Aston Villa vs Burnley – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

Football English Premier League
Result
2:1
05/10/2025 at 09:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
  • Premier League - Round 7
  • Referee: Kitchen A. (Eng)
  • Where to Watch on TV:
africaAfricaCANAL+ Sport 3, DStv Now, Supersport Action
albaniaAlbaniaSuperSport 4
argentinaArgentinaDisney+, ESPN
armeniaArmeniaFast Sports
asiaAsiabeIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 5, TOD
australiaAustraliaStan Sport
belgiumBelgiumPlay Sports 1, Play Sports 2
bosnia-and-herzegovinaBosnia-and-herzegovinaArena Sport 1
brazilBrazilDisney+, ESPN 4
bulgariaBulgariaNova Sport
canadaCanadaAmazon Prime Video, DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network 3 DRM, fubo Sports Network 4 DRM
chileChileDisney+
chinaChinaQQ Sports
colombiaColombiaDisney+, ESPN
croatiaCroatiaArena Sport 6, MAXtv To Go
czech-republicCzech-republicCANAL+ Sport 7, CANAL+ Sport, Oneplay
denmarkDenmarkViaplay
europeEuropeGo3 Extra Sports Baltic
finlandFinlandViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
franceFranceCanal+ Live 4
greeceGreeceNova Sports 4
hong-kongHong-kongNow Player, NOW Premier League 3
hungaryHungarySpiler1 TV, TV2 Play Premium
icelandIcelandSÝN Sport
indiaIndiaDisney+ Hotstar
indonesiaIndonesiaVidio
italyItalyNOW TV, SKY Go Italia, Sky Sport 258
japanJapanU-NEXT
kenyaKenyaGotv
kosovoKosovoArena Premium 4, SuperSport 4
malaysiaMalaysiaAstro Go, Astro Premier League 3, Canal+ Sport 3, Sooka
maltaMaltaGO TV, TSN Malta 8
mexicoMexicoAmazon Prime Video, Caliente TV
mongoliaMongoliaPremier Sports 3
nepalNepalKantipur Max
netherlandsNetherlandsViaplay
new-zealandNew-zealandSky Sport 6
nigeriaNigeriaSuperSport Action
norwayNorwayViaplay, V Sport Premier League 2
peruPeruDisney+, ESPN
polandPolandCanal+ Extra 3
portugalPortugalDAZN / App
romaniaRomaniaVoyo
serbiaSerbiaArena Premium 4
singaporeSingaporeHub Premier 3
slovakiaSlovakiaVoyo
south-africaSouth-africaSuperSport Action
south-americaSouth-americaESPN South
south-koreaSouth-koreaCoupang Play
spainSpainDAZN 2 Espana, DAZN Espana
swedenSwedenViaplay, V Sport Fotbool
thailandThailandAIS PLAY
turkeyTurkeybeIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
united-kingdomUnited-kingdomSky Go, Sky Sports+
uruguayUruguayDisney+
usaUsaPeacock TV Premium, Peacock TV
venezuelaVenezuelaDisney+, ESPN, Inter
vietnamVietnamK+ Action

Match Stats

Expected Goals (xG)
1.370.43
Ball Possession
55%45%
Total shots
155
Shots on target
72
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
64
Passes
88% (434/494)80% (326/405)
Yellow Cards
31
Expected Goals (xG)
1.370.43
xG on target (xGOT)
2.940.32
Total shots
155
Shots on target
72
Shots off target
51
Blocked Shots
32
Shots inside the Box
123
Shots outside the Box
32
Hit the Woodwork
01
Headed Goals
01
Big Chances
31
Corner Kicks
64
Touches in opposition box
2411
Accurate through passes
11
Offsides
35
Free Kicks
159
Passes
88% (434/494)80% (326/405)
Long passes
59% (23/39)43% (24/56)
Passes in final third
73% (66/91)55% (55/100)
Crosses
73% (8/11)33% (2/6)
Expected assists (xA)
1.400.27
Throw-ins
917
Fouls
915
Tackles
73% (11/15)46% (13/28)
Duels won
5745
Clearances
215
Interceptions
613
Errors leading to shot
00
Errors leading to goal
00
Goalkeeper Saves
15
xGOT faced
0.322.94
Goals prevented
-0.680.94

Key Moments

Here there are
  • 1st Half (1 - 0)
  • 17', Foster L. 🟨,
  • 25', 1 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Kamara B. (A),
  • 2nd Half (1 - 1)
  • 53', Digne L. 🟨,
  • 59', Tchaouna L. ↓, Bruun Larsen J. ↑,
  • 59', Anthony J. ↓, Broja A. ↑,
  • 63', 2 - 0, Malen D. ⚽, Rogers M. (A),
  • 67', Watkins O. ↓, Buendia E. ↑,
  • 67', McGinn J. ↓, Guessand E. ↑,
  • 69', Foster L. ↓, Ugochukwu L. ↑,
  • 78', 2 - 1, Ugochukwu L. ⚽, Hartman Q. (A),
  • 82', Laurent J. ↓, Flemming Z. ↑,
  • 84', Cash M. ↓, Lindelof V. ↑,
  • 84', Malen D. ↓, Barkley R. ↑,
  • 90', Bogarde L. ↓, Onana A. ↑,
  • 90+1', Buendia E. 🟨,
  • 90+3', Martinez E. 🟨,
  • 90+10', Buendia E. ↓, Maatsen I. ↑,
  • 90+10', Esteve M. ↓, Worrall J. ↑,

Chances of winning


Aston Villa
59%		Draw
24.3%		Burnley
16.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)
61.4% 22.3% 16.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6% 21.6% 16.8%


Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

  • Aston Villa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)
  • Burnley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
  • ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burnley than the current prediction. (+0.1%)
    •

    Aston Villa - Burnley Odds

    1 X 2 Marga
    Avarage Now
    (Initially)    		 1.62 ↑
    (1.56)    		 3.94 ↓
    (4.29)    		 5.74 ↓
    (5.86)    		 4.6%
    (4.6%)

    • The most likely Over/Under: 2.50
    What is the prediction for Aston Villa - Burnley?
  • Users Predictions: 59 users predict this event. Aston Villa will win (votes: 48 - 81.4%). Burnley will win (votes: 4 - 6.8%). It will Tie (votes: 7 - 11.9%).
    Confidence interval (95%) for Aston Villa: 71.5% – 91.3%.
  • High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 22 high ROI users predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 16 - 72.7%). Burnley (votes: 3 - 13.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 13.6%).
  • Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by High ROI users:
    • BTTS - yes (votes: 3 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.
    • AH -1 - Aston Villa (1.97) (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 2 - 100%) .
    • O/U 2 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • AH -0.5 - Aston Villa (1.63) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • 1X2, 1st Half - Aston Villa (2.20) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
    • O/U 1.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
  • Overall votes from High ROI Users Predictions (including all markets): 26 high ROI users predict this event. Aston Villa (votes: 20 - 76.9%). Burnley (votes: 3 - 11.5%). Tie (votes: 3 - 11.5%).
    •
  • The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
    •
    Preview Facts
    • In this match, only outsiders will meet (ranked 16 and 18 in the zone Relegation ~ Championship).
    • In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 3.
    • Aston Villa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).
    • Burnley has suffered multiple defeats recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).
    • Burnley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
    • In this match, Aston Villa is the team to beat.
    • There will not play in Aston Villa: Barkley R. (Lacking Match Fitness) Mings T. (Injury) Onana A. (Hamstring Injury) Tielemans Y. (Calf Injury)
    • There will not play in Burnley: Amdouni Z. (Knee Injury) Beyer J. (Hamstring Injury) Roberts C. (Groin Injury)
    • There are questionable in Aston Villa: Martinez E. (Calf Injury) Sancho J. (Illness)
    • In the last 10 head-to-head matches, Aston Villa won 4 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 17:13. (average 1.7:1.3).
    • Including home matches between the teams, Aston Villa won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).
    What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
    The latest head-to-head matches between Aston Villa - Burnley were as follows:
    30.12.2023 Aston Villa - Burnley 3:2
    27.08.2023 Burnley - Aston Villa 1:3
    Latest results of Aston Villa
    02.10.2025 Feyenoord - Aston Villa 0:2 ✺
    28.09.2025 Aston Villa - Fulham 3:1 ✺
    25.09.2025 Aston Villa - Bologna 1:0 ✺
    21.09.2025 Sunderland - Aston Villa 1:1 ✺
    16.09.2025 Brentford - Aston Villa 2:1 ✺
    Latest results of Burnley
    27.09.2025 Manchester City - Burnley 5:1 ✺
    23.09.2025 Burnley - Cardiff City 1:2 ✺
    20.09.2025 Burnley - Nottingham Forest 1:1 ✺
    14.09.2025 Burnley - Liverpool 0:1 ✺
    30.08.2025 Manchester United - Burnley 3:2 ✺
    English Premier League Table
    2025/26
    PlWDLDiffPts
    1Arsenal29197358:223664
    2Manchester City28185557:253259
    3Manchester Utd28149550:381251
    4Aston Villa28156738:30851
    5Liverpool29146948:39948
    6Chelsea28129749:331645
    7Brentford291351144:40444
    8Everton291271034:33143
    9Bournemouth29913744:46-240
    10Fulham281241240:42-240
    11Sunderland291010930:34-440
    12Brighton28910938:35337
    13Newcastle281061240:42-236
    14Crystal Palace28981130:34-435
    15Leeds297101237:48-1131
    16Tottenham28781338:43-529
    17Nottingham28761526:41-1527
    18West Ham28671534:54-2025
    19Burnley29471832:58-2619
    20Wolves30372022:52-3016

          Promotion ~ Champions League (League phase: )
          Promotion ~ Europa League (League phase: )
          Relegation ~ Championship

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