St. Pauli vs Hamburger SV – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

23/01/2026 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

Millerntor-Stadion (Hamburg).

Bundesliga - Round 19
Referee: Welz T. (Ger)
Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Azam Sports 1, CANAL+ Sport 1, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football, ZAP
Albania	Tring Sport 2
Angola	Z Sports 1
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Setanta Sports 2
Australia	beIN Connect
Austria	Sky Go Austria, Sky Sport Austria Top Event, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1
Azerbaijan	Setanta Sports 2
Bulgaria	Diema Sport 3, Play Diema Xtra
Canada	DAZN Canada, OneSoccer
Chile	Disney+
China	Migu, QQ Sports
Colombia	Disney+
Croatia	SportKlub 3
Czech-republic	Nova Sport 3, Oneplay
Denmark	TV3 MAX, Viaplay
Europe	Setanta Sports 2 Baltic
Finland	Veikkaus TV, Viaplay 2 Urheilu, Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Premium
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 2, Free
Georgia	Setanta Sports 2
Germany	Sky Go Germany, Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Bundesliga UHD, Sky Sport Top Event, WOW
Greece	Nova Sports 3
Hong-kong	beIN Sports 2, M Plus Live, Now Player
Hungary	Arena 4, Net4+
Iceland	Viaplay
India	Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Israel	Sport 1
Italy	NOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport Max
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kazakhstan	Setanta Sports 2
Kyrgyzstan	Setanta Sports 2
Laos	beIN Connect
Malaysia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, Sooka
Malta	GO TV, TSN Malta 5
Mexico	Sky Sport
Moldova	Setanta Sports 2
Mongolia	Premier Sports 5
Netherlands	Viaplay
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	RUSH Sports 2 Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
North-macedonia	MaxTV GO
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay, V Sport 1
Pakistan	Tapmad
Papua-new-guinea	TVWan Sports
Peru	Disney+
Philippines	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3, beIN SPORTS MAX
Poland	Eleven Sports 3
Portugal	DAZN 1, DAZN / App
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 4, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 4
Russia	Okko Sport
Saudi-arabia	MBC Shahid
Serbia	Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2
Singapore	beIN Sports 3
Slovakia	Voyo
Slovenia	Sport TV1
South-africa	SABC Plus, SABC Sport
South-korea	Coupang Play
Spain	DAZN Espana, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 2
Suriname	SCCN
Sweden	Viaplay, V Sport Fotbool, V Sport Premium
Switzerland	Sky Sport Bundesliga 1, Sky Sport Top Event
Tajikistan	Setanta Sports 2
Thailand	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Turkey	S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 1
Turkmenistan	Setanta Sports 2
Ukraine	Kyivstar TV, Setanta Sports+
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Uzbekistan	Setanta Sports 2
Venezuela	Disney+
Vietnam	TV 360
World	Onefootball

Match Stats


Expected goals (xG)
0.27	0.36
Ball possession
43%	57%
Total shots
8	5
Shots on target
3	2
Big chances
0	0
Corner kicks
5	4
Passes
77% (327/423)	85% (495/581)
Yellow cards
1	1
Expected goals (xG)
0.27	0.36
xG on target (xGOT)
0.38	0.19
Total shots
8	5
Shots on target
3	2
Shots off target
4	1
Blocked shots
1	2
Shots inside the box
5	2
Shots outside the box
3	3
Hit the woodwork
0	0
Big chances
0	0
Corner kicks
5	4
Touches in opposition box
16	12
Accurate through passes
0	1
Offsides
0	3
Free kicks
13	15
Passes
77% (327/423)	85% (495/581)
Long passes
27% (14/52)	49% (32/65)
Passes in final third
57% (58/102)	54% (54/100)
Crosses
24% (4/17)	8% (1/13)
Expected assists (xA)
0.56	1.27
Throw ins
23	15
Fouls
15	13
Tackles
56% (9/16)	50% (7/14)
Duels won
48	56
Clearances
23	37
Interceptions
6	8
Errors leading to shot
0	1
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper saves
2	3
xGOT faced
0.19	0.38
Goals prevented
0.19	0.38

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
14', Rossing-Lelesiit A. ↓, Balde F. ↑,
24', Remberg N. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Kaars M. ↓, Jones R.J. ↑,
65', Pereira Lage M. ↓, Sinani D. ↑,
65', Dzwigala A. ↓, Irvine J. ↑,
68', Balde F. ↓, Dompe J. ↑,
68', Downs D. ↓, Glatzel R. ↑,
68', Konigsdorffer R. ↓, Philippe R. ↑,
88', Vieira F. ↓, Lokonga A. S. ↑,

Chances of winning

St. Pauli
33.3%

Draw
32.8%

Hamburger SV
33.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.6%

28.5%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.9%

28.3%

31.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

St. Pauli has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that St. Pauli's form might have worsened.

Hamburger SV has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for St. Pauli, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (-2.2%)

St. Pauli - Hamburger SV Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.4)	2.91 ↓ (3.34)	2.82 ↓ (2.98)	4.7% (5.2%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for St. Pauli - Hamburger SV?

Users Predictions: 42 users predict this event. St. Pauli will win (votes: 12 - 28.6%). Hamburg will win (votes: 9 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 21 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 34.9% – 65.1%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 16 high ROI users predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Hamburg (votes: 8 - 50%). Tie (votes: 5 - 31.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

BTTS - yes (votes: 8 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - St. Pauli (1.96) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

DC - St. Pauli (1.50) (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 3.5 - over (votes: 2 - 66.7%) .

O/U 2 - over (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 7 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 4 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

O/U 3 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .

DNB - St. Pauli (1.91) (votes: 2 - 50%) .

AH +0.25 - Hamburg (2.25) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 29 high ROI users predict this event. St. Pauli (votes: 12 - 41.4%). Hamburg (votes: 12 - 41.4%). Tie (votes: 5 - 17.2%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

This time, only outsiders will meet in a game (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga and 14).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 2.
Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
There will not play in St. Pauli: Hountondji A. (Ankle Injury) Metcalfe C. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Groin Injury)
There will not play in Hamburg: Poulsen Y. (Ankle Injury) Ramos G. (Inactive)
There are questionable in St. Pauli: Irvine J. (Foot Injury)
In the last 13 head-to-head matches, St. Pauli won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 21:17. (average 1.6:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, St. Pauli won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 11:8. (average 1.8:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has St. Pauli won against Hamburger SV?

St. Pauli has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Hamburger SV won against St. Pauli?

Hamburger SV has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between St. Pauli - Hamburger SV were as follows:

29.08.2025 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 0:2

03.05.2024 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 1:0

01.12.2023 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 2:2

21.04.2023 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 4:3

14.10.2022 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 3:0

Latest results of St. Pauli

17.01.2026 Borussia Dortmund - St. Pauli 3:2 ✺

14.01.2026 Wolfsburg - St. Pauli 2:1 ✺

04.01.2026 St. Pauli - Werder Bremen 0:0 ✺

21.12.2025 Mainz - St. Pauli 0:0 ✺

13.12.2025 St. Pauli - Heidenheim 2:1 ✺

Latest results of Hamburger SV

17.01.2026 Hamburger SV - Borussia Mönchengladbach 0:0 ✺

10.01.2026 Freiburg - Hamburger SV 2:1 ✺

20.12.2025 Hamburger SV - Eintracht Frankfurt 1:1 ✺

13.12.2025 Hoffenheim - Hamburger SV 4:1 ✺

07.12.2025 Hamburger SV - Werder Bremen 3:2 ✺

German Bundesliga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Bayern Munich	23	19	3	1	85:21	64	60
2	Dortmund	23	15	7	1	49:22	27	52
3	Hoffenheim	23	14	4	5	49:30	19	46
4	Stuttgart	23	13	4	6	44:32	12	43
5	RB Leipzig	23	12	5	6	44:32	12	41
6	Bayer Leverkusen	22	12	3	7	43:28	15	39
7	Freiburg	23	9	6	8	34:37	-3	33
8	Eintracht Frankfurt	23	8	7	8	46:49	-3	31
9	Union Berlin	23	7	7	9	29:37	-8	28
10	Augsburg	23	8	4	11	28:41	-13	28
11	Hamburger SV	22	6	8	8	25:32	-7	26
12	FC Koln	23	6	6	11	33:39	-6	24
13	Mainz	23	5	7	11	26:38	-12	22
14	B. Monchengladbach	23	5	7	11	26:39	-13	22
15	Wolfsburg	23	5	5	13	33:49	-16	20
16	St. Pauli	23	5	5	13	22:40	-18	20
17	Werder Bremen	23	4	7	12	23:44	-21	19
18	Heidenheim	23	3	5	15	22:51	-29	14

      Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Bundesliga (Relegation)
      Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga