Gamba Osaka vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

11/05/2025 at 02:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Panasonic Stadium Suita (Suita).

J1 League - Round 16
Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	1.94
Ball Possession
40%	60%
Total shots
11	16
Shots on target
5	4
Big Chances
1	4
Corner Kicks
3	3
Passes
73% (277/377)	84% (464/552)
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	1.94
xG on target (xGOT)
0.61	1.38
Total shots
11	16
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
6	8
Blocked Shots
0	4
Shots inside the Box
4	13
Shots outside the Box
7	3
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	4
Corner Kicks
3	3
Touches in opposition box
12	34
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	1
Free Kicks
11	7
Passes
73% (277/377)	84% (464/552)
Long passes
30% (17/56)	46% (30/65)
Passes in final third
68% (98/145)	77% (150/196)
Crosses
25% (3/12)	46% (11/24)
Expected assists (xA)
0.69	1.36
Throw-ins
17	18
Fouls
7	11
Tackles
62% (8/13)	55% (6/11)
Duels won
45	45
Clearances
18	21
Interceptions
6	10
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	5
xGOT faced
1.38	0.61
Goals prevented
0.38	0.61

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
23', Suzuki T. 🟥,
27', Hummet D. ↓, Kurata S. ↑,
33', 0 - 1, Shiotani T. ⚽, Germain R. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Usami T. ↓, Kishimoto T. ↑,
46', Nakamura S. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,
57', Shiotani T. 🟨,
80', Yamashita R. ↓, Jebali I. ↑,
81', Juan Alano ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
90+1', Fukuoka S. ↓, Toyama S. ↑,
90+2', Germain R. ↓, Koshimichi S. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Gamba Osaka
31.2%

Draw
29%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.4%

27.4%

39.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.5%

28.2%

40.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gamba Osaka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↑ (2.82)	3.26 ↓ (3.44)	2.37 ↓ (2.4)	6.1% (6.3%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

What is the prediction for Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Hiroshima will win (votes: 2 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gamba Osaka: 21.7% – 78.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 6 and 5).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 3.
Gamba Osaka is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
Hiroshima's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Hayashi D. (Inactive) Miura G. (Knee Injury) Okunuki K. (Inactive) Welton (Ankle Injury)
There will not play in Hiroshima: Arslan T. (Knee Injury) Kawanami G. (Hand Injury) Nakajima Y. (Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gamba Osaka won 8 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 24:34. (average 1.2:1.7).
Including home matches between the teams, Gamba Osaka won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:11. (average 1.1:1.2).

How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against Sanfrecce Hiroshima?

Gamba Osaka has won 3 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Sanfrecce Hiroshima won against Gamba Osaka?

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has won 2 of their last 6 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima were as follows:

08.12.2024 Gamba Osaka - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3:1

11.09.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka 1:2

30.03.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka 1:1

10.02.2024 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka 1:2

25.11.2023 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gamba Osaka 3:0

Latest results of Gamba Osaka

06.05.2025 Urawa Red Diamonds - Gamba Osaka 0:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Gamba Osaka - Shonan Bellmare 4:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Gamba Osaka - Kyoto Sanga 2:1 ✺

25.04.2025 Tokyo - Gamba Osaka 3:0 ✺

20.04.2025 Yokohama FC - Gamba Osaka 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Sanfrecce Hiroshima

07.05.2025 Shonan Bellmare - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:1 ✺

03.05.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Avispa Fukuoka 2:1 ✺

29.04.2025 Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Albirex Niigata 0:1 ✺

25.04.2025 Urawa Red Diamonds - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1:0 ✺

20.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	24	14	4	6	34:22	12	46
2	Kashima Antlers	24	14	2	8	36:24	12	44
3	Kashiwa Reysol	24	12	8	4	33:23	10	44
4	Kyoto	24	12	6	6	40:29	11	42
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	24	13	3	8	29:18	11	42
6	Machida	24	12	4	8	34:25	9	40
7	Kawasaki Frontale	24	10	8	6	38:26	12	38
8	Urawa Reds	23	10	7	6	32:24	8	37
9	Cerezo Osaka	24	9	7	8	37:33	4	34
10	Gamba Osaka	24	10	4	10	29:31	-2	34
11	Avispa Fukuoka	23	8	7	8	21:23	-2	31
12	Okayama	24	8	6	10	20:22	-2	30
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	24	8	6	10	29:32	-3	30
14	FC Tokyo	24	8	5	11	27:34	-7	29
15	Nagoya Grampus	24	7	7	10	28:33	-5	28
16	Verdy	24	7	7	10	15:24	-9	28
17	Shonan Bellmare	24	6	6	12	20:37	-17	24
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	24	5	6	13	23:32	-9	21
19	Yokohama FC	24	5	4	15	14:30	-16	19
20	Albirex Niigata	24	4	7	13	24:41	-17	19

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League