Result
3:2
21/09/2025 at 15:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Primera A - Clausura - Round 12
- Referee: Ospina J. (Col)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Colombia | Win+ Futbol, Win play, Win Sports |
 Mexico | Fanatiz |
 South-america | RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional |
 Usa | Fanatiz, Fubo Latino 2 |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.62 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 41% | 59% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (214/281) | 77% (309/402) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 4 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 0.90 | 1.62 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.74 | 1.22 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 19 | 8 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 10 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 8 | 0 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 7 | 5 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 12 | 3 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 1 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 10 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 6 | 14 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 76% (214/281) | 77% (309/402) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 36% (18/50) | 39% (22/56) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 52% (31/60) | 55% (51/93) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 29% (2/7) | 25% (3/12) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.33 | 1.71 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 31 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 14 | 6 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 83% (15/18) | 85% (11/13) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 32 | 35 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 26 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 14 | 4 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 6 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.22 | 1.74 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.78 | -1.26 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 4', 1 - 0, Castro Espinosa B. D. ⚽,
- 31', Vega S. 🟨,
- 33', Marulanda J. ↓, Cabezas E. ↑,
- 35', Arias J. 🟨,
- 45+1', 1 - 1, Velasquez J. ⚽,
- 2nd Half (2 - 1)
- 47', 2 - 1, Castro Espinosa B. D. ⚽, Arevalo Chaparro J. N. (A),
- 65', Balanta Carabali K. A. 🟨,
- 67', Barrera J. ↓, Amaya A. ↑,
- 67', Cordoba S. ↓, Salas J. ↑,
- 67', Hurtado J. ↓, Bruno Savio ↑,
- 67', Vega S. ↓, Victoria Palacios D. S. ↑,
- 70', 3 - 1, Castro Espinosa B. D. ⚽, Castro A. (A),
- 76', Bruno Savio 🟨,
- 78', Arroyo A. ↓, Florez K. ↑,
- 78', Velasquez J. ↓, Escorcia L. ↑,
- 78', Castro A. ↓, Canozales C. ↑,
- 78', Castro L. ↓, Giordana S. ↑,
- 78', Diaz Samuel M. ↓, Palacios H. ↑,
- 90+1', 3 - 2, Valencia S. (Pen),
- 90+3', Arevalo Chaparro J. N. 🟨,
Chances of winning
Millonarios
55.8% | Draw
26.6% | Fortaleza CEIF
17.6% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Millonarios has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.2%)Fortaleza CEIF has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Millonarios than the current prediction. (+0.2%)ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fortaleza CEIF than the current prediction. (+0.6%)
Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
1.7 ↑
(1.67) |
3.65 ↑
(3.62) |
5.63 ↑
(5.13) |
4.1%
(7.2%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.00
What is the prediction for Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF?
High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 2 high ROI users predict this event. Millonarios (votes: 2 - 100%).
Users Predictions:
Millonarios will win
(10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.
Preview Facts
- Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 14 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Clausura ~ Quadrangular: )).
- Both teams have been playing unpredictably.
- Millonarios may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
- In this match, Millonarios is seen as the favorite.
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Millonarios won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:4. (average 2.4:0.8).
- Including home matches between the teams, Millonarios won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:1. (average 2.5:0.5).
How many head-to-head matches has Millonarios won against Fortaleza CEIF?
Millonarios has won 3 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Fortaleza CEIF won against Millonarios?
Fortaleza CEIF has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Millonarios - Fortaleza CEIF were as follows:
06.04.2025
Fortaleza CEIF
-
Millonarios
0:2
16.10.2024
Millonarios
-
Fortaleza CEIF
2:1
30.03.2024
Fortaleza CEIF
-
Millonarios
1:2
Latest results of Millonarios
Latest results of Fortaleza CEIF
Colombian Primera A Table
2026 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Atl. Nacional | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 23:9 | 14 | 24 |
| 2 | Dep. Pasto | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 18:14 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Once Caldas | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 23:13 | 10 | 23 |
| 4 | Inter Bogotu00e1 | 12 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 17:15 | 2 | 21 |
| 5 | Bucaramanga | 11 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 16:6 | 10 | 19 |
| 6 | Junior | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17:16 | 1 | 19 |
| 7 | America De Cali | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 15:8 | 7 | 17 |
| 8 | Millonarios | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 19:13 | 6 | 17 |
| 9 | Deportes Tolima | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 12:8 | 4 | 16 |
| 10 | Dep. Cali | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 14:11 | 3 | 16 |
| 11 | Llaneros | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 14:13 | 1 | 15 |
| 12 | Aguilas | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 11:10 | 1 | 15 |
| 13 | Fortaleza | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 13:16 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Santa Fe | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 12:14 | -2 | 12 |
| 15 | Ind. Medellin | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 13:15 | -2 | 10 |
| 16 | Jaguares de Cordoba | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10:21 | -11 | 10 |
| 17 | Cucuta | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 16:25 | -9 | 7 |
| 18 | Chico | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 9:19 | -10 | 7 |
| 19 | Pereira | 11 | 0 | 5 | 6 | 10:22 | -12 | 5 |
| 20 | Alianza | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5:19 | -14 | 5 |
Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )
