Tokyo Verdy vs Fagiano Okayama – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

20/09/2025 at 05:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Ajinomoto Stadium (Tokyo).

J1 League - Round 30
Where to Watch on TV:


China	K-Ball
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
1.75	0.88
Ball Possession
44%	56%
Total shots
9	13
Shots on target
5	8
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
2	5
Passes
62% (190/306)	68% (256/379)
Yellow Cards
0	1
Expected Goals (xG)
1.75	0.88
xG on target (xGOT)
3.50	2.54
Total shots
9	13
Shots on target
5	8
Shots off target
3	1
Blocked Shots
1	4
Shots inside the Box
5	9
Shots outside the Box
3	4
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
3	0
Corner Kicks
2	5
Touches in opposition box
13	22
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
1	2
Free Kicks
12	11
Passes
62% (190/306)	68% (256/379)
Long passes
30% (25/83)	23% (15/65)
Passes in final third
42% (38/91)	52% (76/145)
Crosses
27% (4/15)	12% (3/25)
Expected assists (xA)
0.91	0.41
Throw-ins
20	34
Fouls
11	12
Tackles
64% (14/22)	50% (9/18)
Duels won
71	64
Clearances
43	17
Interceptions
8	4
Errors leading to shot
1	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
6	1
xGOT faced
2.54	3.50
Goals prevented
0.54	-0.50

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (2 - 2)
8', 1 - 0, Someno I. ⚽, Morita K. (A),
37', 1 - 1, Esaka A. ⚽, Kato H. (A),
45+2', Suzuki Y. 🟨,
45+3', 1 - 2, Ichimi K. ⚽, Tabei R. (A),
45+4', 2 - 2, Hirao H. ⚽, Morita K. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Ichimi K. ↓, Lucao ↑,
46', Arai Y. ↓, Fukuda Y. ↑,
63', Esaka A. ↓, Iwabuchi H. ↑,
63', Yanagi T. ↓, Matsumoto M. ↑,
69', 3 - 2, Fukuda Y. ⚽,
73', Kato H. ↓, Werik Popo ↑,
74', Someno I. ↓, Teranuma S. ↑,
74', Matsuhashi Y. ↓, Uchida Y. ↑,
76', Hirao H. ↓, Toyama S. ↑,
81', Kamiya Yuta ↓, Motoyama H. ↑,
81', Morita K. ↓, Inami T. ↑,
88', 4 - 2, Taniguchi H. ⚽, Fukuda Y. (A),

Highlights

Chances of winning

Tokyo Verdy
46.4%

Draw
32.2%

Fagiano Okayama
21.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.8%

31.3%

28.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.8%

32.1%

28.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tokyo Verdy has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tokyo Verdy's performance.

Fagiano Okayama has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Fagiano Okayama might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tokyo Verdy than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tokyo Verdy that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fagiano Okayama than the current prediction. (+6.9%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Fagiano Okayama could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.4)	3.12 ↑ (3.05)	4.77 ↑ (3.3)	0.4% (4.8%)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

What is the prediction for Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Tokyo Verdy will win (votes: 6 - 50%). Okayama will win (votes: 3 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tokyo Verdy: 21.7% – 78.3%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Tokyo Verdy (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:0.

Preview Facts

An outsider and a mid-table team will play in this game (ranked 16 and 11).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tokyo Verdy won 3.
Tokyo Verdy has suffered several defeats recently (last 5 games: 0 wins).
Okayama has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Tokyo Verdy is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.
There will not play in Tokyo Verdy: Hirakawa R. (Yellow Cards) Yamada G. (Knee Injury) Yamami H. (Knee Injury)
There will not play in Okayama: Sato R. (Yellow Cards)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tokyo Verdy won 9 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 21:18. (average 1.1:0.9).
Including home matches between the teams, Tokyo Verdy won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 10:13. (average 1:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Tokyo Verdy won against Fagiano Okayama?

Tokyo Verdy has won 3 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Fagiano Okayama won against Tokyo Verdy?

Fagiano Okayama has won 1 of their last 4 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama were as follows:

29.04.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy 0:1

26.08.2023 Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama 2:3

11.06.2023 Fagiano Okayama - Tokyo Verdy 1:2

23.10.2022 Tokyo Verdy - Fagiano Okayama 2:0

Latest results of Tokyo Verdy

15.09.2025 Tokyo - Tokyo Verdy 1:0 ✺

30.08.2025 Yokohama FC - Tokyo Verdy 0:0 ✺

23.08.2025 Tokyo Verdy - Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0:3 ✺

16.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Tokyo Verdy 1:0 ✺

13.08.2025 Tokyo Verdy - Nagoya Grampus 1:2 ✺

Latest results of Fagiano Okayama

13.09.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Nagoya Grampus 0:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Kyoto Sanga - Fagiano Okayama 5:0 ✺

23.08.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Shonan Bellmare 1:0 ✺

17.08.2025 Fagiano Okayama - Kashiwa Reysol 2:1 ✺

10.08.2025 Gamba Osaka - Fagiano Okayama 0:3 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Kashima Antlers	34	20	6	8	52:28	24	66
2	Kashiwa Reysol	34	17	12	5	53:33	20	63
3	Kyoto	34	17	10	7	58:36	22	61
4	Vissel Kobe	34	18	7	9	43:28	15	61
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	34	17	8	9	39:23	16	59
6	Kawasaki Frontale	34	15	11	8	65:48	17	56
7	Machida	34	16	8	10	49:35	14	56
8	Urawa Reds	34	14	10	10	40:36	4	52
9	Gamba Osaka	34	15	5	14	46:52	-6	50
10	Cerezo Osaka	34	12	10	12	52:50	2	46
11	FC Tokyo	34	11	9	14	36:46	-10	42
12	Verdy	34	11	9	14	22:35	-13	42
13	Avispa Fukuoka	34	10	11	13	32:37	-5	41
14	Shimizu S-Pulse	34	10	11	13	38:44	-6	41
15	Okayama	34	11	8	15	30:37	-7	41
16	Nagoya Grampus	34	10	10	14	42:50	-8	40
17	Yokohama F. Marinos	34	9	7	18	36:44	-8	34
18	Yokohama FC	34	8	8	18	23:39	-16	32
19	Shonan Bellmare	34	6	8	20	29:58	-29	26
20	Albirex Niigata	34	4	10	20	30:56	-26	22

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League