Machida Zelvia vs Kashiwa Reysol – Schedule & Where to Watch on TV

17/05/2025 at 01:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))

Machida GION Stadium (Machida).

J1 League - Round 17
Where to Watch on TV:


China	QQ Sports
Japan	DAZN Japan

Match Stats


Expected Goals (xG)
2.62	0.94
Ball Possession
35%	65%
Total shots
13	8
Shots on target
3	2
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
2	7
Passes
71% (224/315)	80% (471/589)
Yellow Cards
1	0
Expected Goals (xG)
2.62	0.94
xG on target (xGOT)
1.94	0.79
Total shots
13	8
Shots on target
3	2
Shots off target
6	5
Blocked Shots
4	1
Shots inside the Box
8	4
Shots outside the Box
5	4
Hit the Woodwork
1	0
Big Chances
4	1
Corner Kicks
2	7
Touches in opposition box
28	12
Accurate through passes
0	0
Offsides
0	1
Free Kicks
5	6
Passes
71% (224/315)	80% (471/589)
Long passes
44% (28/63)	31% (20/65)
Passes in final third
59% (88/148)	61% (92/152)
Crosses
6% (1/17)	13% (2/16)
Expected assists (xA)
0.52	0.68
Throw-ins
35	28
Fouls
6	5
Tackles
68% (13/19)	61% (14/23)
Duels won
58	55
Clearances
35	38
Interceptions
14	6
Errors leading to shot
0	0
Errors leading to goal
0	0
Goalkeeper Saves
2	0
xGOT faced
0.79	1.94
Goals prevented
0.79	-0.06

Key Moments

Here there are

1st Half (3 - 0)
4', 1 - 0, Hayashi K. ⚽,
15', 2 - 0, Koga T. (Own goal),
35', Hayashi K. 🟨,
37', Nakajima S. ↓, Kubo T. ↑,
37', Toshima S. ↓, Yamada Y. ↑,
45+2', 3 - 0, Na Sang-Ho (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Nakama H. ↓, Kakita Y. ↑,
46', Harada W. ↓, Inukai T. ↑,
60', Hosoya M. ↓, Kinoshita K. ↑,
69', Oh Se-Hun ↓, Duke M. ↑,
69', Na Sang-Ho ↓, Numata T. ↑,
80', Sento K. ↓, Shimoda H. ↑,
87', Nishimura T. ↓, Takahashi D. ↑,
87', Mae H. ↓, Shirasaki R. ↑,

Highlights

Chances of winning

Machida Zelvia
38.2%

Draw
31.4%

Kashiwa Reysol
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

30%

27.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

30.9%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Machida Zelvia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Kashiwa Reysol has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Machida Zelvia than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Machida Zelvia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol Odds

	1	X	2	Marga
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.23)	3 ↓ (3.14)	3.09 ↓ (3.4)	6.3% (6%)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

What is the prediction for Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol?

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Machida Zelvia will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Kashiwa will win (votes: 9 - 56.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 25%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Kashiwa: 32% – 80.6%.

High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Machida Zelvia (votes: 1 - 100%).

The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:0.

Preview Facts

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )).
Machida Zelvia has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).
Kashiwa is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).
Machida Zelvia may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.
In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.
There will not play in Machida Zelvia: Nakayama Y. (Concussion) Narasaka T. (Knee Injury) Soma Y. (Injury)
There will not play in Kashiwa: Sugioka D. (Hamstring Injury)
There are questionable in Machida Zelvia: Kikuchi R. (Injury)
In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Machida Zelvia won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:5. (average 0.8:1.3).
Including home matches between the teams, Machida Zelvia won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

How many head-to-head matches has Machida Zelvia won against Kashiwa Reysol?

Machida Zelvia has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

How many head-to-head matches has Kashiwa Reysol won against Machida Zelvia?

Kashiwa Reysol has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.

What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?

The latest head-to-head matches between Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol were as follows:

19.10.2024 Kashiwa Reysol - Machida Zelvia 1:1

03.05.2024 Machida Zelvia - Kashiwa Reysol 2:0

Latest results of Machida Zelvia

11.05.2025 Shimizu S-Pulse - Machida Zelvia 2:2 ✺

07.05.2025 Machida Zelvia - Kyoto Sanga 1:2 ✺

03.05.2025 Kashima Antlers - Machida Zelvia 1:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Cerezo Osaka - Machida Zelvia 1:2 ✺

25.04.2025 Machida Zelvia - Shonan Bellmare 0:1 ✺

Latest results of Kashiwa Reysol

14.05.2025 Yokohama F. Marinos - Kashiwa Reysol 0:2 ✺

10.05.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Fagiano Okayama 2:0 ✺

06.05.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Shimizu S-Pulse 1:0 ✺

29.04.2025 Nagoya Grampus - Kashiwa Reysol 1:2 ✺

26.04.2025 Kashiwa Reysol - Albirex Niigata 1:1 ✺

Japan J1 League Table

2025

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Vissel Kobe	24	14	4	6	34:22	12	46
2	Kashima Antlers	24	14	2	8	36:24	12	44
3	Kashiwa Reysol	24	12	8	4	33:23	10	44
4	Kyoto	24	12	6	6	40:29	11	42
5	Sanfrecce Hiroshima	24	13	3	8	29:18	11	42
6	Machida	24	12	4	8	34:25	9	40
7	Kawasaki Frontale	24	10	8	6	38:26	12	38
8	Urawa Reds	23	10	7	6	32:24	8	37
9	Cerezo Osaka	24	9	7	8	37:33	4	34
10	Gamba Osaka	24	10	4	10	29:31	-2	34
11	Avispa Fukuoka	23	8	7	8	21:23	-2	31
12	Okayama	24	8	6	10	20:22	-2	30
13	Shimizu S-Pulse	24	8	6	10	29:32	-3	30
14	FC Tokyo	24	8	5	11	27:34	-7	29
15	Nagoya Grampus	24	7	7	10	28:33	-5	28
16	Verdy	24	7	7	10	15:24	-9	28
17	Shonan Bellmare	24	6	6	12	20:37	-17	24
18	Yokohama F. Marinos	24	5	6	13	23:32	-9	21
19	Yokohama FC	24	5	4	15	14:30	-16	19
20	Albirex Niigata	24	4	7	13	24:41	-17	19

      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: )
      Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2
      Relegation ~ J2 League