Result
0:1
11/08/2025 at 20:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B Superbet - Round 21
- Referee: Pinheiro J. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.23 | 0.61 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 59% | 41% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (206/299) | 68% (143/209) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.23 | 0.61 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.07 | 0.52 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 9 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (206/299) | 68% (143/209) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (26/71) | 38% (21/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 54% (64/118) | 54% (37/68) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (6/33) | 18% (3/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.39 | 0.36 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 40 | 27 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 10 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 80% (8/10) | 72% (13/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 60 | 51 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 35 | 75 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.52 | 0.07 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.48 | 0.07 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 38', Ruan Ribeiro 🟨,
- 40', Marlon Douglas 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 61', Ronaldo Henrique ↓, Andre Lima ↑,
- 67', Vinicius Paiva ↓, Andre Luis ↑,
- 70', Denner ↓, Vinicius Faria ↑,
- 70', Marlon Douglas ↓, Benitez J. ↑,
- 71', 0 - 1, Joao Vieira ⚽, Andre Luis (A),
- 78', Guilherme Parede ↓, Higor ↑,
- 78', Ralf ↓, Arilson ↑,
- 78', Luan Freitas ↓, Edilson ↑,
- 79', Reverson ↓, Patric Calmon ↑,
- 87', Dodo ↓, Nathan Melo ↑,
- 87', Joao Vieira ↓, Miticov ↑,
- 90+5', Higor 🟨,
Chances of winning
Paysandu
42.2% | Draw
31.9% | Vila Nova
25.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Paysandu has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)Vila Nova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paysandu than the current prediction. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vila Nova than the current prediction. (+2.2%)
Paysandu - Vila Nova Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.24 ↑
(2.18) |
2.93 ↓
(3.23) |
3.58 ↑
(3.24) |
6.8%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
What is the prediction for Paysandu - Vila Nova?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Paysandu will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). Vila Nova will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 58.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 30.4% – 86.2%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 1 - 50%). Tie (votes: 1 - 50%).Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.5 - Vila Nova (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Vila Nova (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 19 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: ) and 9).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 2.
- The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
- Paysandu may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Paysandu will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Paysandu won 3 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 19:15. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Paysandu won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:6. (average 1.7:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Paysandu won against Vila Nova?
Paysandu has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Vila Nova won against Paysandu?
Vila Nova has won 1 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Paysandu - Vila Nova were as follows:
12.04.2025
Vila Nova
-
Paysandu
1:0
24.11.2024
Paysandu
-
Vila Nova
2:1
05.08.2024
Vila Nova
-
Paysandu
2:2
22.05.2024
Paysandu
-
Vila Nova
6:0
19.11.2022
Vila Nova
-
Paysandu
1:1
Latest results of Paysandu
Latest results of Vila Nova
Brazilian Serie B Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Fortaleza | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10:8 | 2 | 14 |
| 2 | Sao Bernardo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11:5 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | Operario-PR | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7:3 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | Vila Nova FC | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 11:8 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Criciuma | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9:7 | 2 | 11 |
| 6 | Juventude | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 5:4 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Nautico | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 5:7 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Ceara | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8:5 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Sport Recife | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Botafogo SP | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Avai | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 12 | Novorizontino | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 8 |
| 13 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8:8 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Cuiaba | 7 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 8 |
| 15 | Atletico GO | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7:8 | -1 | 7 |
| 16 | Ponte Preta | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5:9 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 | Goias | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7:12 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Londrina | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7:11 | -4 | 5 |
| 19 | CRB | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6:11 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | America MG | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 3:10 | -7 | 2 |
Promotion ~ Serie A Betano
Promotion ~ Serie B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Final)
Relegation ~ Serie C (First stage: )
