Result
2:1
07/02/2026 at 16:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Paulista - Round 7
- Referee: Vitor Gobi J. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | HBO Max |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.60 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 66% | 34% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (335/407) | 68% (147/217) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.60 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.06 | 1.36 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 23 | 10 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 4 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 7 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 4 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 13 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 20 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 82% (335/407) | 68% (147/217) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 58% (35/60) | 35% (25/72) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 74% (146/197) | 52% (29/56) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (7/40) | 33% (3/9) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.84 | 0.72 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 32 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 20 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (11/16) | 57% (8/14) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 43 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 14 | 44 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.36 | 2.06 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.36 | 0.06 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 19', 0 - 1, Pedro Vitor ⚽, Felipe Garcia (A),
- 35', 1 - 1, Romulo ⚽, Robson (A),
- 41', Joao Paulo 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 46', Maykon Jesus ↓, Juninho ↑,
- 50', Gonzaga W. 🟥,
- 51', Joao Paulo ↓, Augusto ↑,
- 67', Foguinho 🟥,
- 69', Pedrinho ↓, Marcao Silva ↑,
- 69', Felipe Garcia ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
- 69', Pedro Vitor ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
- 75', Tavinho ↓, Helio Borges ↑,
- 75', Ivan Alvarino ↓, Matheus Bianqui ↑,
- 75', Romulo ↓, Ortiz C. ↑,
- 85', Luis Oyama ↓, Caio Dantas ↑,
- 87', Hugo Sanches ↓, Rodrigo Ferreira ↑,
- 90+5', Victor Andrade 🟨,
- 90+6', Patrick 🟨,
- 90+9', 2 - 1, Juninho ⚽,
Chances of winning
Grêmio Novorizontino
49.6% | Draw
30.8% | São Bernardo
19.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Grêmio Novorizontino has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)São Bernardo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Grêmio Novorizontino than the current prediction. (-1.7%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (-1.2%)
Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.89 ↓
(2.01) |
3.04 ↑
(2.68) |
4.65 ↓
(4.85) |
7.4%
(7.7%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo?
Users Predictions:
Grêmio Novorizontino will win
(13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Grêmio Novorizontino will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Paulista (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- Novorizontino is in fantastic form, winning most of its recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- In recent matches, São Bernardo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Novorizontino is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in Novorizontino: Caio Dantas
(Inactive)
Castrillon N.
(Inactive)
Marlon
(Inactive)
Ortiz C.
(Inactive)
Renato Palm
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in São Bernardo: Helder Maciel
(Yellow Cards)
- In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 2:1.5).
- Including home match between the teams, Novorizontino won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.
How many head-to-head matches has Grêmio Novorizontino won against São Bernardo?
Grêmio Novorizontino has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Bernardo won against Grêmio Novorizontino?
São Bernardo has won 0 of their last 1 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo were as follows:
06.02.2025
São Bernardo
-
Grêmio Novorizontino
1:1
Latest results of Grêmio Novorizontino
Latest results of São Bernardo
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Santos (8) | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Portuguesa (4) | Corinthians (5) | 1 : 2 |
| 3 | Palmeiras (2) | Capivariano (7) | 4 : 0 |
| 4 | Bragantino (3) | Sao Paulo (6) | 1 : 2 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Novorizontino (1) | Corinthians (5) | |
| 2 | Palmeiras (2) | Sao Paulo (6) | |
Final
