Result
4:3
21/02/2026 at 08:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Ligue 2 - Round 24
- Referee: Perreau Niel A. (Fra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Andorra | beIN Sports 1 |
 Asia | beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA French 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, TOD |
 Austria | DAZN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go |
 Cyprus | Cablenet Sports 2, Cablenet Sports 2 |
 Czech-republic | Nova Sport 1, Oneplay |
 Denmark | Viaplay |
 Finland | Viaplay |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1, Free |
 Germany | DAZN Deutsch |
 Japan | DAZN Japan |
 Netherlands | Viaplay |
 Norway | TV2 Play, Viaplay |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 1x2 |
 Slovakia | Nova Sport 1, Voyo |
 Sweden | Viaplay |
 Switzerland | DAZN Switzerland |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 3, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.16 | 1.64 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 64% | 36% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (530/592) | 79% (272/345) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 3.16 | 1.64 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 3.66 | 2.66 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 53 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 13 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 90% (530/592) | 79% (272/345) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 73% (24/33) | 40% (24/60) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 84% (223/266) | 60% (28/47) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 46% (13/28) | 50% (4/8) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 2.85 | 0.39 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 19 | 13 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (5/6) | 55% (6/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 9 | 32 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 15 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.66 | 3.66 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.34 | -0.34 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 16', 0 - 1, Fall C. ⚽, Bobichon A. (A),
- 21', 0 - 2, Versini G. ⚽, Fall C. (A),
- 28', Mille A. 🟨,
- 36', Briancon A. 🟨,
- 37', Diawara K. 🟨,
- 43', 1 - 2, Bentayeb T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 44', 2 - 2, Detourbet M. ⚽, Diawara S. (A),
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 58', Bobichon A. ↓, Gasnier K. ↑,
- 59', Karamoko S. ↓, Kante ↑,
- 61', 2 - 3, Kalulu J. ⚽, Sissoko O. (A),
- 69', Diawara K. ↓, Ripart R. ↑,
- 69', Diawara S. ↓, Ouzenadji A. ↑,
- 77', 3 - 3, Adeline M. ⚽, Ouzenadji A. (A),
- 77', Sissoko O. ↓, Lebouath S. ↑,
- 78', Versini G. ↓, Dong K. ↑,
- 78', Ouzenadji A. 🟨,
- 82', Raveyre N. 🟨,
- 84', Ruiz J. 🟨,
- 90', 4 - 3, Bentayeb T. ⚽, Maronnier L. (A),
- 90+1', Bentayeb T. 🟨,
- 90+2', Bentayeb T. ↓, El Idrissy M. ↑,
- 90+3', Adeline M. ↓, Chavalerin X. ↑,
Chances of winning
Troyes
49.3% | Draw
25.6% | Pau
25.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Troyes has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)Pau has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Troyes than the current prediction. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pau than the current prediction. (-0.7%)
Troyes - Pau Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.91 ↑
(1.8) |
3.67 ↑
(3.67) |
3.75 ↓
(3.97) |
6.5%
(8.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Troyes - Pau?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Troyes (votes: 1 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Troyes will win
(8 of 10 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 55.21% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Ligue 1 and 8).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 2.
- Troyes is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Pau has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Troyes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Troyes could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Troyes: Boura I.
(Health problems)
Gozzi P.
(Broken Leg)
Ifnaoui M.
(Injury)
Konate H.
(Inactive)
Lemaitre N.
(Knee Injury)
Maronnier L.
(Inactive)
Phliponeau A.
(Injury)
Traore I.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Pau: Beusnard S.
(Red Card)
Gaspar J.
(Inactive)
Glossoa N.
(Injury)
Meddah D.
(Yellow Cards)
Touzghar R.
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Troyes won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 1.7:0.6).
- Including home matches between the teams, Troyes won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 7:2. (average 2.3:0.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Troyes won against Pau?
Troyes has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Pau won against Troyes?
Pau has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Troyes - Pau were as follows:
03.11.2025
Pau
-
Troyes
1:1
07.03.2025
Pau
-
Troyes
0:2
29.10.2024
Troyes
-
Pau
3:0
23.04.2024
Troyes
-
Pau
2:2
19.12.2023
Pau
-
Troyes
1:1
French Ligue 2 Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Troyes | 28 | 17 | 6 | 5 | 49:28 | 21 | 57 |
| 2 | St Etienne | 28 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 50:29 | 21 | 53 |
| 3 | Le Mans | 28 | 13 | 11 | 4 | 41:29 | 12 | 50 |
| 4 | Red Star | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 32:27 | 5 | 47 |
| 5 | Reims | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 41:26 | 15 | 46 |
| 6 | Rodez | 28 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 35:33 | 2 | 44 |
| 7 | Montpellier | 28 | 12 | 6 | 10 | 33:25 | 8 | 42 |
| 8 | Dunkerque | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 43:34 | 9 | 39 |
| 9 | Annecy | 28 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 35:34 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Guingamp | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 38:40 | -2 | 39 |
| 11 | Pau FC | 28 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 40:44 | -4 | 39 |
| 12 | Boulogne | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 30:38 | -8 | 34 |
| 13 | Grenoble | 28 | 6 | 12 | 10 | 26:33 | -7 | 30 |
| 14 | Clermont | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 30:37 | -7 | 28 |
| 15 | Nancy | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 24:40 | -16 | 28 |
| 16 | Amiens | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 33:50 | -17 | 23 |
| 17 | Laval | 28 | 4 | 11 | 13 | 24:41 | -17 | 23 |
| 18 | Bastia | 28 | 3 | 11 | 14 | 15:31 | -16 | 20 |
Promotion ~ Ligue 1
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Promotion ~ Ligue 1 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Ligue 2 (Relegation)
Relegation ~ National
