Result
2:3
17/08/2025 at 14:15 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Ekstraklasa - Round 5
- Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Premium 3 |
 Canada | beIN Connect |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 5 |
 Poland | CANAL+ 360, CANAL+ Sport 4, Ekstraklasa TV |
 Usa | beIN Connect, Fanatiz |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 2.28 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (271/352) | 86% (357/416) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 2.28 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.57 | 3.87 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 10 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 1 | 6 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 21 | 24 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 14 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (271/352) | 86% (357/416) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 37% (19/52) | 57% (23/40) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 60% (62/103) | 72% (102/142) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 30% (6/20) | 53% (9/17) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.10 | 1.84 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 21 | 14 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 14 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 78% (14/18) | 53% (8/15) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 19 | 43 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 3.87 | 1.57 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.87 | -0.43 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 3', 1 - 0, Jimenez J. ⚽, Mini (A),
- 8', Bulat M. 🟨,
- 14', 1 - 1, Ameyaw M. ⚽, Pienko T. (A),
- 2nd Half (1 - 2)
- 46', Ameyaw M. ↓, Diaby-Fadiga L. ↑,
- 46', Repka O. ↓, Barath P. ↑,
- 46', Tudor F. ↓, Silva J. ↑,
- 46', Kasperkiewicz A. ↓, Masoero L. ↑,
- 56', Mini ↓, Kurzawa R. ↑,
- 66', Pienko T. ↓, Lopez I. ↑,
- 66', Fassbender M. ↓, Strzalek I. ↑,
- 66', Hilbrycht D. ↓, Boboc R. ↑,
- 67', 1 - 2, Bulat M. ⚽,
- 72', Diaby-Fadiga L. 🟨,
- 74', 1 - 3, Rocha L. ⚽, Lopez I. (A),
- 80', Kubica K. 🟨,
- 80', Barath P. 🟨,
- 81', 2 - 3, Strzalek I. ⚽,
- 84', Adriano ↓, Otieno E. ↑,
- 86', Ambrosiewicz M. ↓, Jakubik W. ↑,
- 89', Isik G. 🟨,
- 89', Lopez I. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Termalica Nieciecza
25.1% | Draw
27.6% | Raków Częstochowa
47.3% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Termalica Nieciecza has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.3%)Raków Częstochowa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Termalica Nieciecza than the current prediction. (+1.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raków Częstochowa than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.76 ↑
(3.5) |
3.38 ↑
(3.15) |
1.98 ↓
(2.08) |
6.7%
(8.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
What is the prediction for Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Termalica (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Raków (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
Users Predictions:
Raków Częstochowa will win
(10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1.
- Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
- Termalica may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Raków might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Raków: Kochergin V.
(Knee Injury)
Lopez I.
(Knee Injury)
Silva J.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Termalica: Zapolnik K.
(Injury)
- In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Termalica won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:15. (average 0.8:1.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Termalica won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 1:10. (average 0.2:2).
How many head-to-head matches has Termalica Nieciecza won against Raków Częstochowa?
Termalica Nieciecza has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Raków Częstochowa won against Termalica Nieciecza?
Raków Częstochowa has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Termalica Nieciecza - Raków Częstochowa were as follows:
Latest results of Termalica Nieciecza
Latest results of Raków Częstochowa
Polish Ekstraklasa Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Wisla Plock | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10:4 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Cracovia | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13:9 | 4 | 14 |
| 3 | Gornik Zabrze | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10:5 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Jagiellonia | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12:9 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Korona Kielce | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 11 |
| 6 | Lech Poznan | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10:10 | 0 | 10 |
| 7 | Pogon Szczecin | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11:13 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 | Radomiak Radom | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 8 |
| 9 | Termalica B-B | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10:10 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6:9 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Arka Gdynia | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5:8 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Legia | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6:4 | 2 | 7 |
| 13 | Widzew Lodz | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 9:9 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | GKS Katowice | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10:15 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Zaglebie | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 12:10 | 2 | 6 |
| 16 | Rakow | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6:9 | -3 | 6 |
| 17 | Piast Gliwice | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 2:5 | -3 | 3 |
| 18 | Lechia Gdansk | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 12:19 | -7 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Relegation ~ Division 1
