Result
11/04/2026 at 18:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Liga Profesional - Apertura - Round 14
- Referee: Merlos A. (Arg)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Argentina | HBO Max, TNT Sports |
 Bolivia | ESPN 5, ESPN |
 Bosnia-and-herzegovina | Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 2 |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 4, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+, ESPN |
 Croatia | Arena Sport 1, MAXtv To Go |
 Ecuador | ESPN 5, ESPN |
 Israel | Sport 1, Sport 4 |
 Italy | Como TV, Sportitalia |
 Kosovo | Arena Premium 3 |
 Mexico | Disney+ |
 Paraguay | ESPN 5, ESPN |
 Peru | Disney+, ESPN 5 |
 Portugal | Sport TV2 |
 Serbia | Arena Premium 3 |
 Spain | M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+ |
 Switzerland | Sunrise TV, Sunrise TV |
 United-kingdom | Premier Sports 2, Premier Sports Player |
 Uruguay | Disney+ |
 Usa | Fanatiz |
 Venezuela | Disney+, ESPN 5, Inter |
 World | TyC Sports Internacional |
Chances of winning
Boca Juniors
39.6% | Draw
31.7% | Independiente
28.7% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Boca Juniors has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)Independiente has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boca Juniors than the current prediction. (+5.2%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Boca Juniors, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Independiente than the current prediction. (-3.9%)
Boca Juniors - Independiente Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.37 ↑
(2.15) |
3 ↑
(2.96) |
3.27 ↓
(3.57) |
6.1%
(8.3%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Boca Juniors - Independiente?
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Boca Juniors will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 1.
- Boca Juniors is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Independiente has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
- Boca Juniors may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- Recently, Independiente has had a series of home games.
- Boca Juniors could have a small edge in this match.
- There will not play in Boca Juniors: Battaglia R.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Carlos Palacios
(Knee Injury)
Cavani E.
(Lower Back Injury)
Marchesin A.
(Injury)
Paredes L.
(Yellow Cards)
Zeballos E.
(Hamstring Injury)
- There will not play in Independiente: Pussetto I.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Boca Juniors: Weigandt M.
(Injury)
- There are questionable in Independiente: Valdez F.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Boca Juniors won 6 matches, drew 10 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 27:21. (average 1.4:1.1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Boca Juniors won 3 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).
How many head-to-head matches has Boca Juniors won against Independiente?
Boca Juniors has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Independiente won against Boca Juniors?
Independiente has won 1 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Boca Juniors - Independiente were as follows:
19.05.2025
Boca Juniors
-
Independiente
0:1
14.12.2024
Boca Juniors
-
Independiente
0:0
29.07.2023
Independiente
-
Boca Juniors
0:2
07.01.2023
Boca Juniors
-
Independiente
0:0
23.10.2022
Boca Juniors
-
Independiente
2:2
Latest results of Boca Juniors
Latest results of Independiente
Argentinian Liga Profesional Table
AperturaGroup A | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14:9 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Estudiantes L.P | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 14:6 | 8 | 21 |
| 3 | Boca Juniors | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 14:7 | 7 | 20 |
| 4 | Union de Santa Fe | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 18:12 | 6 | 19 |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 4 | 7 | 1 | 15:10 | 5 | 19 |
| 6 | Lanus | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 17:14 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Talleres Cordoba | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12:11 | 1 | 18 |
| 8 | Independiente | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 18:15 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | San Lorenzo | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12:12 | 0 | 17 |
| 10 | Platense | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 6:7 | -1 | 15 |
| 11 | Instituto | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13:15 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Gimnasia Mendoza | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9:15 | -6 | 12 |
| 13 | Central Cordoba | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6:15 | -9 | 12 |
| 14 | Newells Old Boys | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10:23 | -13 | 9 |
| 15 | Dep. Riestra | 12 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 3:9 | -6 | 7 |
Group B | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Ind. Rivadavia | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 20:12 | 8 | 26 |
| 2 | River Plate | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 17:9 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Argentinos Jrs | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | Belgrano | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 13:12 | 1 | 22 |
| 5 | Rosario Central | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 14:10 | 4 | 21 |
| 6 | Racing Club | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 15:11 | 4 | 18 |
| 7 | Tigre | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 16:12 | 4 | 17 |
| 8 | Huracan | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 12:9 | 3 | 17 |
| 9 | Barracas Central | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11:11 | 0 | 16 |
| 10 | Sarmiento Junin | 12 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 10:12 | -2 | 16 |
| 11 | Gimnasia L.P | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 13:18 | -5 | 14 |
| 12 | Banfield | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 14:16 | -2 | 13 |
| 13 | Atl. Tucuman | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 13:18 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 | Aldosivi | 13 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 3:14 | -11 | 6 |
| 15 | Estudiantes Rio Cuarto | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 3:17 | -14 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Liga Profesional (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals)
