Result
0:2
25/04/2026 at 10:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 31
- Referee: Malheiro H. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.26 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 62% | 38% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (371/449) | 67% (184/275) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.44 | 1.26 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.36 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 8 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 9 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 16 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (371/449) | 67% (184/275) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 53% (24/45) | 39% (28/72) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 77% (114/149) | 49% (48/98) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 17% (4/24) | 21% (4/19) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.27 | 0.53 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 31 | 15 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 16 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 41% (7/17) | 65% (13/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 63 | 56 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 47 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 12 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 0.36 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.42 | 0.36 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 2)
- 14', Gabriel Veron ↓, Pablo Ruan ↑,
- 22', 0 - 1, Ramirez J. ⚽, Daniel Junior (A),
- 31', 0 - 2, Medina B. (Own goal),
- 38', Conceicao R. ↓, Manso T. ↑,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 58', Manso T. 🟨,
- 61', Felix H. ↓, Aiko M. ↑,
- 61', van der Heide A. ↓, Sithole S. ↑,
- 64', Ramirez J. 🟨,
- 76', Hodge J. ↓, Kimpioka B. ↑,
- 78', Daniel Junior ↓, Sousa A. ↑,
- 90', Aiko M. 🟨,
- 90+1', Soares F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 90+1', Jose Gomes ↓, Aurelio J. ↑,
Chances of winning
Tondela
33.1% | Draw
28.4% | Nacional
38.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)Nacional has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nacional than the current prediction. (-1.6%)
Tondela - Nacional Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.86 ↑
(2.72) |
3.29 ↓
(3.46) |
2.45 ↓
(2.67) |
6.2%
(3.1%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Tondela - Nacional?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2 and 14).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 1.
- Tondela is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).
- Nacional has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Tondela won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 19:23. (average 1.2:1.4).
- Including home matches between the teams, Tondela won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 11:7. (average 1.4:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Nacional?
Tondela has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Nacional won against Tondela?
Nacional has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Tondela - Nacional were as follows:
15.12.2025
Nacional
-
Tondela
3:1
12.05.2024
Tondela
-
Nacional
2:3
06.01.2024
Nacional
-
Tondela
1:1
29.01.2023
Tondela
-
Nacional
1:0
09.11.2022
Nacional
-
Tondela
1:0
Latest results of Tondela
Latest results of Nacional
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 32 | 13 | 11 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 50 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 35 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
