Result
1:2 penalties
25/04/2026 at 05:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- J1 League - Round 12
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Canal GOAT |
 China | K-Ball |
 Japan | AbemaTV, DAZN Japan |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.11 | 1.50 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 45% | 55% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (206/304) | 74% (291/392) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.11 | 1.50 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.17 | 1.15 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 11 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 7 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 11 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 4 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 4 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 24 | 23 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 68% (206/304) | 74% (291/392) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 27% (13/48) | 34% (22/64) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 61% (78/128) | 57% (45/79) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 28% (7/25) | 36% (5/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.25 | 1.37 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 27 | 22 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 67% (8/12) | 68% (15/22) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 57 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 30 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.15 | 2.17 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.15 | 1.17 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 13', Welton ↓, Yamashita R. ↑,
- 38', Jebali I. ↓, Usami T. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Abe S. ↓, Yamamoto T. ↑,
- 63', Thiago ↓, Matheus Jesus ↑,
- 63', Campbell N. ↓, Matsumoto T. ↑,
- 78', 1 - 0, Matheus Jesus (Penalty Awarded),
- 80', 1 - 1, Hummet D. ⚽, Yamashita R. (A),
- 81', Hatsuse R. ↓, Nakano S. ↑,
- 81', Meshino R. ↓, Minamino H. ↑,
- 85', Dudu Giusti 🟨,
- 87', Hasegawa M. ↓, Yamasaki R. ↑,
- 87', Yamada R. ↓, Iwasaki Y. ↑,
- Penalties (5 - 6)
- 1, Matheus Jesus (Penalty Awarded),
- 1, Minamino H. (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Dudu Giusti (Penalty Awarded),
- 2, Yamamoto T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Sekiguchi M. (Penalty Awarded),
- 3, Yamashita R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Yamasaki R. (Penalty Awarded),
- 4, Usami T. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Arai I. (Penalty Awarded),
- 5, Hummet D. (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Yoneda S. (Penalty Awarded),
- 6, Nakano S. (Penalty Awarded),
Chances of winning
V-Varen Nagasaki
25.5% | Draw
26% | Gamba Osaka
48.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
V-Varen Nagasaki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)Gamba Osaka has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for V-Varen Nagasaki than the current prediction. (+1.3%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gamba Osaka than the current prediction. (-1%)
V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.7 ↑
(3.47) |
3.6 ↓
(3.63) |
1.94 ↓
(2.02) |
6.3%
(5.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka?
Users Predictions:
6 users predict this event. V-Varen Nagasaki will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Gamba Osaka will win (votes: 3 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 2.
- V-Varen Nagasaki has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Gamba Osaka has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Gamba Osaka may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Gamba Osaka has had a series of home games.
- Gamba Osaka is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
- There will not play in V-Varen Nagasaki: Diego Pituca
(Red Card)
Emerson Deocleciano
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Gamba Osaka: Fukuoka S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Handa R.
(Injury)
Ichimori J.
(Finger Injury)
Sasaki S.
(Hamstring Injury)
Uenaka A.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in V-Varen Nagasaki: Teruyama H.
(Injury)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, V-Varen Nagasaki won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:10. (average 1.8:1.7).
- Including home matches between the teams, V-Varen Nagasaki won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 2:2).
How many head-to-head matches has V-Varen Nagasaki won against Gamba Osaka?
V-Varen Nagasaki has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Gamba Osaka won against V-Varen Nagasaki?
Gamba Osaka has won 1 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between V-Varen Nagasaki - Gamba Osaka were as follows:
08.03.2026
Gamba Osaka
-
V-Varen Nagasaki
3:2
Latest results of V-Varen Nagasaki
Latest results of Gamba Osaka
Japan J1 League Table
2026East | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Kashima Antlers | 14 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23:10 | 34 |
| 2 | FC Tokyo | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 29:13 | 32 |
| 3 | Machida | 13 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 21:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Verdy | 13 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 20:16 | 24 |
| 5 | Kawasaki Frontale | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20:25 | 20 |
| 6 | Urawa Reds | 14 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 20:19 | 18 |
| 7 | Mito | 14 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 21:28 | 18 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 21:26 | 16 |
| 9 | Kashiwa Reysol | 14 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 16:21 | 11 |
| 10 | Chiba | 14 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 13:26 | 9 |
West | | Pl | W | W | L | L | | Pts |
| 1 | Vissel Kobe | 13 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 23:18 | 26 |
| 2 | Gamba Osaka | 15 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 28:21 | 25 |
| 3 | Nagoya Grampus | 14 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 25:20 | 25 |
| 4 | Cerezo Osaka | 14 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 17:14 | 21 |
| 5 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 14 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 21:19 | 20 |
| 6 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:19 | 20 |
| 7 | Okayama | 14 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 18:24 | 20 |
| 8 | Kyoto | 13 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 20:18 | 19 |
| 9 | Avispa Fukuoka | 15 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 18:27 | 18 |
| 10 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 14 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 14:22 | 16 |
Promotion ~ J1 League (Play Offs: )
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion ~ J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
