Result
0:1
18/01/2026 at 15:30 (Time Zone – GMT-5 (America/New_York))
- Liga Portugal - Round 18
- Referee: Goncalves J. (Por)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Albania | Tring Sport 2 |
 Argentina | Disney+ |
 Brazil | Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN 3, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping |
 Bulgaria | Ring, Voyo |
 Chile | Disney+ |
 Colombia | Disney+ |
 Croatia | SportKlub 3 |
 Cyprus | Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 6, Cytavision Sports 6 |
 Denmark | Bold+ |
 Finland | Veikkaus TV |
 France | beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 4, Free |
 Germany | Sportdigital FUSSBALL 2 |
 Greece | COSMOTE Sport 3 |
 Hungary | Sport 2 |
 Israel | Sport 2 |
 Italy | DAZN Italia |
 Kuwait | KTV Sport |
 Lithuania | Sport 1 |
 North-macedonia | MaxTV GO |
 Norway | VG+ |
 Peru | Disney+ |
 Poland | Eleven Sports 2 |
 Portugal | Sport TV1 |
 Russia | TV Start |
 Serbia | Arena Sport 5 |
 Slovakia | Arena sport 1 |
 Slovenia | SportKlub 3 |
 South-america | Gol TV Play Latinoamerica |
 Turkey | S Sport+, Tivibu Spor 2 |
 Ukraine | MEGOGO Futbol 5, MEGOGO Ukraine |
 Venezuela | Disney+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 2.29 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 50% | 50% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (281/367) | 82% (315/383) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 4 | 2 |
| Red cards |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.47 | 2.29 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 0.62 | 1.02 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 20 | 12 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 10 | 2 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 13 | 5 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 7 | 7 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 1 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 35 | 15 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 0 | 2 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 15 | 19 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 77% (281/367) | 82% (315/383) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 41% (24/58) | 38% (14/37) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 68% (75/111) | 69% (65/94) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 24% (6/25) | 8% (1/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 1.18 | 0.86 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 18 | 18 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 19 | 15 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 69% (9/13) | 50% (10/20) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 54 | 54 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 20 | 37 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 10 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.02 | 0.62 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| 0.02 | 0.62 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (0 - 0)
- 27', Samu (Penalty Awarded),
- 32', Varela A. 🟨,
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 54', Beni 🟨,
- 60', Veiga G. ↓, Mora R. ↑,
- 60', Pepê ↓, William Gomes ↑,
- 65', Ndoye A. ↓, Gustavo ↑,
- 72', Samu ↓, Gul D. ↑,
- 73', Sainz B. ↓, Pietuszewski O. ↑,
- 76', Camara O. ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
- 76', Samu ↓, Sousa D. ↑,
- 79', Arcanjo T. 🟨,
- 85', 0 - 1, Varela A. (Penalty Awarded),
- 88', Costa A. ↓, Bednarek J. ↑,
- 88', Nogueira G. ↓, Mitrovic M. ↑,
- 89', Beni ↓, Blanco F. ↑,
- 90+5', Lebedenko O. 🟨,
- 90+6', Pietuszewski O. 🟨,
- 90+9', Arcanjo T. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Vitoria Guimarães
13.5% | Draw
22.3% | Porto
64.2% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Vitoria Guimarães has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)Porto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (+1.5%)ML Model estimates a lower probability for Porto than the current prediction. (-3.1%)
Vitoria Guimarães - Porto Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
6.91 ↑
(6.2) |
4.22 ↑
(3.88) |
1.47 ↓
(1.53) |
6.3%
(7.5%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Vitoria Guimarães - Porto?
Users Predictions:
21 users predict this event. Guimarães will win (votes: 3 - 14.3%). Porto will win (votes: 16 - 76.2%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 9.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Porto: 58% – 94.4%.Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:- O/U 1, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
- AH +1 - Porto (1.82) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Porto will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Porto (votes: 4 - 80%). Tie (votes: 1 - 20%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 7 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 1.
- Guimarães is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).
- Porto is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 5 wins).
- Guimarães may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
- In this match, Porto is the obvious favorite.
- There will not play in Guimarães: Rivas Viondi O.
(Muscle Injury)
- There will not play in Porto: Moura F.
(Injury)
Perez N.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Perez T.
(Achilles Tendon Injury)
Rosario P.
(Yellow Cards)
Zaidu
(International duty)
de Jong L.
(Knee Injury)
- There are questionable in Porto: Bednarek J.
(Injury)
- In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guimarães won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 15 matches, and goals 16:36. (average 0.8:1.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Guimarães won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 9 matches, and goals 5:16. (average 0.5:1.6).
How many head-to-head matches has Vitoria Guimarães won against Porto?
Vitoria Guimarães has won 2 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Porto won against Vitoria Guimarães?
Porto has won 7 of their last 10 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Vitoria Guimarães - Porto were as follows:
04.12.2025
Porto
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:3
11.08.2025
Porto
-
Vitoria Guimarães
3:0
24.02.2025
Porto
-
Vitoria Guimarães
1:1
21.09.2024
Vitoria Guimarães
-
Porto
0:3
17.04.2024
Porto
-
Vitoria Guimarães
3:1
Latest results of Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | FC Porto ✔ | 32 | 27 | 4 | 1 | 64:15 | 49 | 85 |
| 2 | Benfica | 32 | 22 | 10 | 0 | 69:22 | 47 | 76 |
| 3 | Sporting CP | 31 | 22 | 7 | 2 | 77:22 | 55 | 73 |
| 4 | Braga | 32 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 60:32 | 28 | 57 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 32 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 41:29 | 12 | 52 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | 46:32 | 14 | 49 |
| 7 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 31 | 12 | 6 | 13 | 38:43 | -5 | 42 |
| 8 | Moreirense | 32 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 37:47 | -10 | 42 |
| 9 | Estoril | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 52:53 | -1 | 38 |
| 10 | Alverca | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 34:50 | -16 | 38 |
| 11 | Arouca | 32 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 41:62 | -21 | 36 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 33:52 | -19 | 34 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | 30:40 | -10 | 33 |
| 14 | Nacional | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 35:43 | -8 | 31 |
| 15 | Estrela | 32 | 6 | 10 | 16 | 36:54 | -18 | 28 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | 29:56 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Tondela | 32 | 5 | 10 | 17 | 24:52 | -28 | 25 |
| 18 | AFS ✔ | 32 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 24:66 | -42 | 17 |
Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
Promotion ~ Champions League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Europa League (Qualification: )
Promotion ~ Conference League (Qualification: )
Liga Portugal (Relegation)
Relegation ~ Liga Portugal 2
Clinched Spots for Teams
FC Porto is Confirmed as championsnQualified for Champions League (League phase )
AFS is Relegated to Liga Portugal 2
