.7%
(8.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Padova - Palermo?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Padova will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). Palermo will win (votes: 6 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Palermo: 45% – 100%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Palermo (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 12 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Padova won 0.
- Recent form of Padova has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Palermo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, Palermo is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Padova: Bacci J.
(Injury)
Barreca A.
(Inactive)
Faedo C.
(Yellow Cards)
Harder J.
(Injury)
Papu Gomez
(Inactive)
Sgarbi F.
(Inactive)
Silva J.
(Inactive)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Padova won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 6 matches, and goals 2:11. (average 0.3:1.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Padova won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 1:7. (average 0.3:2.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Padova won against Palermo?
Padova has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Palermo won against Padova?
Palermo has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Padova - Palermo were as follows:
27.12.2025
Palermo
-
Padova
1:0
Latest results of Palermo
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
