Phoenix Rising vs Houston Dynamo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Result
1:4 ET
07/05/2025 at 22:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • US Open Cup - 1/16-finals
  • Where to Watch on TV:
usaUsaCBS, Paramount+

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.982.76
Ball Possession
37%63%
Total shots
521
Shots on target
411
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
214
Passes
80% (338/425)87% (619/708)
Yellow Cards
64
Expected Goals (xG)
0.982.76
xG on target (xGOT)
1.164.58
Total shots
521
Shots on target
411
Shots off target
05
Blocked Shots
15
Shots inside the Box
317
Shots outside the Box
24
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
214
Touches in opposition box
1138
Accurate through passes
10
Offsides
32
Free Kicks
1924
Passes
80% (338/425)87% (619/708)
Long passes
54% (31/57)46% (19/41)
Passes in final third
46% (36/79)81% (163/202)
Crosses
18% (2/11)42% (16/38)
Expected assists (xA)
0.402.32
Throw-ins
2534
Fouls
2419
Tackles
58% (7/12)41% (7/17)
Duels won
4859
Clearances
2422
Interceptions
813
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
73
xGOT faced
4.581.16
Goals prevented
0.580.16

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 1)
  • 17', 0 - 1, Felipe Andrade , Lodeiro N. (A),
  • 24', Johnson D. 🟨,
  • 45+2', Gillingham B. 🟨,
  • 45+4', 1 - 1, Formella D. (Pen),
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 46', Ortiz P. , Awodesu F. ,
  • 50', Smith C. 🟨,
  • 52', Kowalczyk S. 🟨,
  • 56', Duenas E. 🟨,
  • 63', Duenas E. , McGlynn J. ,
  • 63', Segal G. , Raines B. ,
  • 63', Artur , Ponce E. ,
  • 64', Montgomery B. 🟨,
  • 65', Cuello E. 🟨,
  • 69', Johnson D. , Rivera D. ,
  • 70', Okello N. 🟨,
  • 81', Lodeiro N. , Lingr O. ,
  • Extra Time (0 - 3)
  • 91', Cuello E. , Flood R. ,
  • 91', Felipe Andrade , Steres D. ,
  • 99', 1 - 2, McGlynn J. , Raines B. (A),
  • 105', Okello N. , Ping J. ,
  • 106', Ping J. 🟨,
  • 112', 1 - 3, Ponce E. , Lingr O. (A),
  • 115', 1 - 4, Kowalczyk S. , Lingr O. (A),
  • 116', Sainte C. F. , Kowall C. ,
  • 116', Montgomery B. , Araneda A. ,
  • 117', Ponce E. 🟨,

Chances of winning


Phoenix Rising
22.5%
Draw
25.3%
Houston Dynamo
52.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
26.4% 27% 46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.5% 26% 48.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Phoenix Rising has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)
  • Houston Dynamo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Houston Dynamo's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Phoenix Rising than the current prediction. (+3%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Houston Dynamo than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
  • Phoenix Rising - Houston Dynamo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    4.15
    (3.45)
    3.68
    (3.36)
    1.78
    (1.95)
    7.5%
    (10.1%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
    What is the prediction for Phoenix Rising - Houston Dynamo?
  • Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Houston will win (votes: 3 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Houston Dynamo will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
  • Preview Facts
    • The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.
    • In this match, Houston is considered a favorite.
    • In the last 1 head-to-head match, Phoenix Rising won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:1.
    Latest results of Phoenix Rising
    Latest results of Houston Dynamo
    Draw
    2026

    1/64-finals
    1ChattanoogaKalonji2 : 1
    2Tennessee TempoChattanooga Red Wolves1 : 0
    4ByeAtlanta Utd
    5CharlotteBye
    7Charlotte Independ.Ristozi4 : 1
    8CharlestonFlorida Badgers2 : 1
    9Vermont GreenPortland Hearts of Pine1 : 0
    10Westchester SCNY Renegades2 : 0
    12ByeNew York City
    13New York Red BullsBye
    15Steel CityPittsburgh1 : 2
    16Carolina CoreVirginia Dream1 : 2
    17Flint CityForward Madison2 : 0
    18DetroitMichigan Rangers5 : 1
    20ByeChicago Fire
    21St. Louis CityBye
    23San AntonioNew Stars6 : 0
    24Little Rock RangersFC Tulsa2 : 4
    25LexingtonFlower City Union9 : 0
    26Louisville CitySouthern Indiana2 : 0
    28ByeAustin FC
    29Houston DynamoBye
    31New MexicoCruizers3 : 2
    32Laredo HeatEl Paso0 : 2
    33Colorado SpringsAzteca3 : 0
    34VenturaSpokane Velocity1 : 2
    36ByeSporting Kansas City
    37Colorado RapidsBye
    39Indy ElevenMenace3 : 0
    40BOHFS St. LouisUnion Omaha0 : 8
    41AV AltaValley 559 FC0 : 1
    42Sacramento RepublicEl Farolito2 : 0
    44ByeMinnesota United
    45San Jose EarthquakesBye
    47Orange County SCLaguna United3 : 0
    48Phoenix RisingSan Ramon4 : 0
    49FC NaplesRed Force3 : 0
    50TormentaAmerica CFL Spurs (WO.)
    52ByeOrlando City
    53New England RevolutionBye
    55Rhode IslandFaialense4 : 0
    56MotownHartford Athletic0 : 2
    57Richmond KickersNorthern Virginia2 : 0
    58West Chester UtdLoudoun1 : 2
    60ByeColumbus Crew
    61DC UnitedBye
    63Asheville CityGreenville3 : 1
    64VistulaOne Knoxville1 : 3

    1/32-finals
    1ChattanoogaTennessee Tempo1 : 0
    2ByeAtlanta Utd
    3CharlotteBye
    4Charlotte Independ.Charleston3 : 2
    5Vermont GreenWestchester SC0 : 1
    6ByeNew York City
    7New York Red BullsBye
    8PittsburghVirginia Dream2 : 0
    9Flint CityDetroit0 : 1
    10ByeChicago Fire
    11St. Louis CityBye
    12San AntonioFC Tulsa0 : 1
    13LexingtonLouisville City0 : 2
    14ByeAustin FC
    15Houston DynamoBye
    16New MexicoEl Paso0 : 4
    17Colorado SpringsSpokane Velocity2 : 1
    18ByeSporting Kansas City
    19Colorado RapidsBye
    20Indy ElevenUnion Omaha1 : 2
    21Valley 559 FCSacramento Republic0 : 4
    22ByeMinnesota United
    23San Jose EarthquakesBye
    24Orange County SCPhoenix Rising1 : 2
    25FC NaplesAmerica CFL Spurs3 : 0
    26ByeOrlando City
    27New England RevolutionBye
    28Rhode IslandHartford Athletic2 : 0
    29Richmond KickersLoudoun1 : 0
    30ByeColumbus Crew
    31DC UnitedBye
    32Asheville CityOne Knoxville1 : 2

    1/16-finals
    1ChattanoogaAtlanta Utd
    2CharlotteCharlotte Independ.
    3Westchester SCNew York City
    4New York Red BullsPittsburgh
    5DetroitChicago Fire
    6St. Louis CityFC Tulsa
    7Louisville CityAustin FC
    8Houston DynamoEl Paso
    9Colorado SpringsSporting Kansas City
    10Colorado RapidsUnion Omaha
    11Sacramento RepublicMinnesota United
    12San Jose EarthquakesPhoenix Rising
    13FC NaplesOrlando City
    14New England RevolutionRhode Island
    15Richmond KickersColumbus Crew
    16DC UnitedOne Knoxville

    1/8-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4
    3TBD #5TBD #6
    4TBD #7TBD #8
    5TBD #9TBD #10
    6TBD #11TBD #12
    7TBD #13TBD #14
    8TBD #15TBD #16