Zagłębie Lubin vs Stal Mielec – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Polish Ekstraklasa Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec
Result
2:2
28/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Ekstraklasa - Round 30
  • Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
finlandFinlandVeikkaus TV
polandPolandCANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV
serbiaSerbiaArena Sport 8
ukraineUkraineKyivstar TV
worldWorldOnefootball

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
0.702.77
Ball Possession
42%58%
Total shots
1322
Shots on target
38
Big Chances
04
Corner Kicks
35
Passes
76% (245/321)85% (382/450)
Yellow Cards
41
Expected Goals (xG)
0.702.77
xG on target (xGOT)
0.543.38
Total shots
1322
Shots on target
38
Shots off target
411
Blocked Shots
63
Shots inside the Box
1018
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Big Chances
04
Corner Kicks
35
Touches in opposition box
2341
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
13
Free Kicks
1211
Passes
76% (245/321)85% (382/450)
Long passes
45% (22/49)54% (27/50)
Passes in final third
65% (63/97)63% (63/100)
Crosses
14% (2/14)59% (10/17)
Expected assists (xA)
0.441.83
Throw-ins
1623
Fouls
1112
Tackles
53% (8/15)57% (4/7)
Duels won
4345
Clearances
2825
Interceptions
77
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
01
Goalkeeper Saves
61
xGOT faced
3.380.54
Goals prevented
1.38-0.46

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 8', Kolan J. 🟨,
  • 27', 1 - 0, Kurminowski D. , Radwanski A. (A),
  • 34', Szmyt K. 🟨,
  • 43', Nalepa M. 🟨,
  • 45+1', Kolan J. , Makowski T. ,
  • 2nd Half (1 - 2)
  • 46', Kurminowski D. , Kludka B. ,
  • 54', Radwanski A. 🟨,
  • 55', 1 - 1, Jaunzems A. , Wolsztynski L. (A),
  • 56', Kadzior D. , Domanski M. ,
  • 56', Gerbowski F. , Dadok R. ,
  • 59', Radwanski A. , Adamski R. ,
  • 65', 1 - 2, Dadok R. , Wolkowicz K. (A),
  • 66', 2 - 2, Madrzyk J. (Own goal),
  • 75', Wolsztynski L. , Assayag R. ,
  • 75', Wolkowicz K. , Getinger K. ,
  • 81', Wlazlo P. , Senger M. ,
  • 83', Senger M. 🟨,

Highlights

Chances of winning


Zagłębie Lubin
57.4%
Draw
26.6%
Stal Mielec
16%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
44.4% 26.8% 28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5% 26.7% 28.7%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zagłębie Lubin's performance.
  • Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stal Mielec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-12.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zagłębie Lubin that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+12.7%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stal Mielec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    1.76
    (2.1)
    3.66
    (3.48)
    5.82
    (3.24)
    1.4%
    (7.2%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
  • What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec?
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 2 - 100%).
  • Users Predictions: Zagłębie Lubin will win (10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
    Confidence interval (95%): 100%100%.
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).
    • Last 5 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 1.
    • Recent matches Zagłębie Lubin is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
    • Stal Mielec is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
    • Stal Mielec could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
    • Zagłębie Lubin will have a poor advantage in this game.
    • There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M. (Injury) Szafranek W. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M. (Knee Injury)
    • There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Beauguel J. (Inactive)
    • Last 9 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:16 (average 1.7:1.8).
    • Including matches at home between the teams Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.8:0.8).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec were as follows:
    27.10.2024 Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin 2:2
    15.03.2024 Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec 0:0
    18.09.2023 Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin 4:2
    19.05.2023 Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec 2:0
    04.11.2022 Stal Mielec - Zagłębie Lubin 3:0
    Latest results of Stal Mielec
    Polish Ekstraklasa Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Gornik Zabrze1061315:8719
    2Cracovia953117:10718
    3Korona Kielce1053214:7718
    4Wisla Plock952211:6517
    5Jagiellonia852114:10417
    6Lech Poznan842215:14114
    7Legia833211:6512
    8Radomiak Radom932415:16-111
    9Zaglebie824216:13310
    10Widzew Lodz931513:12110
    11Motor Lublin82429:12-310
    12Pogon Szczecin931514:18-410
    13Termalica B-B1023513:17-49
    14Arka Gdynia92345:10-59
    15Rakow82249:13-48
    16GKS Katowice1022611:21-108
    17Piast Gliwice81437:9-27
    18Lechia Gdansk1032518:25-76

          Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
          Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
          Relegation ~ Division 1