Result
1:1
22/03/2026 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 12
- Referee: Arce V. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | FOX One, FOX Sports, Tubi TV |
 Usa | TUDN App, TUDN |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.56 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 47% | 53% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (366/429) | 83% (405/486) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 0.56 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.51 | 0.91 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 16 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 5 | 1 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 9 | 4 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 4 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 27 | 9 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 2 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 12 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 85% (366/429) | 83% (405/486) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (26/40) | 46% (26/57) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 73% (103/142) | 67% (76/114) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 22% (4/18) | 33% (2/6) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.92 | 0.42 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 15 | 8 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 12 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 56% (10/18) | 67% (18/27) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 44 | 61 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 13 | 26 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.91 | 0.51 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.09 | -0.49 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 1)
- 10', del Villar E. 🟨,
- 35', Rondon S. 🟨,
- 35', Pereira F. 🟨,
- 45+1', 0 - 1, Romero F. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (1 - 0)
- 50', Barreto S. D. 🟨,
- 57', Helinho ↓, Arce F. ↑,
- 57', Dominguez A. ↓, Valencia E. ↑,
- 67', Guzman V. ↓, Montiel E. ↑,
- 72', 1 - 1, Montiel E. ⚽, Kenedy (A),
- 74', Vega A. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
- 74', Simon S. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
- 78', Arce F. 🟥,
- 81', Paulinho 🟨,
- 84', Kenedy ↓, Quinones L. ↑,
- 84', Idrissi O. ↓, Alvarez G. ↑,
- 84', Barreto S. D. ↓, Alfaro C. ↑,
- 88', Quinones L. 🟨,
- 90+1', Paulinho ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
Chances of winning
Pachuca
25.6% | Draw
25.4% | Toluca
49.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Pachuca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (-0.7%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+0.7%)
Pachuca - Toluca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
3.63 ↓
(3.8) |
3.7 ↓
(3.72) |
1.92 ↑
(1.9) |
6.5%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 3.00
What is the prediction for Pachuca - Toluca?
Users Predictions:
5 users predict this event. Pachuca will win (votes: 1 - 20%). Toluca will win (votes: 3 - 60%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Pachuca (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:2.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 0.
- Right now, both teams are showing solid form.
- Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Toluca will hold a modest advantage in this match.
- There will not play in Pachuca: Micolta A.
(Knee Injury)
Mozo A.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Pachuca: Montiel E.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Perez P.
(Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Pachuca won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 37:39. (average 1.9:2).
- Including home matches between the teams, Pachuca won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 16:16. (average 1.8:1.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Pachuca won against Toluca?
Pachuca has won 3 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Pachuca?
Toluca has won 4 of their last 9 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Pachuca - Toluca were as follows:
26.10.2025
Toluca
-
Pachuca
2:2
29.03.2025
Toluca
-
Pachuca
3:2
17.09.2024
Pachuca
-
Toluca
2:2
30.03.2024
Pachuca
-
Toluca
2:3
03.09.2023
Toluca
-
Pachuca
5:0
Latest results of Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX Table
Clausura | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Guadalajara Chivas ✔ | 13 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 27:13 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | Cruz Azul | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 24:14 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Toluca | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 19:8 | 11 | 26 |
| 4 | Pachuca | 13 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 17:11 | 6 | 25 |
| 5 | UNAM Pumas | 13 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 23:14 | 9 | 24 |
| 6 | Club America | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14:12 | 2 | 18 |
| 7 | Atlas | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 14:18 | -4 | 18 |
| 8 | Tigres UANL | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 18:15 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Necaxa | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 16:17 | -1 | 16 |
| 10 | Juarez | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 20:22 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Club Leon | 13 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 15:24 | -9 | 16 |
| 12 | Club Tijuana | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13:14 | -1 | 15 |
| 13 | Monterrey | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19:17 | 2 | 14 |
| 14 | Atl. San Luis | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 20:22 | -2 | 14 |
| 15 | Puebla | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 11:16 | -5 | 13 |
| 16 | Queretaro | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 10:17 | -7 | 12 |
| 17 | Mazatlan FC | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 15:25 | -10 | 11 |
| 18 | Santos Laguna | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 15:31 | -16 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Clinched Spots for Teams
Guadalajara Chivas is Qualified for Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs Quarter~finals)
