Independiente vs San Lorenzo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Argentinian Liga Profesional Independiente - San Lorenzo
Result
1:1
21/09/2025 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Torneo Betano - Clausura - Round 9
  • Referee: Zunino S. (Arg)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaSporty TV, StarTimes App
argentinaArgentinaHBO Max, TNT Sports
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 2
brazilBrazilDisney+
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaK-Ball
colombiaColombiaDisney+
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go
germanyGermanySportdigital FUSSBALL
italyItalyComo TV, Sportitalia Solo Calcio
mexicoMexicoDisney+, Fanatiz
north-macedoniaNorth-macedoniaMaxTV GO
peruPeruDisney+
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 2
spainSpainM+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1, #Vamos
switzerlandSwitzerlandSunrise TV, Sunrise TV
turkeyTurkeySpor Smart 1
united-arab-emiratesUnited-arab-emiratesDubai Sports 1
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaFanatiz
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, Inter
worldWorldTyC Sports Internacional

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.130.83
Ball Possession
61%39%
Total shots
46
Shots on target
03
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
13
Passes
71% (273/383)60% (144/241)
Yellow Cards
11
Expected Goals (xG)
0.130.83
xG on target (xGOT)
0.001.07
Total shots
46
Shots on target
03
Shots off target
43
Blocked Shots
00
Shots inside the Box
34
Shots outside the Box
12
Hit the Woodwork
10
Big Chances
01
Corner Kicks
13
Touches in opposition box
118
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
02
Free Kicks
2317
Passes
71% (273/383)60% (144/241)
Long passes
39% (22/56)25% (13/52)
Passes in final third
45% (40/88)49% (35/72)
Crosses
22% (2/9)20% (2/10)
Expected assists (xA)
0.510.19
Throw-ins
2922
Fouls
1723
Tackles
47% (9/19)64% (16/25)
Duels won
6863
Clearances
1523
Interceptions
711
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
20
xGOT faced
1.070.00
Goals prevented
0.070.00

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 37', 0 - 1, Gulli F. , Cuello A. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Valdez S. , Cabral L. ,
  • 46', Abaldo M. , Paredes F. ,
  • 63', Galdames P. , Loyola F. ,
  • 65', Gulli F. , Rattalino J. ,
  • 65', Reali M. , Ladstatter A. ,
  • 68', 1 - 1, Tripichio N. (Own goal),
  • 70', Vera F. , Rodrigo Fernandez ,
  • 82', Tripichio N. , Salinardi Branco ,
  • 82', Cerutti E. , Herrera E. ,
  • 84', Avalos G. , Pussetto I. ,
  • 90+1', Montiel S. 🟨,
  • 90+1', Salinardi Branco 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Independiente
35.2%
Draw
36.1%
San Lorenzo
28.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.1% 31.7% 26.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6% 32.1% 25.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Independiente has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.9%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Independiente's form might have worsened.
  • San Lorenzo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (+7.4%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Independiente, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (-2.8%)
  • Independiente - San Lorenzo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.22
    (2.23)
    2.97
    (2.96)
    3.63
    (3.58)
    -7.7%
    (6.7%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 1.50
    What is the prediction for Independiente - San Lorenzo?
  • Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Independiente will win (votes: 5 - 45.5%). San Lorenzo will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Independiente: 16.1%74.9%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. San Lorenzo (votes: 1 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 15 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 1.
    • Independiente is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • San Lorenzo has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
    • Independiente might have a minor edge in this game.
    • There will not play in San Lorenzo: Arias N. (Knee Injury) Insaurralde M. (Elbow Injury)
    • In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Independiente won 3 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 0.6:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Independiente won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 0.4:0.9).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Independiente - San Lorenzo were as follows:
    08.03.2025 San Lorenzo - Independiente 1:2
    03.08.2024 Independiente - San Lorenzo 0:0
    01.04.2023 San Lorenzo - Independiente 0:0
    Latest results of Independiente
    Latest results of San Lorenzo
    Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
    Clausura

    Group A
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Central Cordoba1356216:10621
    2Estudiantes L.P1363415:13221
    3Union de Santa Fe1355319:13620
    4Defensa y Justicia1354413:13019
    5Argentinos Jrs1353515:10518
    6Belgrano1346313:10318
    7Barracas Central1246215:13218
    8Tigre1346313:11218
    9Racing Club1353514:13118
    10Boca Juniors1245319:10917
    11Banfield1352612:18-617
    12Huracan134456:11-516
    13Ind. Rivadavia1326511:14-312
    14Newells Old Boys1325611:21-1011
    15Aldosivi132385:15-109


    Group B
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Dep. Riestra1383218:9927
    2Rosario Central1376015:6927
    3Lanus1382315:9626
    4Velez Sarsfield1374219:91025
    5River Plate1363420:12821
    6San Lorenzo1354411:10119
    7San Martin S.J1345410:11-117
    8Atl. Tucuman1343614:15-115
    9Sarmiento Junin134369:14-515
    10Instituto133647:12-515
    11Talleres Cordoba133557:12-514
    12Gimnasia L.P134188:16-813
    13Platense1325611:20-911
    14Godoy Cruz131759:16-710
    15Independiente131669:13-49

          Promotion ~ Torneo Betano (Clausura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)