Result
0:2
04/04/2026 at 18:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga AUF Uruguaya - Apertura - Round 10
- Referee: Fernandez A. (Uru)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Disney+ |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Uruguay | Antel TV, DirecTV Sports, Disney+ |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 40% | 60% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 2 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 2 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 7 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 24', 0 - 1, Angulo L. ⚽,
- 31', Copelotti M. 🟨,
- 33', Fernandez L. 🟨,
- 39', 0 - 2, Angulo L. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 46', Viera S. ↓, Andueza F. ↑,
- 46', Paz A. ↓, Fernandez N. ↑,
- 46', Martin M. ↓, Trasante G. ↑,
- 58', Colombino A. ↓, Codagnone A. ↑,
- 65', Escobar F. ↓, Rodriguez K. ↑,
- 65', Angulo L. ↓, Batista F. ↑,
- 72', Togni G. ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
- 72', Arezo M. ↓, Hernandez A. ↑,
- 72', Copelotti M. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
- 86', Remedi E. 🟨,
- 90+3', Ferreira L. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Progreso
7.3% | Draw
18.2% | Peñarol de Montevideo
74.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Progreso's form might have worsened.Peñarol de Montevideo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Peñarol de Montevideo's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Progreso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Peñarol de Montevideo than the current prediction. (-9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Peñarol de Montevideo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
15.63 ↑
(6.52) |
6.09 ↑
(3.98) |
1.37 ↓
(1.47) |
-4.4%
(8.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo?
Users Predictions:
3 users predict this event. Peñarol will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 0.
- Progreso has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Peñarol is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, Peñarol is the obvious favorite.
- In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 12 matches, and goals 13:32. (average 0.8:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 8:20. (average 0.8:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Progreso won against Peñarol de Montevideo?
Progreso has won 0 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Peñarol de Montevideo won against Progreso?
Peñarol de Montevideo has won 5 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Progreso - Peñarol de Montevideo were as follows:
01.08.2025
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Progreso
2:1
01.02.2025
Progreso
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
1:3
26.11.2024
Progreso
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
1:5
22.06.2024
Progreso
-
Peñarol de Montevideo
0:2
23.05.2024
Peñarol de Montevideo
-
Progreso
3:1
Latest results of Progreso
Latest results of Peñarol de Montevideo
Uruguayan Primera Division Table
Apertura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Racing Montevideo | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18:9 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Penarol | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 17:8 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Maldonado | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 15:10 | 5 | 19 |
| 4 | Central Esp | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 17 |
| 5 | Nacional | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 14:11 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Montevideo City | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 14:11 | 3 | 15 |
| 7 | Wanderers | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 11:15 | -4 | 14 |
| 8 | Albion | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 13 |
| 9 | Liverpool M | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13:13 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Defensor Sp | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 7:7 | 0 | 13 |
| 11 | Cerro Largo | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 12:13 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Danubio | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12:13 | -1 | 13 |
| 13 | Boston River | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9:11 | -2 | 11 |
| 14 | CA Cerro | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5:14 | -9 | 8 |
| 15 | Progreso | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 9:17 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 | Juventud | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 9:17 | -8 | 4 |
Promotion ~ Liga AUF Uruguaya (Play Offs: )
