Raith Rovers vs Ayr United – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stark's Park (Kirkcaldy).

Championship - Round 10
Referee: Nicolson D. (Sco)
Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Raith TV

Match Stats


Ball Possession
54%	46%
Total shots
6	6
Shots on target
2	3
Corner Kicks
5	3
Yellow Cards
2	3
Total shots
6	6
Shots on target
2	3
Shots off target
4	3
Corner Kicks
5	3

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 2)
12', 0 - 1, McKenzie M. ⚽, Rus M. (A),
17', McMann S. 🟨,
32', 0 - 2, Murphy J. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', McMullan P. ↓, Montagu K. ↑,
51', Brown S. 🟨,
51', Bannigan S. 🟨,
61', King L. 🟨,
61', Rowe J. ↓, Mullin J. ↑,
70', Easton D. 🟨,
71', Brown S. ↓, Byrne S. ↑,
71', Wilson E. ↓, Stevenson L. ↑,
71', Hamilton J. ↓, Smith C. ↑,
75', Bannigan S. ↓, Dowds A. ↑,
75', Rus M. ↓, Bonnar J. ↑,
80', Murphy J. ↓, Want S. ↑,
84', Walker E. ↓, Thomas D. ↑,
84', McKenzie M. ↓, Main C. ↑,

Chances of winning

Raith Rovers
26.1%

Draw
29.6%

Ayr United
44.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.3%

28.8%

26.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

28.9%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raith Rovers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-18.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Raith Rovers's form might have worsened.

Ayr United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ayr United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Raith Rovers than the current prediction. (+18.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Raith Rovers, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ayr United than the current prediction. (-17.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Ayr United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Raith Rovers - Ayr United Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.27 ↑ (2.1)	4.36 ↑ (3.23)	2.68 ↓ (3.45)	-20.7% (7.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Raith Rovers - Ayr United?

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Raith will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%). Ayr will win (votes: 4 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ayr: 15.4% – 84.6%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Quarter~finals) and 5)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Raith won 3.
In recent matches, Raith has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Ayr is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Raith will hold a modest advantage in this match.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Raith won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 24:28. (average 1.2:1.4).
Including home matches between the teams, Raith won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:12. (average 1.6:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Raith Rovers won against Ayr United?

Raith Rovers has won 7 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Ayr United won against Raith Rovers?

Ayr United has won 4 of their last 13 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Raith Rovers - Ayr United were as follows:

09.08.2025 Ayr United - Raith Rovers 0:1

05.04.2025 Raith Rovers - Ayr United 1:0

04.01.2025 Ayr United - Raith Rovers 3:0

01.11.2024 Raith Rovers - Ayr United 2:0

08.09.2024 Ayr United - Raith Rovers 3:2

Latest results of Raith Rovers

04.10.2025 Ross County - Raith Rovers 2:0 ✺

27.09.2025 Raith Rovers - Arbroath 3:0 ✺

20.09.2025 Airdrieonians - Raith Rovers 0:0 ✺

13.09.2025 Raith Rovers - St. Johnstone 0:2 ✺

06.09.2025 Greenock Morton - Raith Rovers 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Ayr United

04.10.2025 St. Johnstone - Ayr United 0:0 ✺

27.09.2025 Ayr United - Airdrieonians 4:2 ✺

23.09.2025 Dunfermline Athletic - Ayr United 0:1 ✺

13.09.2025 Ayr United - Ross County 1:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Ayr United - Queens Park 1:1 ✺

Scottish Football Championship Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	St Johnstone	11	7	3	1	19:8	11	24
2	Partick Thistle	11	7	3	1	18:13	5	24
3	Arbroath	11	5	3	3	16:18	-2	18
4	Ayr	11	4	5	2	15:11	4	17
5	Dunfermline	11	4	3	4	16:9	7	15
6	Raith	11	4	2	5	10:12	-2	14
7	Morton	11	1	8	2	10:11	-1	11
8	Queen's Park	11	1	6	4	8:14	-6	9
9	Ross County	11	1	5	5	11:15	-4	8
10	Airdrieonians	11	0	4	7	8:20	-12	4

      Promotion ~ Premiership
      Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Semi~finals)
      Promotion ~ Premiership (Relegation: Quarter~finals)
      Championship (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ League One