Result
2:2
16/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie A Betano - Round 20
- Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Brazil | Amazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 China | K-Ball |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 1.33 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 33% | 67% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (168/239) | 86% (422/493) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.79 | 1.33 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.33 | 1.42 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 8 | 18 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 0 | 5 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 10 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 2 | 8 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 19 | 27 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 18 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 70% (168/239) | 86% (422/493) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 43% (20/46) | 50% (20/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (41/75) | 71% (97/136) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 50% (9/18) | 28% (7/25) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.85 | 0.91 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 17 | 16 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 19 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 84% (16/19) | 91% (10/11) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 55 | 49 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 37 | 15 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 9 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.42 | 1.33 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.58 | -0.67 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 5', 1 - 0, Lucas Lima ⚽,
- 44', Rivera C. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Igor Carius ↓, Kevyson ↑,
- 46', Rodriguinho ↓, Lucas Moura ↑,
- 50', 2 - 0, Derik Lacerda ⚽, Matheus Alexandre (A),
- 51', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
- 57', Dinenno J. ↓, Andre Silva ↑,
- 57', Franco A. ↓, Ferraresi N. ↑,
- 57', Ferreira ↓, Henrique Carmo ↑,
- 60', Maik 🟨,
- 67', 2 - 1, Lucas Moura ⚽, Henrique Carmo (A),
- 68', Luan Silva ↓, Bobadilla D. ↑,
- 73', Matheusinho ↓, Pedro Augusto ↑,
- 74', Derik Lacerda ↓, Pablo ↑,
- 81', Kevyson 🟨,
- 82', Leo Pereira ↓, Chrystian Barletta ↑,
- 90+1', Lucas Lima ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 90+2', 2 - 2, Maik ⚽,
Chances of winning
Sport Recife
43.2% | Draw
31.4% | São Paulo
25.4% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Recife's performance.São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-15.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Recife that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+16.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Sport Recife - São Paulo Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.34 ↓
(3.38) |
3.27 ↑
(3.11) |
4.08 ↑
(2.26) |
-2.1%
(6%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Sport Recife - São Paulo?
Users Predictions:
12 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Recife: 6.6% – 60%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- AH +0.25 - Recife (votes: 6 - 100%).
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sport Recife will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.
- Recife has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- There will not play in Recife: Denis
(Knee Injury)
Hereda
(Health problems)
Oliveira S.
(Ankle Injury)
- There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri
(Knee Injury)
Luiz Gustavo
(Contusion)
Oscar
(Back Injury)
Robert Arboleda
(Muscle Injury)
Ryan Francisco
(Knee Injury)
Wendell
(Muscle Injury)
- There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto
(Knee Injury)
- In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.5:1.3).
- Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.8:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Sport Recife won against São Paulo?
Sport Recife has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has São Paulo won against Sport Recife?
São Paulo has won 1 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Sport Recife - São Paulo were as follows:
29.03.2025
São Paulo
-
Sport Recife
0:0
01.06.2023
São Paulo
-
Sport Recife
2:3
17.05.2023
Sport Recife
-
São Paulo
0:2
Latest results of Sport Recife
Latest results of São Paulo
Brazilian Serie A Table
2025 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Palmeiras | 28 | 19 | 4 | 5 | 53:26 | 27 | 61 |
| 2 | Flamengo RJ | 29 | 18 | 7 | 4 | 56:16 | 40 | 61 |
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 42:21 | 21 | 56 |
| 4 | Mirassol | 30 | 15 | 10 | 5 | 52:31 | 21 | 55 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 40:34 | 6 | 49 |
| 6 | Botafogo RJ | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 39:26 | 13 | 46 |
| 7 | Fluminense | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 36:35 | 1 | 44 |
| 8 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 33:33 | 0 | 41 |
| 9 | Vasco | 29 | 11 | 6 | 12 | 46:41 | 5 | 39 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | 32:35 | -3 | 39 |
| 11 | Bragantino | 29 | 10 | 6 | 13 | 34:44 | -10 | 36 |
| 12 | Atletico-MG | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 27:32 | -5 | 36 |
| 13 | Gremio | 29 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 30:37 | -7 | 36 |
| 14 | Ceara | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 27:28 | -1 | 35 |
| 15 | Internacional | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 35:43 | -8 | 35 |
| 16 | Santos | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 28:40 | -12 | 31 |
| 17 | Vitoria | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 27:44 | -17 | 31 |
| 18 | Fortaleza | 29 | 7 | 6 | 16 | 27:44 | -17 | 27 |
| 19 | Juventude | 29 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 23:53 | -30 | 26 |
| 20 | Sport Recife | 29 | 2 | 11 | 16 | 22:46 | -24 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet
