Result
2:2
28/04/2025 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 30
- Referee: Krasny S. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
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Croatia | Arena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go |
Finland | Veikkaus TV |
Poland | CANAL+ Sport 3, CANAL+ Sport 5, Ekstraklasa TV |
Serbia | Arena Sport 8 |
Ukraine | Kyivstar TV |
World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
---|
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.70 | 2.77 |
Ball Possession |
---|
42% | 58% |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 22 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 8 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 4 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
3 | 5 |
Passes |
---|
76% (245/321) | 85% (382/450) |
Yellow Cards |
---|
4 | 1 |
Expected Goals (xG) |
---|
0.70 | 2.77 |
xG on target (xGOT) |
---|
0.54 | 3.38 |
Total shots |
---|
13 | 22 |
Shots on target |
---|
3 | 8 |
Shots off target |
---|
4 | 11 |
Blocked Shots |
---|
6 | 3 |
Shots inside the Box |
---|
10 | 18 |
Shots outside the Box |
---|
3 | 4 |
Hit the Woodwork |
---|
0 | 0 |
Big Chances |
---|
0 | 4 |
Corner Kicks |
---|
3 | 5 |
Touches in opposition box |
---|
23 | 41 |
Accurate through passes |
---|
0 | 0 |
Offsides |
---|
1 | 3 |
Free Kicks |
---|
12 | 11 |
Passes |
---|
76% (245/321) | 85% (382/450) |
Long passes |
---|
45% (22/49) | 54% (27/50) |
Passes in final third |
---|
65% (63/97) | 63% (63/100) |
Crosses |
---|
14% (2/14) | 59% (10/17) |
Expected assists (xA) |
---|
0.44 | 1.83 |
Throw-ins |
---|
16 | 23 |
Fouls |
---|
11 | 12 |
Tackles |
---|
53% (8/15) | 57% (4/7) |
Duels won |
---|
43 | 45 |
Clearances |
---|
28 | 25 |
Interceptions |
---|
7 | 7 |
Errors leading to shot |
---|
0 | 0 |
Errors leading to goal |
---|
0 | 1 |
Goalkeeper Saves |
---|
6 | 1 |
xGOT faced |
---|
3.38 | 0.54 |
Goals prevented |
---|
1.38 | -0.46 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 0)
- 8', Kolan J. 🟨,
- 27', 1 - 0, Kurminowski D. ⚽, Radwanski A. (A),
- 34', Szmyt K. 🟨,
- 43', Nalepa M. 🟨,
- 45+1', Kolan J. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Kurminowski D. ↓, Kludka B. ↑,
- 54', Radwanski A. 🟨,
- 55', 1 - 1, Jaunzems A. ⚽, Wolsztynski L. (A),
- 56', Kadzior D. ↓, Domanski M. ↑,
- 56', Gerbowski F. ↓, Dadok R. ↑,
- 59', Radwanski A. ↓, Adamski R. ↑,
- 65', 1 - 2, Dadok R. ⚽, Wolkowicz K. (A),
- 66', 2 - 2, Madrzyk J. (Own goal),
- 75', Wolsztynski L. ↓, Assayag R. ↑,
- 75', Wolkowicz K. ↓, Getinger K. ↑,
- 81', Wlazlo P. ↓, Senger M. ↑,
- 83', Senger M. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Zagłębie Lubin 57.4% | Draw 26.6% | Stal Mielec 16% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Zagłębie Lubin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Zagłębie Lubin's performance.Stal Mielec has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.8%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Stal Mielec might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (-12.9%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Zagłębie Lubin that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Stal Mielec than the current prediction. (+12.7%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Stal Mielec could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now (Initially) |
1.76 ↓ (2.1) |
3.66 ↑ (3.48) |
5.82 ↑ (3.24) |
1.4% (7.2%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Zagłębie Lubin will win
(10 of 10 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Division 1).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 1.
- Recent matches Zagłębie Lubin is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).
- Stal Mielec is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).
- Stal Mielec could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- Zagłębie Lubin will have a poor advantage in this game.
- There will not play in Zagłębie Lubin: Grzybek M.
(Injury)
Szafranek W.
(Knee Injury)
- There will not play in Stal Mielec: Ehmann M.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Stal Mielec: Beauguel J.
(Inactive)
- Last 9 head-to-head matches Zagłębie Lubin won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 15:16 (average 1.7:1.8).
- Including matches at home between the teams Zagłębie Lubin won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 7:3 (average 1.8:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Zagłębie Lubin won against Stal Mielec?
Zagłębie Lubin has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Stal Mielec won against Zagłębie Lubin?
Stal Mielec has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Zagłębie Lubin - Stal Mielec were as follows:
27.10.2024
Stal Mielec
-
Zagłębie Lubin
2:2
15.03.2024
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Stal Mielec
0:0
18.09.2023
Stal Mielec
-
Zagłębie Lubin
4:2
19.05.2023
Zagłębie Lubin
-
Stal Mielec
2:0
04.11.2022
Stal Mielec
-
Zagłębie Lubin
3:0
Latest results of Zagłębie Lubin
Latest results of Stal Mielec
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
1 | Cracovia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:1 | 5 | 6 |
2 | Radomiak Radom | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 4 |
3 | Termalica B-B | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:2 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Wisla Plock | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:0 | 2 | 3 |
5 | Gornik Zabrze | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 3 |
6 | Motor Lublin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
7 | Widzew Lodz | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
8 | Rakow | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
9 | Arka Gdynia | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
10 | Piast Gliwice | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
11 | Legia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 | 0 |
12 | GKS Katowice | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
13 | Zaglebie | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
14 | Korona Kielce | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:2 | -2 | 0 |
15 | Lech Poznan | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
16 | Pogon Szczecin | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:5 | -4 | 0 |
17 | Jagiellonia | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:4 | -4 | 0 |
18 | Lechia Gdansk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | -5 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1