Result
4:0
25/01/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 19
- Referee: Vasilica I. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 8, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 0.47 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (277/347) | 86% (345/401) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.53 | 0.47 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.54 | 1.16 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 10 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 19 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (277/347) | 86% (345/401) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (19/52) | 40% (19/48) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (76/124) | 72% (64/89) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 47% (8/17) | 22% (4/18) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 0.68 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (10/18) | 60% (6/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 40 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 23 | 18 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.16 | 1.54 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.16 | -2.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 34', 1 - 0, Gabriel Veron ⚽, Ze Vitor (A),
- 2nd Half (3 - 0)
- 46', Aguilera Zamora B. ↓, Pohlmann O. ↑,
- 46', Petrasso F. ↓, Liavas G. ↑,
- 47', 2 - 0, Ramirez J. ⚽, Nunez A. (A),
- 52', Leo Santos 🟨,
- 61', Silva J. ↓, Labidi C. ↑,
- 66', Spikic D. ↓, Diogo Bezerra ↑,
- 66', Andre Luiz ↓, Papakanellos A. ↑,
- 72', 3 - 0, Leo Santos ⚽, Jose Gomes (A),
- 77', Paulinho Boia ↓, Witi ↑,
- 77', Gabriel Veron ↓, Daniel Junior ↑,
- 77', Tome J. ↓, Richards O. ↑,
- 85', Ze Vitor 🟨,
- 88', Ramirez J. ↓, Joao L. ↑,
- 88', Liziero ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
- 90', 4 - 0, Witi ⚽, Matheus Dias (A),
- 90+2', Jose Gomes 🟨,
Chances of winning
Nacional
45.9% | Draw
27.3% | Rio Ave
26.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)Rio Ave has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-2.3%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Ave than the current prediction. (+2%)
Nacional - Rio Ave Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.07 ↓
(2.14) |
3.45 ↑
(3.43) |
3.52 ↑
(3.33) |
5.6%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Nacional - Rio Ave?
Users Predictions:
22 users predict this event. Nacional will win (votes: 15 - 68.2%). Rio Ave will win (votes: 1 - 4.5%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Nacional: 48.7% – 87.7%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- BTTS - yes (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Nacional will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 13 and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 1.
- Recent performances by Nacional have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Rio Ave is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Nacional may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Nacional is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Nacional: Fernandes I.
(Injury)
Soares F.
(Injury)
Ulisses
(Injury)
- There will not play in Rio Ave: Rafael Lobato
(Inactive)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Nacional won 4 matches, drew 8 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:24. (average 1.1:1.2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Nacional won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:11. (average 1.1:1.1).
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Rio Ave?
Nacional has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rio Ave won against Nacional?
Rio Ave has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Nacional - Rio Ave were as follows:
17.08.2025
Rio Ave
-
Nacional
1:1
10.05.2025
Nacional
-
Rio Ave
3:3
29.12.2024
Rio Ave
-
Nacional
2:1
Latest results of Nacional
Latest results of Rio Ave
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 27 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 54:11 | 43 | 72 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 68:15 | 53 | 65 |
| 3 | Benfica | 27 | 19 | 8 | 0 | 58:17 | 41 | 65 |
| 4 | Braga | 26 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 53:27 | 26 | 46 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 33:22 | 11 | 45 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 27 | 11 | 9 | 7 | 39:28 | 11 | 42 |
| 7 | Estoril | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 48:44 | 4 | 37 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 27 | 10 | 5 | 12 | 31:39 | -8 | 35 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 27 | 9 | 5 | 13 | 29:42 | -13 | 32 |
| 10 | Rio Ave | 27 | 7 | 9 | 11 | 28:46 | -18 | 30 |
| 11 | Alverca | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | 27:45 | -18 | 29 |
| 12 | Arouca | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 34:55 | -21 | 29 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 24:31 | -7 | 28 |
| 14 | Estrela | 27 | 6 | 10 | 11 | 33:45 | -12 | 28 |
| 15 | Casa Pia | 26 | 5 | 9 | 12 | 26:48 | -22 | 24 |
| 16 | Nacional | 27 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 29:39 | -10 | 22 |
| 17 | Tondela | 26 | 4 | 8 | 14 | 19:39 | -20 | 20 |
| 18 | AFS | 27 | 1 | 8 | 18 | 18:58 | -40 | 11 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
