Tokyo Verdy vs Fagiano Okayama – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football Japan J1 League Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama
Result
4:2
20/09/2025 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • J1 League - Round 30
  • Where to Watch on TV:
chinaChinaK-Ball
japanJapanDAZN Japan

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.750.88
Ball Possession
44%56%
Total shots
913
Shots on target
58
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
25
Passes
62% (190/306)68% (256/379)
Yellow Cards
01
Expected Goals (xG)
1.750.88
xG on target (xGOT)
3.502.54
Total shots
913
Shots on target
58
Shots off target
31
Blocked Shots
14
Shots inside the Box
59
Shots outside the Box
34
Hit the Woodwork
00
Headed Goals
11
Big Chances
30
Corner Kicks
25
Touches in opposition box
1322
Accurate through passes
00
Offsides
12
Free Kicks
1211
Passes
62% (190/306)68% (256/379)
Long passes
30% (25/83)23% (15/65)
Passes in final third
42% (38/91)52% (76/145)
Crosses
27% (4/15)12% (3/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.910.41
Throw-ins
2034
Fouls
1112
Tackles
64% (14/22)50% (9/18)
Duels won
7164
Clearances
4317
Interceptions
84
Errors leading to shot
10
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
61
xGOT faced
2.543.50
Goals prevented
0.54-0.50

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (2 - 2)
  • 8', 1 - 0, Someno I. , Morita K. (A),
  • 37', 1 - 1, Esaka A. , Kato H. (A),
  • 45+2', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
  • 45+3', 1 - 2, Ichimi K. , Tabei R. (A),
  • 45+4', 2 - 2, Hirao H. , Morita K. (A),
  • 2nd Half (2 - 0)
  • 46', Ichimi K. , Lucao ,
  • 46', Arai Y. , Fukuda Y. ,
  • 63', Esaka A. , Iwabuchi H. ,
  • 63', Yanagi T. , Matsumoto M. ,
  • 69', 3 - 2, Fukuda Y. ,
  • 73', Kato H. , Werik Popo ,
  • 74', Someno I. , Teranuma S. ,
  • 74', Matsuhashi Y. , Uchida Y. ,
  • 76', Hirao H. , Toyama S. ,
  • 81', Kamiya Yuta , Motoyama H. ,
  • 81', Morita K. , Inami T. ,
  • 88', 4 - 2, Taniguchi H. , Fukuda Y. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning


Tokyo Verdy
46.4%
Draw
32.2%
Fagiano Okayama
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
39.8% 31.3% 28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8% 32.1% 28.2%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tokyo Verdy's performance.
  • Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)
  • Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fagiano Okayama might be facing challenges that affect their performance.
  • ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-5.6%)
  • Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tokyo Verdy that the model has picked up on.
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+6.9%)
  • Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fagiano Okayama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
  • Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)
    2.11
    (2.4)
    3.12
    (3.05)
    4.77
    (3.3)
    0.4%
    (4.8%)

  • The most likely Over/Under: 1.75
  • What is the prediction for Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama?
  • Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Okayama will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Tokyo Verdy: 21.7%78.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Tokyo Verdy (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.
  • Preview Facts
    • An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 11).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo Verdy won 3.
    • Tokyo Verdy has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
    • Okayama has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
    • Tokyo Verdy is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
    • There will not play in Tokyo Verdy: Hirakawa R. (Yellow Cards) Yamada G. (Knee Injury) Yamami H. (Knee Injury)
    • There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (Yellow Cards)
    • In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tokyo Verdy won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 1.1:0.9).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo Verdy won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1:1.3).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:
    29.04.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy 0:1
    26.08.2023 Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama 2:3
    11.06.2023 Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy 1:2
    23.10.2022 Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama 2:0
    Latest results of Tokyo Verdy
    Latest results of Fagiano Okayama
    Japan J1 League Table
    2025
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Kashima Antlers32204852:282464
    2Vissel Kobe32186843:271660
    3Kyoto32178756:342259
    4Kashiwa Reysol321512547:331457
    5Machida32167948:331555
    6Sanfrecce Hiroshima32167937:221555
    7Kawasaki Frontale321410859:441552
    8Urawa Reds321310939:32749
    9Gamba Osaka321541346:47-149
    10Cerezo Osaka3211101149:47243
    11Shimizu S-Pulse3210101234:38-440
    12Okayama321171428:34-640
    13FC Tokyo321171435:45-1040
    14Avispa Fukuoka329101331:37-637
    15Nagoya Grampus32991438:47-936
    16Verdy32991420:35-1536
    17Yokohama F. Marinos32871732:43-1131
    18Yokohama FC32871721:36-1531
    19Shonan Bellmare32671928:56-2825
    20Albirex Niigata32491929:54-2521

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