Hamburger SV vs St. Pauli – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football German Bundesliga Hamburger SV - St. Pauli
Result
0:2
29/08/2025 at 14:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Bundesliga - Round 2
  • Referee: Dingert C. (Ger)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
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Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.481.42
Ball Possession
48%52%
Total shots
517
Shots on target
26
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
25
Passes
82% (364/443)82% (391/477)
Yellow Cards
33
Red Cards
10
Expected Goals (xG)
0.481.42
xG on target (xGOT)
0.181.61
Total shots
517
Shots on target
26
Shots off target
25
Blocked Shots
16
Shots inside the Box
211
Shots outside the Box
36
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
22
Corner Kicks
25
Touches in opposition box
1025
Accurate through passes
22
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
1813
Passes
82% (364/443)82% (391/477)
Long passes
40% (23/58)48% (29/61)
Passes in final third
58% (55/95)70% (103/148)
Crosses
20% (2/10)17% (3/18)
Expected assists (xA)
0.800.91
Throw-ins
1626
Fouls
1319
Tackles
63% (10/16)63% (17/27)
Duels won
5949
Clearances
3423
Interceptions
1010
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
42
xGOT faced
1.610.18
Goals prevented
-0.39-0.82

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (0 - 1)
  • 7', Dzwigala A. 🟨,
  • 19', 0 - 1, Dzwigala A. , Pereira Lage M. (A),
  • 26', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
  • 37', Sinani D. 🟨,
  • 2nd Half (0 - 1)
  • 54', Pyrka A. 🟨,
  • 56', Sahiti E. , Poulsen Y. ,
  • 56', Rossing-Lelesiit A. , Dompe J. ,
  • 59', Pyrka A. , Saliakas M. ,
  • 60', 0 - 2, Hountondji A. , Fujita J. (A),
  • 64', Poulsen Y. 🟨,
  • 69', Hountondji A. , Kaars M. ,
  • 75', Elfadli D. , Philippe R. ,
  • 75', Capaldo N. , Stange O. ,
  • 77', Gocholeishvili G. 🟨,
  • 82', Konigsdorffer R. , Mikelbrencis W. ,
  • 82', Pereira Lage M. , Metcalfe C. ,
  • 82', Dzwigala A. , Ritzka L. ,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Hamburger SV
31.6%
Draw
31.6%
St. Pauli
36.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
42.3% 27.5% 30.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.1% 29.3% 28.3%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Hamburger SV has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.7%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Hamburger SV's form might have worsened.
  • St. Pauli has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting St. Pauli's recent form is better than expected.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hamburger SV than the current prediction. (+13.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Hamburger SV, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for St. Pauli than the current prediction. (-8.5%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for St. Pauli, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
  • Hamburger SV - St. Pauli Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.44
    (2.26)
    3.31
    (3.47)
    2.8
    (3.17)
    -4.9%
    (4.6%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • What is the prediction for Hamburger SV - St. Pauli?
  • Users Predictions: 47 users predict this event. Hamburg will win (votes: 18 - 38.3%). St. Pauli will win (votes: 13 - 27.7%). It will Tie (votes: 16 - 34%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Hamburg: 24.4%52.2%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 13 high ROI users predict this event. Hamburg (votes: 3 - 23.1%). St. Pauli (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • AH -0.25 - St. Pauli (votes: 3 - 100%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
  • Preview Facts
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 3.
    • Recent form of Hamburg has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).
    • St. Pauli is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Recently, Hamburg has had a series of away games.
    • In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
    • There will not play in St. Pauli: Ceesay A. (Foot Injury) Irvine J. (Foot Injury) Jones R.J. (Shoulder Injury) Mets K. (Knee Injury) Nemeth D. (Muscle Injury)
    • There are questionable in Hamburg: Glatzel R. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Jatta B. (Thigh Injury)
    • In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Hamburg won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 17:19. (average 1.4:1.6).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Hamburg won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:8. (average 1.5:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Hamburger SV - St. Pauli were as follows:
    03.05.2024 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 1:0
    01.12.2023 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 2:2
    21.04.2023 Hamburger SV - St. Pauli 4:3
    14.10.2022 St. Pauli - Hamburger SV 3:0
    Latest results of Hamburger SV
    Latest results of St. Pauli
    09.08.2025 St. Pauli - Verona 1:0
    02.08.2025 Coventry City - St. Pauli 2:2
    26.07.2025 St. Pauli - Nice 2:0
    German Bundesliga Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Bayern Munich22009:276
    2Eintracht Frankfurt22007:256
    3FC Koln22005:146
    4Dortmund21106:334
    5St. Pauli21105:324
    6Wolfsburg21104:224
    7Augsburg21015:413
    8Stuttgart21012:203
    9Hoffenheim21013:4-13
    10Union Berlin21012:4-23
    11RB Leipzig21012:6-43
    12Bayer Leverkusen20114:5-11
    13Mainz20111:2-11
    14B. Monchengladbach20110:1-11
    15Hamburger SV20110:2-21
    16Werder Bremen20114:7-31
    17Heidenheim20021:5-40
    18Freiburg20022:7-50

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Bundesliga (Relegation)
          Relegation ~ 2. Bundesliga