Sport Recife vs Mirassol – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

25/10/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho (Recife).

Serie A Betano - Round 30
Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, R7, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
China	K-Ball
Mexico	Fanatiz
Usa	Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.37	0.73
Ball Possession
36%	64%
Total shots
11	14
Shots on target
3	5
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
7	1
Passes
82% (249/303)	91% (522/574)
Yellow Cards
1	2
Red Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
0.37	0.73
xG on target (xGOT)
0.38	1.24
Total shots
11	14
Shots on target
3	5
Shots off target
3	3
Blocked Shots
5	6
Shots inside the Box
5	10
Shots outside the Box
6	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	0
Big Chances
1	0
Corner Kicks
7	1
Touches in opposition box
13	26
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	3
Free Kicks
9	6
Passes
82% (249/303)	91% (522/574)
Long passes
62% (31/50)	64% (27/42)
Passes in final third
68% (65/96)	84% (119/142)
Crosses
18% (4/22)	27% (4/15)
Expected assists (xA)
0.45	0.68
Throw-ins
26	12
Fouls
6	9
Tackles
75% (9/12)	74% (14/19)
Duels won
36	39
Clearances
28	31
Interceptions
11	12
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
3	2
xGOT faced
1.24	0.38
Goals prevented
-0.76	-0.62

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (1 - 1)
8', Reinaldo 🟨,
24', Matheusinho 🟥,
28', 0 - 1, Negueba ⚽, Daniel Borges (A),
38', 1 - 1, Derik Lacerda ⚽, Oliveira S. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Aderlan ↓, Matheus Alexandre ↑,
46', Renato Marques ↓, Chico ↑,
46', Reinaldo ↓, Felipe Jonatan ↑,
47', 1 - 2, Guilherme ⚽,
51', Oliveira S. 🟨,
59', Pedro Augusto ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
59', Luan Candido ↓, Igor Carius ↑,
67', Guilherme ↓, Shaylon ↑,
69', Oliveira S. ↓, Atencio R. ↑,
73', Neto Moura ↓, Jose Aldo ↑,
75', Lucas Kal ↓, Hyoran ↑,
79', Jemmes ↓, Luiz Otavio ↑,
90+4', Joao Victor 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Sport Recife
34.3%

Draw
28.7%

Mirassol
37.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.2%

29.1%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.3%

29.2%

37.6%

Sport Recife - Mirassol Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.8 ↓ (2.85)	3.32 ↑ (3.25)	2.56 ↑ (2.51)	4.9% (5.7%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

What is the prediction for Sport Recife - Mirassol?

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Mirassol (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Mirassol will win (9 of 10 users predict this - 90%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.41% – 100%.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).
Recife is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Mirassol is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Recently, Mirassol has had a series of home games.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Health problems) Hyoran (Muscle Injury) Leo Pereira (Inactive) Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Mirassol: Chico (Inactive) Edson Carioca (Muscle Injury) Gabriel (Injury) Lucas Ramon (Inactive) PH (Knee Injury) Yago Felipe (Yellow Cards)
There are questionable in Mirassol: Da Silva (Injury) Matheus Sales (Injury)
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:3. (average 0.4:0.6).
Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.5:0).

How many head-to-head matches has Sport Recife won against Mirassol?

Sport Recife has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Mirassol won against Sport Recife?

Mirassol has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Sport Recife - Mirassol were as follows:

01.06.2025 Mirassol - Sport Recife 1:0

29.09.2024 Mirassol - Sport Recife 0:0

16.06.2024 Sport Recife - Mirassol 1:0

03.11.2023 Mirassol - Sport Recife 2:1

09.07.2023 Sport Recife - Mirassol 0:0

Latest results of Sport Recife

19.10.2025 Internacional RS - Sport Recife 2:0 ✺

15.10.2025 Sport Recife - Ceará 1:1 ✺

08.10.2025 Atlético Mineiro - Sport Recife 3:1 ✺

05.10.2025 Cruzeiro - Sport Recife 1:1 ✺

01.10.2025 Sport Recife - Fluminense 2:2 ✺

Latest results of Mirassol

19.10.2025 Mirassol - São Paulo 3:0 ✺

15.10.2025 Mirassol - Internacional RS 3:1 ✺

08.10.2025 Mirassol - Fluminense 2:1 ✺

04.10.2025 Corinthians - Mirassol 3:0 ✺

01.10.2025 Mirassol - Red Bull Bragantino 1:1 ✺

Brazilian Serie A Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	38	23	10	5	78:27	51	79
2	Palmeiras	38	23	7	8	66:33	33	76
3	Cruzeiro	38	19	13	6	55:31	24	70
4	Mirassol	38	18	13	7	63:39	24	67
5	Fluminense	38	19	7	12	50:39	11	64
6	Botafogo RJ	38	17	12	9	58:38	20	63
7	Bahia	38	17	9	12	50:46	4	60
8	Sao Paulo	38	14	9	15	43:47	-4	51
9	Gremio	38	13	10	15	47:50	-3	49
10	Bragantino	38	14	6	18	45:57	-12	48
11	Atletico-MG	38	12	12	14	43:44	-1	48
12	Santos	38	12	11	15	45:50	-5	47
13	Corinthians	38	12	11	15	42:47	-5	47
14	Vasco	38	13	6	19	55:60	-5	45
15	Vitoria	38	11	12	15	35:52	-17	45
16	Internacional	38	11	11	16	44:57	-13	44
17	Ceara	38	11	10	17	34:40	-6	43
18	Fortaleza	38	11	10	17	43:58	-15	43
19	Juventude	38	9	8	21	35:69	-34	35
20	Sport Recife	38	2	11	25	28:75	-47	17

      Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
      Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
      Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet