Spezia vs Salernitana – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

01/05/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadio Alberto Picco (La Spezia).

Serie B - Round 36
Referee: Fourneau F. (Ita)
Where to Watch on TV:


Italy	DAZN Italia

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.07	0.40
Ball Possession
50%	50%
Total shots
19	8
Shots on target
7	1
Big Chances
6	1
Corner Kicks
7	7
Passes
81% (263/324)	81% (275/338)
Yellow Cards
0	2
Expected Goals (xG)
2.07	0.40
xG on target (xGOT)
1.39	0.00
Total shots
19	8
Shots on target
7	1
Shots off target
7	4
Blocked Shots
5	3
Shots inside the Box
13	6
Shots outside the Box
6	2
Hit the Woodwork
0	2
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
6	1
Corner Kicks
7	7
Touches in opposition box
31	12
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
2	2
Free Kicks
18	21
Passes
81% (263/324)	81% (275/338)
Long passes
49% (19/39)	43% (28/65)
Passes in final third
72% (94/130)	66% (62/94)
Crosses
34% (10/29)	7% (1/14)
Expected assists (xA)
1.93	0.89
Throw-ins
11	22
Fouls
21	18
Tackles
64% (7/11)	62% (8/13)
Duels won
57	48
Clearances
22	23
Interceptions
4	1
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
1	5
xGOT faced
0.95	1.39
Goals prevented
0.95	-0.61

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', 1 - 0, Kouda R. ⚽, Mateju A. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
52', Hrustic A. 🟨,
62', Cerri A. ↓, Simy ↑,
62', Ruggeri F. ↓, Verde D. ↑,
63', Falcinelli D. ↓, Colak A. ↑,
63', Kouda R. ↓, Cassata F. ↑,
76', Stojanovic P. ↓, Soriano R. ↑,
76', Mateju A. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
76', Bandinelli F. ↓, Nagy A. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Vignali L. ⚽,
84', Corazza T. 🟨,
86', Tongya F. ↓, Jaroszynski P. ↑,
86', Lochoshvili L. ↓, Njoh L. ↑,
88', Esposito F. ↓, Lapadula G. ↑,

Highlights

https://tinyurl.com/5aujrhrx

Chances of winning

Spezia
53.1%

Draw
28.2%

Salernitana
18.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

24.3%

18.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.7%

23.6%

18%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4%)

Salernitana has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+5.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Spezia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Salernitana than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Spezia - Salernitana Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.79 ↑ (1.64)	3.36 ↓ (3.85)	4.99 ↓ (5.06)	5.7% (6.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Spezia - Salernitana?

Users Predictions: Spezia will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Spezia will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 15).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches Spezia won 1.
Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
In this match, Spezia is a favorite.
There will not play in Spezia: Degli Innocenti D. (Injury) Sarr M. (Shoulder Injury) Soleri E. (Injury)
There will not play in Salernitana: Bronn D. (Injury) Zuccon F. (Inactive)
In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Spezia won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 27:18 (average 1.6:1.1).
Including matches at home between the teams, Spezia won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 16:6 (average 2:0.8).

How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Salernitana?

Spezia has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Salernitana won against Spezia?

Salernitana has won 2 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Spezia - Salernitana were as follows:

19.10.2024 Salernitana - Spezia 0:2

12.08.2024 Salernitana - Spezia 4:3

02.04.2023 Spezia - Salernitana 1:1

22.10.2022 Salernitana - Spezia 1:0

Latest results of Spezia

25.04.2025 Frosinone - Spezia 2:2 ✺

13.04.2025 Mantova - Spezia 2:2 ✺

06.04.2025 Spezia - Sampdoria 2:0 ✺

28.03.2025 Spezia - Brescia 0:1 ✺

15.03.2025 Cesena - Spezia 0:0 ✺

Latest results of Salernitana

25.04.2025 Salernitana - Nuova Cosenza 3:1 ✺

12.04.2025 Salernitana - Südtirol-Alto Adige 2:1 ✺

05.04.2025 Juve Stabia - Salernitana 1:0 ✺

30.03.2025 Salernitana - Palermo 1:2 ✺

15.03.2025 Bari - Salernitana 0:0 ✺

Italian Serie B Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Venezia ✔	37	23	10	4	75:31	44	79
2	Frosinone	37	22	12	3	71:34	37	78
3	Monza	37	22	9	6	59:30	29	75
4	Palermo	37	20	12	5	61:31	30	72
5	Catanzaro ✔	37	15	14	8	60:48	12	59
6	Modena ✔	37	15	10	12	49:35	14	55
7	Juve Stabia ✔	37	11	17	9	43:44	-1	50
8	Avellino	37	12	10	15	42:55	-13	46
9	Cesena	37	12	10	15	42:52	-10	46
10	Mantova	37	13	7	17	45:52	-7	46
11	Carrarese	37	10	14	13	46:50	-4	44
12	Sampdoria	37	11	11	15	35:47	-12	44
13	Padova	37	11	10	16	35:46	-11	43
14	Empoli	37	9	13	15	45:52	-7	40
15	Sudtirol	37	8	16	13	37:47	-10	40
16	Entella	37	9	12	16	34:50	-16	39
17	Bari	37	9	10	18	35:58	-23	37
18	Pescara	37	7	13	17	50:65	-15	34
19	Spezia	37	8	10	19	42:58	-16	34
20	Reggiana	37	8	10	19	35:56	-21	34

      Promotion ~ Serie A
      Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
      Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
      Serie B (Play Out: )
      Relegation

Clinched Spots for Teams

Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)