Result
2:3
21/02/2026 at 11:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 26
- Referee: Di Marco D. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.77 | 1.25 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 52% | 48% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (368/447) | 83% (363/437) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.77 | 1.25 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.88 | 2.89 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 22 | 9 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 6 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 16 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 0 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 37 | 18 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (368/447) | 83% (363/437) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (32/63) | 49% (26/53) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (89/126) | 66% (63/96) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (6/30) | 17% (1/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.40 | 0.89 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 17 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 60% (9/15) | 70% (7/10) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 47 | 40 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 34 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 11 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 2.89 | 2.88 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.11 | 0.88 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', 1 - 0, Shpendi C. ⚽, Frabotta G. (A),
- 15', Bellemo A. 🟨,
- 17', 1 - 1, Artistico G. ⚽, Bellemo A. (A),
- 23', Mangraviti M. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Mangraviti M. ↓, Piacentini M. ↑,
- 53', 2 - 1, Berti T. ⚽,
- 57', Skjellerup L. 🟨,
- 58', Bellemo A. ↓, Comotto C. ↑,
- 58', Ruggero M. ↓, Vignali L. ↑,
- 64', Beruatto P. ↓, Aurelio G. ↑,
- 65', Skjellerup L. ↓, Vlahovic V. ↑,
- 67', 2 - 2, Aurelio G. ⚽, Sernicola L. (A),
- 69', Frabotta G. ↓, Magni V. ↑,
- 72', Magni V. ↓, Olivieri M. ↑,
- 72', Cerri A. ↓, Corazza T. ↑,
- 75', 2 - 3, Artistico G. ⚽,
- 82', Berti T. ↓, Vrioni G. ↑,
- 84', Adamo E. ↓, Nagy A. ↑,
Chances of winning
Cesena
43.9% | Draw
29.6% | Spezia
26.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Cesena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)Spezia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cesena than the current prediction. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Spezia than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
Cesena - Spezia Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.15
(2.15) |
3.19 ↓
(3.2) |
3.49 ↑
(3.27) |
6.5%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Cesena - Spezia?
Users Predictions:
15 users predict this event. Cesena will win (votes: 11 - 73.3%). Spezia will win (votes: 1 - 6.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cesena: 50.9% – 95.7%.Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cesena (votes: 1 - 100%). Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- AH -0.5 - Cesena (2.10) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Cesena (votes: 2 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 18 in the zone Relegation).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cesena won 3.
- Cesena is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Spezia's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- Spezia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Cesena will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Cesena: Shpendi C.
(Inactive)
Zaro G.
(Yellow Cards)
- There will not play in Spezia: Bandinelli F.
(Injury)
Cassata F.
(Muscle Injury)
Di Serio G.
(Inactive)
Lapadula G.
(Inactive)
Sarr M.
(Ankle Injury)
Zurkowski S.
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Cesena won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 16:15. (average 1.1:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Cesena won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 9:6. (average 1.3:0.9).
How many head-to-head matches has Cesena won against Spezia?
Cesena has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Spezia won against Cesena?
Spezia has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Cesena - Spezia were as follows:
18.10.2025
Spezia
-
Cesena
1:2
15.03.2025
Cesena
-
Spezia
0:0
01.09.2024
Spezia
-
Cesena
2:1
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Venezia ✔ | 37 | 23 | 10 | 4 | 75:31 | 44 | 79 |
| 2 | Frosinone | 37 | 22 | 12 | 3 | 71:34 | 37 | 78 |
| 3 | Monza | 37 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 59:30 | 29 | 75 |
| 4 | Palermo | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | 61:31 | 30 | 72 |
| 5 | Catanzaro ✔ | 37 | 15 | 14 | 8 | 60:48 | 12 | 59 |
| 6 | Modena ✔ | 37 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 49:35 | 14 | 55 |
| 7 | Juve Stabia ✔ | 37 | 11 | 17 | 9 | 43:44 | -1 | 50 |
| 8 | Avellino | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:55 | -13 | 46 |
| 9 | Cesena | 37 | 12 | 10 | 15 | 42:52 | -10 | 46 |
| 10 | Mantova | 37 | 13 | 7 | 17 | 45:52 | -7 | 46 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 37 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 46:50 | -4 | 44 |
| 12 | Sampdoria | 37 | 11 | 11 | 15 | 35:47 | -12 | 44 |
| 13 | Padova | 37 | 11 | 10 | 16 | 35:46 | -11 | 43 |
| 14 | Empoli | 37 | 9 | 13 | 15 | 45:52 | -7 | 40 |
| 15 | Sudtirol | 37 | 8 | 16 | 13 | 37:47 | -10 | 40 |
| 16 | Entella | 37 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 34:50 | -16 | 39 |
| 17 | Bari | 37 | 9 | 10 | 18 | 35:58 | -23 | 37 |
| 18 | Pescara | 37 | 7 | 13 | 17 | 50:65 | -15 | 34 |
| 19 | Spezia | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 42:58 | -16 | 34 |
| 20 | Reggiana | 37 | 8 | 10 | 19 | 35:56 | -21 | 34 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
Clinched Spots for Teams
Venezia is Qualified for Serie A
Catanzaro is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Modena is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
Juve Stabia is Qualified for Serie B (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
