Lech Poznań vs Stal Mielec – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Polish Ekstraklasa Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec
Result
3:1
08/03/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
  • POLAND: Ekstraklasa - Round 24
  • Referee: Sylwestrzak D. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 3
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 4, MAXtv To Go
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
polandPolandCANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Sport 3, Canal+ Sport Online, Ekstraklasa TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 1x2
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
2.930.46
Ball Possession
59%41%
Goal Attempts
2411
Shots on Goal
143
Shots off Goal
24
Blocked Shots
84
Big Chances
51
Corner Kicks
56
Shots inside the Box
145
Shots outside the Box
106
Hit the Woodwork
00
Goalkeeper Saves
211
Free Kicks
911
Offsides
51
Fouls
119
Yellow Cards
22
Throw-ins
169
Touches in the Opposition Box
2512
Passes
89% (477/534)86% (308/360)
Passes in the final third
81% (131/161)70% (57/81)
Crosses
31% (4/13)43% (6/14)
Tackles
75% (12/16)56% (9/16)
Clearances Total
1320
Interceptions
67

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 1)
  • 21', 1 - 0, Carstensen R. , Gholizadeh A. (A),
  • 22', 2 - 0, Hakans D. , Ishak M. (A),
  • 41', 2 - 1, Dadok R. , Getinger K. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 0)
  • 46', Hakans D. , Walemark P. ,
  • 51', Senger M. 🟨,
  • 54', Walemark P. 🟨,
  • 58', 3 - 1, Sousa A. ,
  • 65', Gholizadeh A. , Fiabema B. ,
  • 68', Carstensen R. 🟨,
  • 73', Murawski R. , Jagiello F. ,
  • 73', Milic A. , Pereira J. ,
  • 73', Krykun S. , Beauguel J. ,
  • 82', Domanski M. , Hannola P. ,
  • 82', Dadok R. , Gerbowski F. ,
  • 82', Guillaumier M. , Tkacz D. ,
  • 86', Sousa A. , Lisman K. ,
  • 86', Senger M. , Wolsztynski L. ,
  • 90+2', Jaunzems A. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Lech Poznań
61.8%
Draw
22.4%
Stal Mielec
15.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
61.5% 22.2% 16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63% 21.7% 15.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Lech Poznań has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)
  • Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lech Poznań than the current prediction. (+1.2%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
  • Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.51
    (1.51)
    4.19
    (4.18)
    5.92
    (5.7)
    6.8%
    (7.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
  • What is the prediction for Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec?
  • Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Lech will win (votes: 14 - 93.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 6.7%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Lech: 80.6%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • One of the leader and one of the outsider will meet in this game (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: ) and 14).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Lech won 2.
    • Recent matches Lech is playing mutable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Stal Mielec is in a poor shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).
    • Lech could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • In this match Lech is a favorite.
    • There will not play in Lech: Dagerstal F. (Injury)
    • There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury) Knap K. (Injury)
    • There are questionable in Lech: Walemark P. (Injury)
    • Last 10 head-to-head matches Lech won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 12:8 (average 1.2:0.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Lech won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6:6 (average 1.5:1.5).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec were as follows:
    30.08.2024 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:2
    01.04.2024 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:0
    23.09.2023 Lech Poznań - Stal Mielec 2:1
    27.01.2023 Stal Mielec - Lech Poznań 0:0
    Latest results of Lech Poznań
    Latest results of Stal Mielec
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Cracovia22006:156
    2Gornik Zabrze22003:126
    3Radomiak Radom21106:244
    4Termalica B-B21014:223
    5Wisla Plock11002:023
    6Motor Lublin11001:013
    7Widzew Lodz11001:013
    8Rakow11001:013
    9Arka Gdynia20111:2-11
    10Legia00000:000
    11Piast Gliwice10010:1-10
    12GKS Katowice10010:1-10
    13Zaglebie10010:1-10
    14Korona Kielce10010:2-20
    15Lech Poznan10011:4-30
    16Pogon Szczecin10011:5-40
    17Jagiellonia10010:4-40
    18Lechia Gdansk10011:2-1-5

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Division 1