Paysandu vs Vila Nova – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/08/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Leonidas Sodre de Castro (Belem).

Serie B Superbet - Round 21
Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Disney+

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.23	0.61
Ball Possession
59%	41%
Total shots
10	6
Shots on target
1	2
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
9	5
Passes
69% (206/299)	68% (143/209)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Expected Goals (xG)
0.23	0.61
xG on target (xGOT)
0.07	0.52
Total shots
10	6
Shots on target
1	2
Shots off target
3	2
Blocked Shots
6	2
Shots inside the Box
3	4
Shots outside the Box
7	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
0	2
Corner Kicks
9	5
Touches in opposition box
23	9
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
20	9
Passes
69% (206/299)	68% (143/209)
Long passes
37% (26/71)	38% (21/55)
Passes in final third
54% (64/118)	54% (37/68)
Crosses
18% (6/33)	18% (3/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.39	0.36
Throw-ins
40	27
Fouls
10	20
Tackles
80% (8/10)	72% (13/18)
Duels won
60	51
Clearances
35	75
Interceptions
5	8
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	1
xGOT faced
0.52	0.07
Goals prevented
-0.48	0.07

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
38', Ruan Ribeiro 🟨,
40', Marlon Douglas 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
61', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
67', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
70', Denner ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
70', Marlon Douglas ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
71', 0 - 1, Joao Vieira ⚽, Andre Luis (A),
78', Guilherme Parede ↓, Higor ↑,
78', Ralf ↓, Arilson ↑,
78', Luan Freitas ↓, Edilson ↑,
79', Reverson ↓, Patric Calmon ↑,
87', Dodo ↓, Nathan Melo ↑,
87', Joao Vieira ↓, Miticov ↑,
90+5', Higor 🟨,

Chances of winning

Paysandu
42.2%

Draw
31.9%

Vila Nova
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.5%

28.1%

Paysandu - Vila Nova Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↑ (2.18)	2.93 ↓ (3.23)	3.58 ↑ (3.24)	6.8% (7.6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

What is the prediction for Paysandu - Vila Nova?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

AH -0.5 - Vila Nova (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 9).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 2.
The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
Paysandu will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.4:1.1).
Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.7:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Vila Nova?

Paysandu has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Vila Nova won against Paysandu?

Vila Nova has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Paysandu - Vila Nova were as follows:

12.04.2025 Vila Nova - Paysandu 1:0

24.11.2024 Paysandu - Vila Nova 2:1

05.08.2024 Vila Nova - Paysandu 2:2

22.05.2024 Paysandu - Vila Nova 6:0

19.11.2022 Vila Nova - Paysandu 1:1

Latest results of Paysandu

03.08.2025 Athletico Paranaense - Paysandu 1:1 ✺

28.07.2025 Paysandu - Athletic Club 1:1 ✺

23.07.2025 Amazonas - Paysandu 1:1 ✺

19.07.2025 Coritiba - Paysandu 2:5 ✺

12.07.2025 Paysandu - Atlético Goianiense 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Vila Nova

31.07.2025 Vila Nova - Coritiba 1:2 ✺

27.07.2025 Volta Redonda - Vila Nova 2:1 ✺

22.07.2025 Vila Nova - CRB Maceio 2:0 ✺

19.07.2025 Avaí - Vila Nova 1:1 ✺

11.07.2025 Vila Nova - Operário Ferroviario 0:0 ✺

Brazilian Serie B Table

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Avai	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
2	Ceara	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
3	Sport Recife	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
4	Goias	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
5	Nautico	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
6	CRB	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
7	Criciuma	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
8	Vila Nova FC	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
9	Juventude	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
10	Ponte Preta	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
11	Fortaleza	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
12	Atletico GO	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
13	America MG	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
14	Botafogo SP	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
15	Londrina	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
16	Sao Bernardo	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
17	Cuiaba	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
18	Operario-PR	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
19	Novorizontino	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0
20	Athletic Club	0	0	0	0	0:0	0	0

      Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
      Promotion ~ Serie B Superbet (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
      Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )