Phoenix Rising vs Houston Dynamo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football US Open Cup
Result
1:4 ET
07/05/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • US Open Cup - 1/16-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaCBS, Paramount+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.982.76
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
521
Shots on target
411
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
214
Passes
80% (338/425)87% (619/708)
Yellow Cards
64
Expected Goals (xG)
0.982.76
xG on target (xGOT)
1.164.58
Total shots
521
Shots on target
411
Shots off target
05
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
317
Shots outside the Box
24
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
214
Touches in opposition box
1138
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1924
Passes
80% (338/425)87% (619/708)
Long passes
54% (31/57)46% (19/41)
Passes in final third
46% (36/79)81% (163/202)
Crosses
18% (2/11)42% (16/38)
Expected assists (xA)
0.402.32
Throw-ins
2534
Fouls
2419
Tackles
58% (7/12)41% (7/17)
Duels won
4859
Clearances
2422
Interceptions
813
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
73
xGOT faced
4.581.16
Goals prevented
0.580.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 17', 0 - 1, Felipe Andrade ⚽, Lodeiro N. (A),
  • 24', Johnson D. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Gillingham B. 🟨,
  • 45+4', 1 - 1, Formella D. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Ortiz P. ↓, Awodesu F. ↑,
  • 50', Smith C. 🟨,
  • 52', Kowalczyk S. 🟨,
  • 56', Duenas E. 🟨,
  • 63', Duenas E. ↓, McGlynn J. ↑,
  • 63', Segal G. ↓, Raines B. ↑,
  • 63', Artur ↓, Ponce E. ↑,
  • 64', Montgomery B. 🟨,
  • 65', Cuello E. 🟨,
  • 69', Johnson D. ↓, Rivera D. ↑,
  • 70', Okello N. 🟨,
  • 81', Lodeiro N. ↓, Lingr O. ↑,
  • Extra Time (0 - 3)
  • 91', Cuello E. ↓, Flood R. ↑,
  • 91', Felipe Andrade ↓, Steres D. ↑,
  • 99', 1 - 2, McGlynn J. ⚽, Raines B. (A),
  • 105', Okello N. ↓, Ping J. ↑,
  • 106', Ping J. 🟨,
  • 112', 1 - 3, Ponce E. ⚽, Lingr O. (A),
  • 115', 1 - 4, Kowalczyk S. ⚽, Lingr O. (A),
  • 116', Sainte C. F. ↓, Kowall C. ↑,
  • 116', Montgomery B. ↓, Araneda A. ↑,
  • 117', Ponce E. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Phoenix Rising
22.5%		Draw
25.3%		Houston Dynamo
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
26.4% 27% 46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5% 26% 48.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
  • Houston Dynamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Houston Dynamo's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Houston Dynamo than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
    •

    Phoenix Rising - Houston Dynamo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 4.15 ↑
    (3.45)    		 3.68 ↑
    (3.36)    		 1.78 ↓
    (1.95)    		 7.5%
    (10.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising - Houston Dynamo?
  • Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Houston will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Houston Dynamo will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • In this match, Houston is considered a favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Phoenix Rising won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
    Latest results of Phoenix Rising
    03.05.2025 Colorado Springs Switchbacks - Phoenix Rising 1:1
    26.04.2025 Phoenix Rising - San Antonio 0:1
    19.04.2025 Phoenix Rising - Sacramento Republic 2:2
    16.04.2025 Tulsa - Phoenix Rising 1:2
    12.04.2025 Phoenix Rising - Detroit City 2:3
    Latest results of Houston Dynamo
    03.05.2025 Los Angeles - Houston Dynamo 2:0 ✺
    26.04.2025 Houston Dynamo - Austin FC 2:0 ✺
    19.04.2025 Houston Dynamo - Colorado Rapids 2:2 ✺
    12.04.2025 Los Angeles Galaxy - Houston Dynamo 1:1 ✺
    05.04.2025 Houston Dynamo - Los Angeles 1:0 ✺
    Draw
    2026

    1/64-finals
    1FC NaplesRed Force3 : 0
    2TormentaAmerica CFL Spurs (WO.)
    4ByeOrlando City
    5New England RevolutionBye
    7Rhode IslandFaialense4 : 0
    8MotownHartford Athletic0 : 2
    9ChattanoogaKalonji2 : 1
    10Tennessee TempoChattanooga Red Wolves1 : 0
    12ByeAtlanta Utd
    13CharlotteBye
    15Charlotte Independ.Ristozi4 : 1
    16CharlestonFlorida Badgers2 : 1
    17Richmond KickersNorthern Virginia2 : 0
    18West Chester UtdLoudoun1 : 2
    20ByeColumbus Crew
    21DC UnitedBye
    23Asheville CityGreenville3 : 1
    24VistulaOne Knoxville1 : 3
    25Vermont GreenPortland Hearts of Pine1 : 0
    26Westchester SCNY Renegades2 : 0
    28ByeNew York City
    29New York Red BullsBye
    31Steel CityPittsburgh1 : 2
    32Carolina CoreVirginia Dream1 : 2
    33Flint CityForward Madison2 : 0
    34DetroitMichigan Rangers5 : 1
    36ByeChicago Fire
    37St. Louis CityBye
    39San AntonioNew Stars6 : 0
    40Little Rock RangersFC Tulsa2 : 4
    41LexingtonFlower City Union9 : 0
    42Louisville CitySouthern Indiana2 : 0
    44ByeAustin FC
    45Houston DynamoBye
    47New MexicoCruizers3 : 2
    48Laredo HeatEl Paso0 : 2
    49Colorado SpringsAzteca3 : 0
    50VenturaSpokane Velocity1 : 2
    52ByeSporting Kansas City
    53Colorado RapidsBye
    55Indy ElevenMenace3 : 0
    56BOHFS St. LouisUnion Omaha0 : 8
    57AV AltaValley 559 FC0 : 1
    58Sacramento RepublicEl Farolito2 : 0
    60ByeMinnesota United
    61San Jose EarthquakesBye
    63Orange County SCLaguna United3 : 0
    64Phoenix RisingSan Ramon4 : 0

    1/32-finals
    1FC NaplesAmerica CFL Spurs3 : 0
    2ByeOrlando City
    3New England RevolutionBye
    4Rhode IslandHartford Athletic2 : 0
    5ChattanoogaTennessee Tempo1 : 0
    6ByeAtlanta Utd
    7CharlotteBye
    8Charlotte Independ.Charleston3 : 2
    9Richmond KickersLoudoun1 : 0
    10ByeColumbus Crew
    11DC UnitedBye
    12Asheville CityOne Knoxville1 : 2
    13Vermont GreenWestchester SC0 : 1
    14ByeNew York City
    15New York Red BullsBye
    16PittsburghVirginia Dream2 : 0
    17Flint CityDetroit0 : 1
    18ByeChicago Fire
    19St. Louis CityBye
    20San AntonioFC Tulsa0 : 1
    21LexingtonLouisville City0 : 2
    22ByeAustin FC
    23Houston DynamoBye
    24New MexicoEl Paso0 : 4
    25Colorado SpringsSpokane Velocity2 : 1
    26ByeSporting Kansas City
    27Colorado RapidsBye
    28Indy ElevenUnion Omaha1 : 2
    29Valley 559 FCSacramento Republic0 : 4
    30ByeMinnesota United
    31San Jose EarthquakesBye
    32Orange County SCPhoenix Rising1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1FC NaplesOrlando City0 : 1
    2New England RevolutionRhode Island2 : 1
    3ChattanoogaAtlanta Utd1 : 3
    4CharlotteCharlotte Independ.6 : 0
    5Richmond KickersColumbus Crew0 : 3
    6DC UnitedOne Knoxville3 : 4
    7Westchester SCNew York City2 : 5
    8New York Red BullsPittsburgh3 : 1
    9DetroitChicago Fire1 : 2
    10St. Louis CityFC Tulsa4 : 0
    11Louisville CityAustin FC2 : 1
    12Houston DynamoEl Paso4 : 1
    13Colorado SpringsSporting Kansas City3 : 0
    14Colorado RapidsUnion Omaha1 : 0
    15Sacramento RepublicMinnesota United0 : 1
    16San Jose EarthquakesPhoenix Rising2 : 0

    1/8-finals
    1Orlando CityNew England Revolution4 : 3
    2Atlanta UtdCharlotte2 : 0
    3Columbus CrewOne Knoxville4 : 1
    4New York CityNew York Red Bulls3 : 1
    5Chicago FireSt. Louis City1 : 2
    6Louisville CityHouston Dynamo1 : 2
    7Colorado SpringsColorado Rapids2 : 3
    8Minnesota UnitedSan Jose Earthquakes2 : 4

    Quarter-finals
    1Orlando CityAtlanta Utd
    2Columbus CrewNew York City
    3St. Louis CityHouston Dynamo
    4Colorado RapidsSan Jose Earthquakes

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2
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