San Lorenzo vs Quilmes – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Copa Argentina San Lorenzo - Quilmes
Result
1:0 penalties
05/07/2025 at 15:45 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Copa Argentina - 1/16-finals

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.16
Ball Possession
74%26%
Total shots
134
Shots on target
61
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
21
Passes
87% (504/582)66% (142/215)
Yellow Cards
44
Red Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.290.16
xG on target (xGOT)
1.150.00
Total shots
134
Shots on target
61
Shots off target
53
Blocked Shots
20
Shots inside the Box
73
Shots outside the Box
61
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
11
Corner Kicks
21
Touches in opposition box
249
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
14
Free Kicks
1813
Passes
87% (504/582)66% (142/215)
Long passes
60% (32/53)33% (15/45)
Passes in final third
74% (109/147)55% (31/56)
Crosses
35% (11/31)40% (2/5)
Expected assists (xA)
0.840.20
Throw-ins
2613
Fouls
1318
Tackles
56% (10/18)72% (13/18)
Duels won
6150
Clearances
1342
Interceptions
86
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
16
xGOT faced
0.001.15
Goals prevented
0.001.15

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 0)
  • 13', Gulli F. 🟨,
  • 20', Baez E. 🟨,
  • 24', Vombergar A. (Pen),
  • 43', Bindella A. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 0)
  • 55', Kaprof J. , Belinetz O. ,
  • 57', Perruzzi I. 🟨,
  • 65', Gulli F. , Insaurralde M. ,
  • 69', Bindella A. 🟨,
  • 70', Machado C. , Capano J. ,
  • 71', Mino M. , Postigo J. ,
  • 80', Allende L. 🟨,
  • 80', Roseti M. , Martinez R. ,
  • 87', Tripichio N. , Salinardi Branco ,
  • 90+1', Cerutti E. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Ramirez I. 🟨,
  • Penalties (4 - 3)
  • 1, Allende L. (Pen),
  • 1, Vombergar A. (Pen),
  • 2, Belinetz O. (Pen),
  • 2, Cuello A. (Pen),
  • 3, Aranda G. (Pen),
  • 3, Herrera E. (Pen),
  • 4, Ramirez I. (Pen),
  • 4, Baez E. (Pen),
  • 5, Flores F. (Pen),

Chances of winning


San Lorenzo
52.1%
Draw
29.4%
Quilmes
18.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
59.3% 26.7% 14%

Our Initial ML Estimation

60.7% 26.1% 13.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • San Lorenzo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.2%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Lorenzo's form might have worsened.
  • Quilmes has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Lorenzo than the current prediction. (+8.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Lorenzo, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Quilmes than the current prediction. (-4.7%)
  • San Lorenzo - Quilmes Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.79
    (1.58)
    3.17
    (3.51)
    5.06
    (6.69)
    7.2%
    (6.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for San Lorenzo - Quilmes?
  • Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. San Lorenzo will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Quilmes will win (votes: 1 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 25%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • Neutral location.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo won 4.
    • San Lorenzo has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).
    • Quilmes has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Quilmes may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
    • In this match, San Lorenzo is seen as the favorite.
    • In the last 8 head-to-head matches, San Lorenzo won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 15:10. (average 1.9:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, San Lorenzo won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:2. (average 2:0.7).
    Latest results of San Lorenzo
    Latest results of Quilmes
    Draw
    2025

    1/32-finals
    1San LorenzoSportivo Las Parejas1 : 0
    2Central CordobaQuilmes0 : 1
    3TigreBerazategui3 : 0
    4BanfieldVilla Mitre1 : 0
    5PlatenseArgentino de Quilmes2 : 0
    6Ind. RivadaviaCA Estudiantes1 : 0
    7Sarmiento JuninCentral Cordoba0 : 1
    8Gimnasia L.P.Deportivo Espanol1 : 0
    9Racing ClubSantamarina2 : 0
    10San Martin S.J.Gimnasia Jujuy1 : 0
    11Dep. RiestraSan Telmo3 : 2
    12Talleres CordobaDeportivo Armenio3 : 4
    13Rosario CentralLos Andes1 : 0
    14Union de Santa FeColegiales3 : 1
    15San Martin T.Colon Santa Fe1 : 0
    16River PlateCiudad Bolivar2 : 0
    17Boca JuniorsArgentino MM5 : 0
    18Atl. TucumanAll Boys2 : 1
    19Defensa y JusticiaRacing Cordoba3 : 1
    20Newells Old BoysKimberley1 : 0
    21BelgranoReal Pilar3 : 1
    22Barracas CentralDef. de Belgrano0 : 2
    23Gimnasia MendozaNueva Chicago2 : 0
    24IndependienteSportivo Belgrano2 : 0
    25Estudiantes L.P.Sarmiento de La Banda2 : 1
    26AldosiviGimnasia y Tiro2 : 1
    27Godoy CruzExcursionistas0 : 1
    28Argentinos JrsCentral Norte3 : 0
    29LanusGeneral Lamadrid4 : 0
    30Velez SarsfieldMidland1 : 0
    31InstitutoDeportivo Madryn3 : 0
    32HuracanSan Martin Formosa2 : 1

    1/16-finals
    1San LorenzoQuilmes1 : 0
    2TigreBanfield2 : 0
    3PlatenseInd. Rivadavia2 : 3
    4Central CordobaGimnasia L.P.2 : 1
    5Racing ClubSan Martin S.J.3 : 1
    6Dep. RiestraDeportivo Armenio3 : 2
    7Rosario CentralUnion de Santa Fe0 : 1
    8San Martin T.River Plate0 : 3
    9Boca JuniorsAtl. Tucuman1 : 2
    10Defensa y JusticiaNewells Old Boys0 : 2
    11BelgranoDef. de Belgrano3 : 2
    12Gimnasia MendozaIndependiente1 : 2
    13Estudiantes L.P.Aldosivi1 : 2
    14ExcursionistasArgentinos Jrs0 : 3
    15LanusVelez Sarsfield2 : 0
    16InstitutoHuracan0 : 1

    1/8-finals
    1San LorenzoTigre0 : 1
    2Ind. RivadaviaCentral Cordoba2 : 1
    3Racing ClubDep. Riestra3 : 0
    4Union de Santa FeRiver Plate
    5Atl. TucumanNewells Old Boys
    6BelgranoIndependiente2 : 0
    7AldosiviArgentinos Jrs1 : 2
    8LanusHuracan2 : 0

    Quarter-finals
    1TigreInd. Rivadavia
    2Racing ClubTBD #4
    3TBD #5Belgrano
    4Argentinos JrsLanus

    Semi-finals
    1TBD #1TBD #2
    2TBD #3TBD #4

    Final
    1TBD #1TBD #2