Result
2:1
22/02/2026 at 14:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Claro TV+, HBO Max, Sky+, TNT Sports, Vivo Play, Zapping |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.50 | 0.68 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 33% | 67% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (158/228) | 84% (427/508) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 2.50 | 0.68 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.66 | 0.76 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 4 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 10 | 3 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 69% (158/228) | 84% (427/508) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (19/51) | 55% (30/55) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (70/99) | 70% (86/122) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 20% (5/25) | 21% (3/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 0.83 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 25 | 28 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 5 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 70% (14/20) | 77% (10/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 42 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 29 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.76 | 2.66 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.24 | 0.66 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 45+1', 1 - 0, Romulo ⚽, Tavinho (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 1)
- 46', Ortiz C. ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
- 46', Gabriel Menino ↓, Gabriel Bontempo ↑,
- 61', Tavinho ↓, Vinicius Paiva ↑,
- 63', Barreal A. ↓, Moises ↑,
- 65', 1 - 1, Gabriel Bontempo ⚽, Gabriel Barbosa (A),
- 83', Gabriel Barbosa ↓, Thaciano ↑,
- 85', Romulo ↓, Juninho ↑,
- 88', Juninho 🟨,
- 90', Rony ↓, Miguelito ↑,
- 90+1', Luan Peres 🟨,
- 90+5', Luis Oyama ↓, Eduardo Brock ↑,
- 90+5', Mayk ↓, Caio Dantas ↑,
- 90+6', 2 - 1, Leo Naldi ⚽, Vinicius Paiva (A),
Chances of winning
Grêmio Novorizontino
29.5% | Draw
30.1% | Santos
40.5% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio Novorizontino has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)Santos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (+2.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Santos than the current prediction. (-2.6%)
Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.15 ↑
(2.86) |
3.09 ↑
(3.05) |
2.32 ↓
(2.43) |
7.1%
(8.9%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Santos (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Santos (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Novorizontino is Qualified for Paulista (Play Offs Quarter~finals)
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 2.
- Novorizontino is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Santos has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Novorizontino may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.
- There will not play in Novorizontino: Marlon
(Inactive)
Renato Palm
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Santos: Frias A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Santos: Duarte A.
(Inactive)
Tiquinho Soares
(Inactive)
Ze Rafael
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:16. (average 1.7:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Novorizontino won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:7. (average 2:1.2).
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against Santos?
Grêmio Novorizontino has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Santos won against Grêmio Novorizontino?
Santos has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - Santos were as follows:
10.01.2026
Santos
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
2:1
09.02.2025
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Santos
0:0
23.09.2024
Santos
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
1:1
07.06.2024
Grêmio Novorizontino
-
Santos
3:1
18.02.2024
Santos
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
1:2
Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 0 |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | 2 : 1 |
Final| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Palmeiras (2) | |
