Result
0:1
05/10/2025 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Premier League - Round 11
- Referee: Saraev I. (Rus)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1 |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Russia | Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 2 |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.42 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 58% | 42% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (276/375) | 61% (166/271) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.74 | 1.42 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.03 | 0.66 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 14 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 7 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 17 | 39 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 18 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 74% (276/375) | 61% (166/271) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 46% (37/81) | 38% (27/72) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 66% (85/129) | 52% (68/132) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 41% (7/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.06 | 2.28 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 25 | 19 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 18 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 55% (6/11) | 46% (6/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 59 | 84 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 38 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 9 | 6 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.66 | 0.03 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.34 | 0.03 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 6', Poroykov S. 🟨,
- 16', Tataev A. 🟨,
- 32', Sako O. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Sako O. ↓, Semenchuk D. ↑,
- 56', Alexandre Jesus ↓, Guzina G. ↑,
- 62', Kasimov A. 🟨,
- 69', Shchetinin K. ↓, Komarov I. ↑,
- 70', Rybchinskiy D. ↓, Du Queiroz ↑,
- 70', Kvekveskiri I. ↓, Bolotov E. ↑,
- 77', Zotov G. ↓, Gorelov P. ↑,
- 82', Mohebi M. ↓, Suleymanov T. ↑,
- 84', 0 - 1, Suleymanov T. ⚽,
- 90+2', Golenkov E. ↓, Shamonin A. ↑,
- 90+5', Kamilov V. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Orenburg
26.1% | Draw
26% | Rostov
47.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Orenburg has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.3%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Orenburg's form might have worsened.Rostov has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.9%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Rostov's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orenburg than the current prediction. (+6.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Orenburg, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rostov than the current prediction. (-6.6%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Rostov, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Orenburg - Rostov Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.7 ↑
(2.78) |
3.71 ↑
(3.5) |
2.01 ↓
(2.32) |
3.7%
(7.6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Orenburg - Rostov?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Orenburg will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Rostov will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 60%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 in the zone Premier League (Relegation) and 11).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 0.
- Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
- Rostov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Rostov might have a minor edge in this game.
- In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Orenburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 21:24. (average 1.3:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, Orenburg won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).
How many head-to-head matches has Orenburg won against Rostov?
Orenburg has won 1 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Rostov won against Orenburg?
Rostov has won 6 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Orenburg - Rostov were as follows:
08.03.2025
Orenburg
-
Rostov
1:2
18.09.2024
Rostov
-
Orenburg
3:1
28.08.2024
Orenburg
-
Rostov
0:1
17.08.2024
Rostov
-
Orenburg
3:2
29.04.2024
Rostov
-
Orenburg
2:1
Latest results of Orenburg
Russian Premier League Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Krasnodar | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 39:13 | 26 | 43 |
| 2 | Zenit | 19 | 12 | 6 | 1 | 35:12 | 23 | 42 |
| 3 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 19 | 11 | 7 | 1 | 41:24 | 17 | 40 |
| 4 | CSKA Moscow | 19 | 11 | 3 | 5 | 30:18 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Baltika | 19 | 9 | 8 | 2 | 24:8 | 16 | 35 |
| 6 | Spartak Moscow | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29:25 | 4 | 32 |
| 7 | Akhmat Grozny | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 23:25 | -2 | 25 |
| 8 | Dynamo Moscow | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 31:26 | 5 | 24 |
| 9 | Rubin Kazan | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 17:24 | -7 | 23 |
| 10 | Akron Togliatti | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 22:28 | -6 | 21 |
| 11 | FK Rostov | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 16:22 | -6 | 21 |
| 12 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 10:22 | -12 | 18 |
| 13 | Krylya Sovetov | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 20:37 | -17 | 17 |
| 14 | Orenburg | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:29 | -10 | 15 |
| 15 | Pari NN | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 13:30 | -17 | 14 |
| 16 | Sochi | 19 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 18:44 | -26 | 9 |
Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation ~ FNL
