Result
2:2
16/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 20
- Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
China | K-Ball |
Israel | Sport 2 |
Mexico | Fanatiz |
Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.79 | 1.33 |
Ball Possession |
---|
33% | 67% |
Total shots |
---|
8 | 18 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 8 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
70% (168/239) | 86% (422/493) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
3 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.79 | 1.33 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
1.33 | 1.42 |
Total shots |
---|
8 | 18 |
Shots on target |
---|
5 | 8 |
Shots off target |
---|
3 | 5 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
0 | 5 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
6 | 10 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
2 | 8 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Headed Goals |
---|
1 | 1 |
Big Chances |
---|
2 | 2 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
4 | 11 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
19 | 27 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
0 | 1 |
Free Kicks |
---|
18 | 14 |
Passes |
---|
70% (168/239) | 86% (422/493) |
Long passes |
---|
43% (20/46) | 50% (20/40) |
Passes in final third |
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55% (41/75) | 71% (97/136) |
Crosses |
---|
50% (9/18) | 28% (7/25) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.85 | 0.91 |
Throw-ins |
---|
17 | 16 |
Fouls |
---|
17 | 19 |
Tackles |
---|
84% (16/19) | 91% (10/11) |
Duels won |
---|
55 | 49 |
Clearances |
---|
37 | 15 |
Interceptions |
---|
8 | 9 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 1 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
6 | 3 |
xGOT faced |
---|
1.42 | 1.33 |
Goals prevented |
---|
-0.58 | -0.67 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Lucas Lima ⚽,
- 44', Rivera C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Igor Carius ↓, Kevyson ↑,
- 46', Rodriguinho ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 50', 2 - 0, Derik Lacerda ⚽, Matheus Alexandre (A),
- 51', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
- 57', Dinenno J. ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 57', Franco A. ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
- 57', Ferreira ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
- 60', Maik 🟨,
- 67', 2 - 1, Lucas Moura ⚽, Henrique Carmo (A),
- 68', Luan Silva ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 73', Matheusinho ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
- 74', Derik Lacerda ↓, Pablo ↑,
- 81', Kevyson 🟨,
- 82', Leo Pereira ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
- 90+1', Lucas Lima ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 90+2', 2 - 2, Maik ⚽,
Chances of winning
Sport Recife 43.2% | Draw 31.4% | São Paulo 25.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Recife's performance.São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-15.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Recife that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+16.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Sport Recife - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
2.34 ↓ (3.38) |
3.27 ↑ (3.11) |
4.08 ↑ (2.26) |
-2.1% (6%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Sport Recife - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Recife: 6.6% – 60%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.25 - Recife (votes: 6 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sport Recife will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.
- Recife has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Recife: Denis
(Knee Injury)
Hereda
(Health problems)
Oliveira S.
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.5:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.8:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Sport Recife won against São Paulo?
Sport Recife has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Sport Recife?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sport Recife - São Paulo were as follows:
29.03.2025
São Paulo
-
Sport Recife
0:0
01.06.2023
São Paulo
-
Sport Recife
2:3
17.05.2023
Sport Recife
-
São Paulo
0:2
Latest results of Sport Recife
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Flamengo RJ | 19 | 13 | 4 | 2 | 36:9 | 27 | 43 |
2 | Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 24:15 | 9 | 39 |
3 | Cruzeiro | 20 | 11 | 5 | 4 | 32:14 | 18 | 38 |
4 | Bahia | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 25:17 | 8 | 33 |
5 | Botafogo RJ | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 23:11 | 12 | 29 |
6 | Mirassol | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 29:19 | 10 | 29 |
7 | Sao Paulo | 20 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 24:22 | 2 | 29 |
8 | Fluminense | 18 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 23:24 | -1 | 27 |
9 | Bragantino | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 22:26 | -4 | 27 |
10 | Ceara | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 19:19 | 0 | 25 |
11 | Atletico-MG | 18 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 20:21 | -1 | 24 |
12 | Internacional | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22:26 | -4 | 24 |
13 | Gremio | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 23 |
14 | Corinthians | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19:25 | -6 | 22 |
15 | Santos | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 20:29 | -9 | 21 |
16 | Vasco | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 25:26 | -1 | 19 |
17 | Vitoria | 20 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 18:24 | -6 | 19 |
18 | Juventude | 19 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 17:38 | -21 | 18 |
19 | Fortaleza | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 19:31 | -12 | 15 |
20 | Sport Recife | 18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12:27 | -15 | 10 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet