Pardubice vs Karviná – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

04/10/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Stadion Arnosta Kostala (Pardubice).

Chance Liga - Round 11
Referee: Radina M. (Cze)
Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Oneplay, Oneplay Sport 1

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.22	1.44
Ball Possession
40%	60%
Total shots
15	14
Shots on target
5	4
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
4	5
Passes
69% (193/281)	79% (332/419)
Yellow Cards
4	1
Expected Goals (xG)
2.22	1.44
xG on target (xGOT)
2.47	1.05
Total shots
15	14
Shots on target
5	4
Shots off target
9	5
Blocked Shots
1	5
Shots inside the Box
13	6
Shots outside the Box
2	8
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Headed Goals
1	1
Big Chances
2	0
Corner Kicks
4	5
Touches in opposition box
33	22
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
2	3
Free Kicks
11	12
Passes
69% (193/281)	79% (332/419)
Long passes
30% (15/50)	39% (23/59)
Passes in final third
58% (53/91)	64% (74/116)
Crosses
30% (3/10)	33% (6/18)
Expected assists (xA)
1.03	0.77
Throw-ins
27	16
Fouls
12	11
Tackles
67% (14/21)	57% (13/23)
Duels won
56	65
Clearances
25	16
Interceptions
11	4
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	1
Goalkeeper Saves
3	3
xGOT faced
1.05	2.47
Goals prevented
0.05	0.47

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (0 - 1)
19', Botos G. ↓, Sychra V. ↑,
27', 0 - 1, Krcik D. ⚽, Labik A. (A),
37', Simek S. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Teah D. ↓, Sancl F. ↑,
46', Vecheta F. ↓, Tanko A. ↑,
58', 1 - 1, Patrak V. ⚽, Tanko A. (A),
60', Labik A. 🟨,
64', Gning A. ↓, Fiala J. ↑,
64', Samko D. ↓, Ezeh L. ↑,
73', Simek S. ↓, Lexa M. ↑,
74', Reznicek J. 🟨,
81', Saarma R. ↓, Surzyn M. ↑,
82', 2 - 1, Tanko A. ⚽, Sychra V. (A),
83', Storman R. ↓, Fleisman J. ↑,
84', Patrak V. 🟨,
90+1', Serak J. 🟨,

Chances of winning

Pardubice
30.4%

Draw
27.8%

Karviná
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27.3%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.5%

26.7%

31.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pardubice has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Pardubice's form might have worsened.

Karviná has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Karviná's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pardubice than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Pardubice, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Karviná than the current prediction. (-10.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Karviná, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Pardubice - Karviná Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (2.32)	3.53 ↑ (3.45)	2.33 ↓ (2.94)	1.4% (6.1%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

What is the prediction for Pardubice - Karviná?

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Pardubice will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Karviná will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Karviná: 30.4% – 86.2%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 3 high ROI users predict this event. Karviná (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Tie (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.

Preview Facts

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 16 in the zone Chance Liga (Relegation Group: ) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Chance Liga (Championship Group: )).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Pardubice won 3.
Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
Karviná may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Pardubice: Alijagic D. (Convalescence) Simek D. (Red Card)
There will not play in Karviná: Buzek A. (Red Card) Vallo K. (Injury)
There are questionable in Pardubice: Konecny M. (Injury)
There are questionable in Karviná: Bohac S. (Injury) Sigut S. (Injury)
In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Pardubice won 9 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 29:21. (average 1.6:1.2).
Including home matches between the teams, Pardubice won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 1.8:0.9).

How many head-to-head matches has Pardubice won against Karviná?

Pardubice has won 3 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Karviná won against Pardubice?

Karviná has won 2 of their last 5 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Pardubice - Karviná were as follows:

24.11.2024 Karviná - Pardubice 1:0

27.07.2024 Pardubice - Karviná 0:1

19.05.2024 Pardubice - Karviná 4:0

14.02.2024 Karviná - Pardubice 0:3

13.08.2023 Pardubice - Karviná 2:1

Latest results of Pardubice

01.10.2025 Pardubice - Baník Ostrava 0:1 ✺

28.09.2025 Teplice - Pardubice 0:0 ✺

24.09.2025 Frýdek-Místek - Pardubice 1:2 ✺

20.09.2025 Pardubice - Slovácko 1:1 ✺

14.09.2025 Jablonec - Pardubice 3:2 ✺

Latest results of Karviná

27.09.2025 Slovácko - Karviná 1:2 ✺

23.09.2025 Táborsko - Karviná 1:6 ✺

20.09.2025 Karviná - Jablonec 1:2 ✺

13.09.2025 Slavia Prague - Karviná 3:1 ✺

30.08.2025 Karviná - Teplice 4:1 ✺

Czech 1 Liga Table

2025/26

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Jablonec	13	8	4	1	18:8	10	28
2	Slavia Prague	13	7	6	0	22:8	14	27
3	Sparta Prague	12	8	3	1	23:11	12	27
4	Sigma Olomouc	13	5	5	3	10:7	3	20
5	Zlin	13	5	5	3	16:14	2	20
6	Plzen	12	5	4	3	21:13	8	19
7	Karvina	13	6	1	6	22:19	3	19
8	Liberec	13	4	5	4	16:16	0	17
9	Hradec Kralove	13	4	5	4	18:19	-1	17
10	Bohemians	12	4	4	4	10:12	-2	16
11	Teplice	13	2	5	6	13:19	-6	11
12	Dukla Prague	13	2	5	6	9:17	-8	11
13	FK Pardubice	13	2	5	6	15:24	-9	11
14	Ostrava	12	2	4	6	8:14	-6	10
15	Mlada Boleslav	13	2	4	7	19:31	-12	10
16	Slovacko	13	1	5	7	6:14	-8	8

      Promotion ~ Chance Liga (Championship Group: )
      Promotion ~ Chance Liga (7th~10th places: )
      Chance Liga (Relegation Group: )