Zagłębie Lubin vs Jagiellonia Białystok – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

30/11/2025 at 11:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))

KGHM Zaglebie Arena (Lubin).

Ekstraklasa - Round 17
Referee: Marciniak S. (Pol)
Where to Watch on TV:


Canada	beIN Connect
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Poland	CANAL+ 4K Ultra, CANAL+ Premium, CANAL+ Sport 3, Ekstraklasa TV, sport.tvp.pl, TVP Sport app, TVP Sport
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	0.95
Ball Possession
27%	73%
Total shots
9	19
Shots on target
4	4
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
2	6
Passes
61% (133/218)	86% (538/625)
Yellow Cards
2	3
Expected Goals (xG)
0.77	0.95
xG on target (xGOT)
0.78	0.89
Total shots
9	19
Shots on target
4	4
Shots off target
4	7
Blocked Shots
1	8
Shots inside the Box
5	8
Shots outside the Box
4	11
Hit the Woodwork
0	0
Big Chances
1	1
Corner Kicks
2	6
Touches in opposition box
16	26
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
3	4
Free Kicks
18	17
Passes
61% (133/218)	86% (538/625)
Long passes
34% (20/58)	43% (17/40)
Passes in final third
44% (21/48)	78% (164/211)
Crosses
20% (3/15)	14% (3/22)
Expected assists (xA)
0.51	1.04
Throw-ins
17	13
Fouls
17	18
Tackles
45% (5/11)	65% (11/17)
Duels won
48	49
Clearances
35	24
Interceptions
11	7
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
4	4
xGOT faced
0.89	0.78
Goals prevented
0.89	0.78

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Lucic L. 🟨,
39', Pelmard A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
65', Jozwiak K. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
65', Flach L. ↓, Mazurek B. ↑,
66', Regula M. ↓, Sypek J. ↑,
66', Szmyt K. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
69', Mazurek B. 🟨,
75', Pozo A. ↓, Lozano S. ↑,
77', Lucic L. ↓, Radwanski A. ↑,
77', Rocha L. ↓, Kosidis M. ↑,
84', Wojtuszek N. 🟨,
85', Romanczuk T. ↓, Kobayashi Y. ↑,
85', Pululu A. ↓, Rallis D. ↑,
87', Radwanski A. 🟨,
88', Kolan J. ↓, Makowski T. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Zagłębie Lubin
29.1%

Draw
26.9%

Jagiellonia Białystok
43.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32%

29.3%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.6%

29.8%

38%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Zagłębie Lubin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Jagiellonia Białystok has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Jagiellonia Białystok's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Zagłębie Lubin than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jagiellonia Białystok than the current prediction. (-5.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Jagiellonia Białystok, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.22 ↑ (2.79)	3.5 ↑ (3.05)	2.15 ↓ (2.31)	6% (11.9%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok?

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Zagłębie Lubin will win (votes: 9 - 69.2%). Jagiellonia will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 7.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Zagłębie Lubin: 44.1% – 94.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:

O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): Zagłębie Lubin will win (2 of 2 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 9 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 2.
Zagłębie Lubin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Jagiellonia is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
Zagłębie Lubin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
Recently, Zagłębie Lubin has had a series of away games.
In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Zagłębie Lubin won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 27:26. (average 1.4:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Zagłębie Lubin won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 12:13. (average 1.2:1.3).

How many head-to-head matches has Zagłębie Lubin won against Jagiellonia Białystok?

Zagłębie Lubin has won 2 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Jagiellonia Białystok won against Zagłębie Lubin?

Jagiellonia Białystok has won 3 of their last 7 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok were as follows:

11.07.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin 0:1

21.04.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin 1:3

19.10.2024 Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok 1:3

20.04.2024 Zagłębie Lubin - Jagiellonia Białystok 1:2

20.10.2023 Jagiellonia Białystok - Zagłębie Lubin 3:0

Latest results of Zagłębie Lubin

24.11.2025 Pogoń Szczecin - Zagłębie Lubin 5:1 ✺

07.11.2025 Zagłębie Lubin - Górnik Zabrze 2:0 ✺

03.11.2025 Cracovia - Zagłębie Lubin 0:0 ✺

29.10.2025 Widzew Łódź - Zagłębie Lubin 1:0 ✺

24.10.2025 Termalica Nieciecza - Zagłębie Lubin 1:1 ✺

Latest results of Jagiellonia Białystok

27.11.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - KuPS Kuopio 1:0 ✺

14.11.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Pogoń Grodzisk Mazowiecki 5:1 ✺

09.11.2025 Pogoń Szczecin - Jagiellonia Białystok 1:2 ✺

06.11.2025 Shkendija Tetovo - Jagiellonia Białystok 1:1 ✺

02.11.2025 Jagiellonia Białystok - Raków Częstochowa 1:2 ✺

Polish Ekstraklasa Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Lech Poznan	26	12	8	6	46:37	9	44
2	Zaglebie	26	11	8	7	40:30	10	41
3	Jagiellonia	26	11	8	7	43:34	9	41
4	Gornik Zabrze	26	11	6	9	36:32	4	39
5	Wisla Plock	26	10	9	7	28:25	3	39
6	Rakow	26	11	5	10	35:33	2	38
7	Motor Lublin	26	9	10	7	35:38	-3	37
8	Korona Kielce	26	10	6	10	33:29	4	36
9	Cracovia	26	9	9	8	31:28	3	36
10	GKS Katowice	26	11	3	12	35:35	0	36
11	Piast Gliwice	26	10	5	11	32:33	-1	35
12	Lechia Gdansk	26	11	6	9	51:48	3	34
13	Pogon Szczecin	26	10	4	12	36:40	-4	34
14	Radomiak Radom	26	8	9	9	42:40	2	33
15	Legia	26	6	12	8	30:31	-1	30
16	Arka Gdynia	26	8	6	12	25:44	-19	30
17	Widzew Lodz	26	8	5	13	31:34	-3	29
18	Termalica B-B	26	5	7	14	30:48	-18	22

      Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
      Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
      Relegation ~ Division 1