Result
2:1
28/01/2026 at 19:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 1
- Referee: Sampaio W. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | Flow Eventos |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Globoplay, NSC TV, Premiere, Sky+, TV Globo, TV Verdes Mares, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Mexico | Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz |
 North-central-america | Flow Sports 1 Caribbean |
 Paraguay | Flow Eventos |
 Portugal | Canal 11 |
 Russia | MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones 2, Movistar Plus+ |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Flow |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 World | TV Globo Internacional |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 2.19 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (304/379) | 87% (469/542) |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.72 | 2.19 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.75 | 1.35 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 15 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 9 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 2 | 6 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 15 | 28 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 11 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 80% (304/379) | 87% (469/542) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (20/58) | 41% (16/39) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 63% (45/71) | 76% (117/154) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 20% (4/20) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.49 | 1.26 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 8 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 11 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (23/30) | 94% (17/18) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 51 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 7 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.35 | 1.75 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.35 | -0.25 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 54', 0 - 1, Plata G. ⚽, Pedro (A),
- 56', Evertton Araujo ↓, Jorginho ↑,
- 56', Pedro ↓, de Arrascaeta G. ↑,
- 61', 1 - 1, Luciano ⚽, Diaz E. (A),
- 63', Carrascal J. ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
- 63', Everton ↓, Samuel Lino ↑,
- 71', 2 - 1, Danielzinho ⚽,
- 80', Maik ↓, Soares C. ↑,
- 86', Luciano ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 86', Danielzinho ↓, Pablo Maia ↑,
- 90+1', Jonathan Calleri ↓, Tapia G. ↑,
Chances of winning
São Paulo
24.9% | Draw
30.9% | Flamengo
44.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.5%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+3.1%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-0.5%)
São Paulo - Flamengo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.8 ↑
(3.56) |
3.08 ↓
(3.43) |
2.14 ↑
(2) |
5.4%
(7.4%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for São Paulo - Flamengo?
Users Predictions:
13 users predict this event. São Paulo will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Flamengo will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 15.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 54% – 99.8%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- O/U 2 - over (votes: 2 - 50%) .
- O/U 1.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
- AH 0 - Flamengo (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Flamengo will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 9 high ROI users predict this event. Flamengo (votes: 9 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 1.
- Both teams are currently in poor form.
- Flamengo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Flamengo is seen as the favorite.
- There will not play in São Paulo: Andre Silva
(Knee Injury)
Lucas Moura
(Inactive)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, São Paulo won 7 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 22:29. (average 1.1:1.5).
- Including home matches between the teams, São Paulo won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:13. (average 1.1:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Flamengo?
São Paulo has won 3 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Flamengo won against São Paulo?
Flamengo has won 4 of their last 11 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between São Paulo - Flamengo were as follows:
05.11.2025
São Paulo
-
Flamengo
2:2
12.07.2025
Flamengo
-
São Paulo
2:0
19.01.2025
São Paulo
-
Flamengo
0:0
03.08.2024
São Paulo
-
Flamengo
1:0
17.04.2024
Flamengo
-
São Paulo
2:1
Latest results of São Paulo
Latest results of Flamengo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 21:10 | 11 | 25 |
| 2 | Sao Paulo | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Fluminense | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 20 |
| 4 | Flamengo RJ | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16:9 | 7 | 17 |
| 5 | Bahia | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13:9 | 4 | 17 |
| 6 | Athletico-PR | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 15:13 | 2 | 16 |
| 7 | Coritiba | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 8 | Atletico-MG | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 14:12 | 2 | 14 |
| 9 | Bragantino | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10:10 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Botafogo RJ | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 16:19 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Gremio | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14:14 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Vasco | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15:16 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Internacional | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 9:10 | -1 | 12 |
| 14 | Vitoria | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9:14 | -5 | 11 |
| 15 | Santos | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:16 | -3 | 10 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8:11 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Chapecoense-SC | 9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 10:16 | -6 | 8 |
| 18 | Remo | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 7 |
| 19 | Cruzeiro | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12:20 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | Mirassol | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10:14 | -4 | 6 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
