Result
0:1 penalties
20/08/2025 at 20:50 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Leagues Cup - Play Offs - Quarter-finals
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Canada | Amazon Prime Video |
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video |
 Mexico | Amazon Prime Video, TUDN |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | MLS Season Pass, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 0.24 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (357/415) | 82% (334/407) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.76 | 0.24 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 4 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 2 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 8 | 1 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 2 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 2 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 25 | 12 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 17 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 86% (357/415) | 82% (334/407) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 57% (27/47) | 48% (22/46) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 78% (110/141) | 60% (56/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 23% (5/22) | 9% (1/11) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.11 | 0.23 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 17 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 73% (8/11) | 67% (14/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 33 | 52 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 16 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 10 | 13 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.08 | 0.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.08 | 0.12 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 45+2', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 59', Castro H. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
- 63', Brekalo D. 🟨,
- 64', Schlegel R. 🟨,
- 67', Muriel L. ↓, Enrique R. ↑,
- 76', Atuesta E. 🟨,
- 76', Angulo J. ↓, Herrera H. ↑,
- 81', Pasalic M. ↓, Taifi Z. ↑,
- 85', Brekalo D. ↓, Smith K. ↑,
- 85', Atuesta E. ↓, Gerbet J. ↑,
- 86', Ruiz M. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
- 86', Paulinho ↓, Morales R. ↑,
- Penalties (5 - 6)
- 1, Vega A. (Pen),
- 1, Ojeda M. (Pen),
- 2, Pereira F. (Pen),
- 2, Jansson R. (Pen),
- 3, Morales R. (Pen),
- 3, Freeman A. (Pen),
- 4, Gallardo J. (Pen),
- 4, Gerbet J. (Pen),
- 5, Romero F. (Pen),
- 5, Smith K. (Pen),
- 6, Castro N. (Pen),
- 6, Enrique R. (Pen),
- 7, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. (Pen),
- 7, Gallese P. (Pen),
Chances of winning
Toluca
39.7% | Draw
25.4% | Orlando City
34.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Toluca's form might have worsened.Orlando City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Orlando City's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+12.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Toluca, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Orlando City than the current prediction. (-11.8%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Orlando City, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Toluca - Orlando City Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.35 ↑
(1.92) |
3.7 ↑
(3.52) |
2.71 ↓
(3.82) |
6.5%
(6.7%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Toluca - Orlando City?
Users Predictions:
10 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Orlando City will win (votes: 4 - 40%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 9.6% – 70.4%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Orlando City (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- Neutral location - Dignity Health Sports Park.
- At the moment, both teams are looking strong and ready to play.
- Toluca may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- Recently, the opponents have had a series of home games.
- In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
- Recently, the teams have not faced each other.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Orlando City?
Toluca has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Orlando City won against Toluca?
Orlando City has won of their last 0 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Orlando City were as follows:
Latest results of Orlando City
Draw
Play OffsQuarter-finals| 1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Pachuca | 2 : 1 |
| 2 | Seattle Sounders | Puebla | 1 : 0 |
| 3 | Inter Miami | Tigres UANL | 2 : 1 |
| 4 | Toluca | Orlando City | 0 : 1 |
Semi-finals| 1 | Los Angeles Galaxy | Seattle Sounders | |
| 2 | Inter Miami | Orlando City | |
Final3rd place
