Result
3:2
29/03/2025 at 19:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga MX - Clausura - Round 13
- Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Mexico | Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium |
 South-america | ViX Latin America |
 Usa | TUDN, Univision |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.53 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (430/518) | 85% (419/492) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.63 | 0.53 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.12 | 0.08 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 17 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 9 | 2 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 6 | 8 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 2 | 2 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 5 | 6 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 26 | 22 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 83% (430/518) | 85% (419/492) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 39% (29/75) | 57% (31/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (99/138) | 74% (105/142) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 27% (3/11) | 20% (2/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.75 | 0.68 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 12 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 77% (24/31) | 71% (15/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 57 | 50 |
| Clearances Total |
|---|
| 10 | 17 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 15 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 0 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 0.08 | 2.12 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.92 | -0.88 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (3 - 0)
- 9', Rodriguez L. 🟨,
- 13', 1 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽, Vega A. (A),
- 38', 2 - 0, Angulo J. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
- 45+3', 3 - 0, Vega A. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 2)
- 46', Hernandez S. A. ↓, Idrissi O. ↑,
- 46', Homenchenko S. ↓, Pedraza P. ↑,
- 46', Gonzalez O. ↓, Sigala J. ↑,
- 54', Ruiz M. 🟨,
- 55', Lopez P. 🟨,
- 63', 3 - 1, Lopez P. (Own goal),
- 64', Angulo J. ↓, Violante I. ↑,
- 66', Rodriguez L. ↓, Sanchez C. ↑,
- 69', John Kennedy ↓, Bautista A. ↑,
- 72', Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↓, Helinho ↑,
- 83', Arteaga V. 🟨,
- 86', 3 - 2, Pedraza P. ⚽,
Chances of winning
Toluca
53.9% | Draw
23% | Pachuca
23.1% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)Pachuca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pachuca than the current prediction. (-0.1%)
Toluca - Pachuca Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.76 ↑
(1.75) |
4.08 ↑
(4.05) |
4.04 ↓
(4.06) |
6.2%
(6.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 3.25
What is the prediction for Toluca - Pachuca?
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Pachuca will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 29% – 96%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).
- Last 5 head-to-head matches Toluca won 3.
- Right away both teams are in a satisfying form.
- Pachuca could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.
- In this match Toluca is a favorite.
- There will not play in Pachuca: Barreto S. D.
(Knee Injury)
Micolta A.
(Knee Injury)
Rodriguez E.
(Foot Injury)
- There are questionable in Toluca: Garcia Caprizo B. A.
(Injury)
- Last 20 head-to-head matches Toluca won 9 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 36:33 (average 1.8:1.7).
- Including matches at home between the teams Toluca won 6 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 4 matches and goals 20:17 (average 2:1.7).
How many head-to-head matches has Toluca won against Pachuca?
Toluca has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Pachuca won against Toluca?
Pachuca has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Toluca - Pachuca were as follows:
17.09.2024
Pachuca
-
Toluca
2:2
30.03.2024
Pachuca
-
Toluca
2:3
03.09.2023
Toluca
-
Pachuca
5:0
19.02.2023
Pachuca
-
Toluca
1:2
30.10.2022
Pachuca
-
Toluca
3:1
Latest results of Pachuca
Mexican Liga MX Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Toluca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7:3 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Pachuca | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6:2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Club America | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Atlas | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 6:5 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Mazatlan FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2:1 | 1 | 4 |
| 6 | Santos Laguna | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:4 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Tigres UANL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:4 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Atl. San Luis | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Club Leon | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Club Tijuana | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | -1 | 3 |
| 12 | Monterrey | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1:3 | -2 | 3 |
| 13 | Cruz Azul | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3:3 | 0 | 2 |
| 14 | Juarez | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:2 | -1 | 1 |
| 15 | Guadalajara Chivas | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | -1 | 0 |
| 16 | Puebla | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3:5 | -2 | 0 |
| 17 | Queretaro | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | -3 | 0 |
| 18 | UNAM Pumas | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2:6 | -4 | 0 |
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )
