Lech Poznań vs Stal Mielec – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Polish Ekstraklasa Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec
Result
3:1
08/03/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 24
  • Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 3
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
polandPolandCANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1x2
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.930.46
Ball Possession
59%41%
Goal Attempts
2411
Shots on Goal
143
Shots off Goal
24
Blocked Shots
84
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
56
Shots inside the Box
145
Shots outside the Box
106
Hit the Woodwork
00
Goalkeeper Saves
211
Free Kicks
911
Offsides
51
Fouls
119
Yellow Cards
22
Throw-ins
169
Touches in the Opposition Box
2512
Passes
89% (477/534)86% (308/360)
Passes in the final third
81% (131/161)70% (57/81)
Crosses
31% (4/13)43% (6/14)
Tackles
75% (12/16)56% (9/16)
Clearances Total
1320
Interceptions
67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 21', 1 - 0, Carstensen R. , Gholizadeh A. (A),
  • 22', 2 - 0, Hakans D. , Ishak M. (A),
  • 41', 2 - 1, Dadok R. , Getinger K. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Hakans D. , Walemark P. ,
  • 51', Senger M. 🟨,
  • 54', Walemark P. 🟨,
  • 58', 3 - 1, Sousa A. ,
  • 65', Gholizadeh A. , Fiabema B. ,
  • 68', Carstensen R. 🟨,
  • 73', Murawski R. , Jagiello F. ,
  • 73', Milic A. , Pereira J. ,
  • 73', Krykun S. , Beauguel J. ,
  • 82', Domanski M. , Hannola P. ,
  • 82', Dadok R. , Gerbowski F. ,
  • 82', Guillaumier M. , Tkacz D. ,
  • 86', Sousa A. , Lisman K. ,
  • 86', Senger M. , Wolsztynski L. ,
  • 90+2', Jaunzems A. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Lech Poznań
61.8%
Draw
22.4%
Stal Mielec
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
61.5% 22.2% 16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63% 21.7% 15.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
  • Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.51
    (1.51)
    4.19
    (4.18)
    5.92
    (5.7)
    6.8%
    (7.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 14 - 93.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 80.6%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Lech won 2.
    • Recent matches Lech is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Stal Mielec is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Lech could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Lech is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Knap K. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lech: Walemark P. (Injury)
    • Last 10 head-to-head matches Lech won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.2:0.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Lech won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:6 (average 1.5:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec were as follows:
    30.08.2024 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:2
    01.04.2024 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:0
    23.09.2023 Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec 2:1
    27.01.2023 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:0
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    Latest results of Stal Mielec
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Gornik Zabrze1061315:8719
    2Cracovia953117:10718
    3Korona Kielce1053214:7718
    4Jagiellonia953116:12418
    5Wisla Plock952211:6517
    6Legia943212:6615
    7Lech Poznan943217:16115
    8Zaglebie934220:13713
    9Radomiak Radom1033417:18-112
    10Motor Lublin925211:14-311
    11Rakow932410:13-311
    12Widzew Lodz1031613:13010
    13Pogon Szczecin1031614:19-510
    14Termalica B-B1023513:17-49
    15Arka Gdynia102355:14-99
    16GKS Katowice1022611:21-108
    17Piast Gliwice81437:9-27
    18Lechia Gdansk1032518:25-76

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Division 1