Result
2:2
28/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 30
- Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Poland | CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 8 |
 Ukraine | Kyivstar TV |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.70 | 2.77 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 42% | 58% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (245/321) | 85% (382/450) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.70 | 2.77 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.54 | 3.38 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 8 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 11 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 10 | 18 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 3 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 23 | 41 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (245/321) | 85% (382/450) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 45% (22/49) | 54% (27/50) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 65% (63/97) | 63% (63/100) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 14% (2/14) | 59% (10/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.44 | 1.83 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 16 | 23 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 53% (8/15) | 57% (4/7) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 43 | 45 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 28 | 25 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.38 | 0.54 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 1.38 | -0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 8', Kolan J. 🟨,
- 27', 1 - 0, Kurminowski D. ⚽, Radwanski A. (A),
- 34', Szmyt K. 🟨,
- 43', Nalepa M. 🟨,
- 45+1', Kolan J. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Kurminowski D. ↓, Kludka B. ↑,
- 54', Radwanski A. 🟨,
- 55', 1 - 1, Jaunzems A. ⚽, Wolsztynski L. (A),
- 56', Kadzior D. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
- 56', Gerbowski F. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
- 59', Radwanski A. ↓, Adamski R. ↑,
- 65', 1 - 2, Dadok R. ⚽, Wolkowicz K. (A),
- 66', 2 - 2, Madrzyk J. (Own goal),
- 75', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
- 75', Wolkowicz K. ↓, Getinger K. ↑,
- 81', Wlazlo P. ↓, Senger M. ↑,
- 83', Senger M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Zagłębie Lubin
57.4% | Draw
26.6% | Stal Mielec
16% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zagłębie Lubin's performance.Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stal Mielec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-12.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zagłębie Lubin that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+12.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stal Mielec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↓
(2.1) |
3.66 ↑
(3.48) |
5.82 ↑
(3.24) |
1.4%
(7.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Zagłębie Lubin will win
(10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 1.
- Recent matches Zagłębie Lubin is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Stal Mielec is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
- Stal Mielec could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- Zagłębie Lubin will have a poor advantage in this game.
- There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M.
(Injury)
Szafranek W.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Beauguel J.
(Inactive)
- Last 9 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:16 (average 1.7:1.8).
- Including matches at home between the teams Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Zagłębie Lubin won against Stal Mielec?
Zagłębie Lubin has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Stal Mielec won against Zagłębie Lubin?
Stal Mielec has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec were as follows:
27.10.2024
Stal Mielec
-
Zagłębie Lubin
2:2
15.03.2024
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Stal Mielec
0:0
18.09.2023
Stal Mielec
-
Zagłębie Lubin
4:2
19.05.2023
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Stal Mielec
2:0
04.11.2022
Stal Mielec
-
Zagłębie Lubin
3:0
Latest results of Zagłębie Lubin
Latest results of Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Wisla Plock | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10:4 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Cracovia | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10:5 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12:9 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Korona Kielce | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10:10 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:13 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Radomiak Radom | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Termalica B-B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Arka Gdynia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Legia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:9 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:15 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Zaglebie | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12:10 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Rakow | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Piast Gliwice | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
