Result
2:2
07/02/2026 at 13:00 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 21
- Referee: Torres M. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.35 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 68% | 32% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (581/670) | 75% (234/310) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.71 | 1.35 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.56 | 1.55 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 15 | 6 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 6 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 0 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 8 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 1 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed goals |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 1 | 2 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 5 | 4 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 22 | 10 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 87% (581/670) | 75% (234/310) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 51% (18/35) | 26% (14/54) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 71% (147/207) | 48% (25/52) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 13% (2/16) | 20% (2/10) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.87 | 0.40 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 28 | 20 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 8 | 8 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 79% (11/14) | 62% (13/21) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 42 | 44 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 17 | 23 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 6 | 12 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.55 | 1.56 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.45 | -0.44 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (2 - 2)
- 12', 0 - 1, Pedro Maranhao ⚽, Aiko M. (A),
- 16', 0 - 2, Pedro Maranhao ⚽, Cicero (A),
- 26', 1 - 2, Carvalho J. ⚽, Pizzi (A),
- 29', 2 - 2, Ferro ⚽, Pizzi (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 0)
- 55', Pizzi ↓, Jandro ↑,
- 65', Hodge J. ↓, Felix H. ↑,
- 65', Siebatcheu J. ↓, Kimpioka B. ↑,
- 74', Pedro Maranhao ↓, van der Heide A. ↑,
- 74', Marques A. ↓, Peixinho ↑,
- 83', Amaral P. ↓, Costa G. ↑,
- 83', Ferro ↓, Tsoungui A. ↑,
- 84', Tsoungui A. 🟨,
- 90+2', Sithole S. ↓, Tavares H. ↑,
Chances of winning
Estoril Praia
55% | Draw
24.4% | Tondela
20.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Estoril Praia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.2%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Estoril Praia's performance.Tondela has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tondela might be facing challenges that affect their performance.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Estoril Praia than the current prediction. (-7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Estoril Praia that the model has picked up on.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (+5.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tondela could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.
Estoril Praia - Tondela Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.72 ↓
(1.98) |
3.87 ↑
(3.58) |
4.6 ↑
(3.66) |
5.7%
(5.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Estoril Praia - Tondela?
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:- DNB - Estoril (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- DC - Tondela (2.11) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Users Predictions:
Estoril Praia will win
(32 of 35 users predict this - 91.43%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.16% – 100%.High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Estoril Praia will win (16 of 16 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 18 high ROI users predict this event. Estoril (votes: 17 - 94.4%). Tondela (votes: 1 - 5.6%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 2:1.
Preview Facts
- A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 7 and 17 in the zone Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 2.
- Estoril is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).
- Tondela's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).
- In this match, Estoril is the team to beat.
- There will not play in Estoril: Boma K.
(Yellow Cards)
Israelov O.
(Thigh Injury)
Lacximicant A.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Estoril: Jandro
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Tondela: Maviram E.
(Injury)
- We predict that Estoril will win today's game, with odds of 1.7.
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Estoril won 8 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 20:11. (average 1.7:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Estoril won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 9:3. (average 1.8:0.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Estoril Praia won against Tondela?
Estoril Praia has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Tondela won against Estoril Praia?
Tondela has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Estoril Praia - Tondela were as follows:
31.08.2025
Tondela
-
Estoril Praia
2:2
19.11.2022
Tondela
-
Estoril Praia
0:0
Latest results of Estoril Praia
Latest results of Tondela
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto | 24 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 47:8 | 39 | 65 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 24 | 19 | 4 | 1 | 62:12 | 50 | 61 |
| 3 | Benfica | 24 | 17 | 7 | 0 | 51:14 | 37 | 58 |
| 4 | Braga | 24 | 13 | 6 | 5 | 50:23 | 27 | 45 |
| 5 | Gil Vicente | 24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 35:23 | 12 | 40 |
| 6 | Famalicao | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 29:21 | 8 | 36 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 30:34 | -4 | 34 |
| 8 | Estoril | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 46:42 | 4 | 33 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 28:35 | -7 | 32 |
| 10 | Alverca | 24 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 24:39 | -15 | 27 |
| 11 | Arouca | 24 | 7 | 5 | 12 | 32:52 | -20 | 26 |
| 12 | Estrela | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 26:41 | -15 | 24 |
| 13 | Casa Pia | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | 26:44 | -18 | 23 |
| 14 | Nacional | 24 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 28:36 | -8 | 21 |
| 15 | Rio Ave | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 23:44 | -21 | 21 |
| 16 | Santa Clara | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 20:31 | -11 | 19 |
| 17 | Tondela | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 19:38 | -19 | 19 |
| 18 | AFS | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 18:57 | -39 | 9 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
