Ordabasy vs Tobol Kostanay – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Kazakh Cup Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay
04/10/2025 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Chances of winning


Ordabasy
23.3%
Draw
29.5%
Tobol Kostanay
47.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
20.6% 32.1% 47.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.9% 31% 48.9%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Ordabasy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.7%)
  • Tobol Kostanay has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ordabasy than the current prediction. (-3.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tobol Kostanay than the current prediction. (+1.7%)
  • Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    3.91
    (4.51)
    3.09
    (2.9)
    1.93
    (1.97)
    9.7%
    (7.4%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
  • Preview Facts
    • Neutral location - Kaysar Arena.
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ordabasy won 1.
    • Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.
    • In this match, Tobol is the team to beat.
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Ordabasy won 5 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 21:26. (average 1.1:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Ordabasy won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.2:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay were as follows:
    24.09.2025 Tobol Kostanay - Ordabasy 1:0
    17.08.2025 Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay 2:3
    19.10.2024 Tobol Kostanay - Ordabasy 1:0
    12.05.2024 Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay 1:0
    25.02.2024 Ordabasy - Tobol Kostanay 1:2
    Latest results of Ordabasy
    28.09.2025 Yelimay Semey - Ordabasy 2:1
    24.09.2025 Tobol Kostanay - Ordabasy 1:0
    13.09.2025 Ordabasy - Zhenis 2:1
    28.08.2025 Ordabasy - Kyzylzhar 1:0
    24.08.2025 Ulytau - Ordabasy 2:1
    Latest results of Tobol Kostanay
    28.09.2025 Tobol Kostanay - Kaisar 1:0
    24.09.2025 Tobol Kostanay - Ordabasy 1:0
    19.09.2025 Tobol Kostanay - Astana 2:3
    13.09.2025 Atyrau - Tobol Kostanay 1:0
    29.08.2025 Zhenis - Tobol Kostanay 1:1
    Draw
    Main

    1/8-finals
    1KyzylzharKaisar Kyzylorda1 : 0
    2UlytauYelimay Semey0 : 3
    3OrdabasyKhan Tengri2 : 0
    4Kairat AlmatyKaspij Aktau3 : 0
    5TuranAtyrau2 : 0
    6TobolZhetysu Taldykorgan1 : 0
    7ZhenisAktobe1 : 0
    8OkzhetpesFC Astana1 : 2

    Quarter-finals
    1KyzylzharYelimay Semey1 : 0
    2OrdabasyKairat Almaty1 : 0
    3TuranTobol0 : 2
    4ZhenisFC Astana2 : 1

    Semi-finals
    1KyzylzharOrdabasy0 : 1, 0 : 0
    2TobolZhenis1 : 1, 2 : 1

    Final
    1OrdabasyTobol