Sport Recife vs São Paulo – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Brazilian Serie A Sport Recife - São Paulo
Result
2:2
16/08/2025 at 17:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Serie A Betano - Round 20
  • Referee: Torezin L. (Bra)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
brazilBrazilAmazon Prime Video, Caze TV, Claro TV+, Globoplay, PlayPlus, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
chinaChinaK-Ball
israelIsraelSport 2
mexicoMexicoFanatiz
usaUsaFanatiz

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.791.33
Ball Possession
33%67%
Total shots
818
Shots on target
58
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
411
Passes
70% (168/239)86% (422/493)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
0.791.33
xG on target (xGOT)
1.331.42
Total shots
818
Shots on target
58
Shots off target
35
Blocked Shots
05
Shots inside the Box
610
Shots outside the Box
28
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
11
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
411
Touches in opposition box
1927
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
01
Free Kicks
1814
Passes
70% (168/239)86% (422/493)
Long passes
43% (20/46)50% (20/40)
Passes in final third
55% (41/75)71% (97/136)
Crosses
50% (9/18)28% (7/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.850.91
Throw-ins
1716
Fouls
1719
Tackles
84% (16/19)91% (10/11)
Duels won
5549
Clearances
3715
Interceptions
89
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
63
xGOT faced
1.421.33
Goals prevented
-0.58-0.67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 5', 1 - 0, Lucas Lima ,
  • 44', Rivera C. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Igor Carius , Kevyson ,
  • 46', Rodriguinho , Lucas Moura ,
  • 50', 2 - 0, Derik Lacerda , Matheus Alexandre (A),
  • 51', Derik Lacerda 🟨,
  • 57', Dinenno J. , Andre Silva ,
  • 57', Franco A. , Ferraresi N. ,
  • 57', Ferreira , Henrique Carmo ,
  • 60', Maik 🟨,
  • 67', 2 - 1, Lucas Moura , Henrique Carmo (A),
  • 68', Luan Silva , Bobadilla D. ,
  • 73', Matheusinho , Pedro Augusto ,
  • 74', Derik Lacerda , Pablo ,
  • 81', Kevyson 🟨,
  • 82', Leo Pereira , Chrystian Barletta ,
  • 90+1', Lucas Lima , Silva J. ,
  • 90+2', 2 - 2, Maik ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Sport Recife
43.2%
Draw
31.4%
São Paulo
25.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
27.9% 30.3% 41.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7% 30.1% 42.1%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Sport Recife has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.3%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sport Recife's performance.
  • São Paulo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.4%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and São Paulo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sport Recife than the current prediction. (-15.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sport Recife that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Paulo than the current prediction. (+16.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that São Paulo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Sport Recife - São Paulo Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.34
    (3.38)
    3.27
    (3.11)
    4.08
    (2.26)
    -2.1%
    (6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
  • What is the prediction for Sport Recife - São Paulo?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Recife will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). São Paulo will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Recife: 6.6%60%.
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH +0.25 - Recife (votes: 6 - 100%).
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Sport Recife will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 20 in the zone Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Recife won 1.
    • Recife has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • São Paulo is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Recife may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in Recife: Denis (Knee Injury) Hereda (Health problems) Oliveira S. (Ankle Injury)
    • There will not play in São Paulo: Jonathan Calleri (Knee Injury) Luiz Gustavo (Contusion) Oscar (Back Injury) Robert Arboleda (Muscle Injury) Ryan Francisco (Knee Injury) Wendell (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Recife: Ze Roberto (Knee Injury)
    • In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Recife won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 10:24. (average 0.5:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Recife won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 7:12. (average 0.8:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Sport Recife - São Paulo were as follows:
    29.03.2025 São Paulo - Sport Recife 0:0
    01.06.2023 São Paulo - Sport Recife 2:3
    17.05.2023 Sport Recife - São Paulo 0:2
    Latest results of Sport Recife
    10.08.2025 Grêmio - Sport Recife 0:1
    02.08.2025 Sport Recife - Bahia 0:0
    26.07.2025 Sport Recife - Santos 2:2
    20.07.2025 Sport Recife - Botafogo RJ 0:1
    Latest results of São Paulo
    Brazilian Serie A Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Flamengo RJ19134236:92743
    2Palmeiras18123324:15939
    3Cruzeiro20115432:141838
    4Bahia1896325:17833
    5Botafogo RJ1885523:111229
    6Mirassol1878329:191029
    7Sao Paulo2078524:22229
    8Fluminense1883723:24-127
    9Bragantino2083922:26-427
    10Ceara1974819:19025
    11Atletico-MG1866620:21-124
    12Internacional1966722:26-424
    13Gremio1965819:25-623
    14Corinthians2057819:25-622
    15Santos19631020:29-921
    16Vasco19541025:26-119
    17Vitoria20310718:24-619
    18Juventude19531117:38-2118
    19Fortaleza19361019:31-1215
    20Sport Recife18171012:27-1510

          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage: )
          Relegation ~ Serie B Superbet