Result
1:2
02/05/2026 at 10:00 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- League Two - Round 46
- Referee: Oldham S. (Eng)
- Where to Watch on TV:
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 United-kingdom | Sky Sports+ |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.89 |
| Ball possession |
|---|
| 51% | 49% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 65% (233/359) | 65% (239/367) |
| Yellow cards |
|---|
| 3 | 2 |
| Expected goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.52 | 1.89 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 2.86 | 1.86 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 13 | 11 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 7 | 3 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Blocked shots |
|---|
| 2 | 3 |
| Shots inside the box |
|---|
| 11 | 6 |
| Shots outside the box |
|---|
| 2 | 5 |
| Hit the woodwork |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Big chances |
|---|
| 3 | 1 |
| Corner kicks |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 36 | 16 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Free kicks |
|---|
| 9 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 65% (233/359) | 65% (239/367) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 34% (25/73) | 24% (17/71) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 55% (63/115) | 58% (95/165) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 16% (5/31) | 14% (2/14) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Throw ins |
|---|
| 33 | 33 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 9 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 84% (16/19) | 68% (13/19) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 74 | 73 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 25 | 53 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 8 | 3 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper saves |
|---|
| 1 | 5 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.86 | 2.86 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.14 | 1.86 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 1)
- 18', Wilson-Brown T. 🟨,
- 19', 0 - 1, Bonis L. ⚽, Dobra A. (A),
- 45+3', 1 - 1, Middlemas B. ⚽, Drinan A. (A),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 46', Knight-Lebel J. ↓, Olakigbe M. ↑,
- 46', Nichols T. ↓, Borland A. ↑,
- 46', McFadzean K. ↓, Donacien J. ↑,
- 51', Hoilett J. 🟨,
- 58', Stirk R. 🟨,
- 61', 1 - 2, Markanday D. ⚽, Dobra A. (A),
- 71', Mandeville L. ↓, Naylor T. ↑,
- 71', Wilson-Brown T. ↓, Snowdon J. ↑,
- 71', Hoilett J. ↓, Palmer O. ↑,
- 75', Middlemas B. 🟨,
- 76', Middlemas B. ↓, Oldaker D. ↑,
- 78', Bonis L. 🟨,
- 90+3', Dobra A. ↓, Berry-McNally J. ↑,
- 90+3', Bonis L. ↓, Grigg W. ↑,
- 90+4', Braybrooke S. ↓, Dickson W. ↑,
Chances of winning
Swindon Town
31.2% | Draw
25.8% | Chesterfield
42.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Swindon Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Swindon Town's form might have worsened.Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.4%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chesterfield's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Swindon Town than the current prediction. (+5.4%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Swindon Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-5.7%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chesterfield, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Swindon Town - Chesterfield Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
2.95 ↑
(2.49) |
3.62 ↑
(3.53) |
2.2 ↓
(2.54) |
7%
(7.8%) | |
- The most likely Over/Under: 2.75
What is the prediction for Swindon Town - Chesterfield?
Users Predictions:
14 users predict this event. Swindon will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%). Chesterfield will win (votes: 3 - 21.4%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 14.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Swindon: 39.2% – 89.4%. The most likely score by Bookmakers is 1:1.
Preview Facts
- One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 8 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 2.
- Recent performances by Swindon have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Chesterfield is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.
- There will not play in Swindon: Butterworth D.
(Hamstring Injury)
Glatzel P.
(Hamstring Injury)
Kilkenny G.
(Inactive)
Minturn H.
(Groin Injury)
Smith H.
(Knee Injury)
Tafazolli R.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Chesterfield: Hobson B.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Chesterfield: Ladapo F.
(Inactive)
- In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Swindon won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 19:11. (average 1.6:0.9).
- Including home matches between the teams, Swindon won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 7:4. (average 1.4:0.8).
How many head-to-head matches has Swindon Town won against Chesterfield?
Swindon Town has won 2 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Chesterfield won against Swindon Town?
Chesterfield has won 0 of their last 3 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Swindon Town - Chesterfield were as follows:
29.11.2025
Chesterfield
-
Swindon Town
1:2
22.02.2025
Swindon Town
-
Chesterfield
1:0
09.08.2024
Chesterfield
-
Swindon Town
1:1
Latest results of Swindon Town
Latest results of Chesterfield
English League Two Table
Main | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Bromley ✔ | 46 | 24 | 15 | 7 | 71:46 | 25 | 87 |
| 2 | MK Dons ✔ | 46 | 24 | 14 | 8 | 86:45 | 41 | 86 |
| 3 | Cambridge Utd | 46 | 22 | 16 | 8 | 66:33 | 33 | 82 |
| 4 | Salford | 46 | 25 | 6 | 15 | 61:51 | 10 | 81 |
| 5 | Notts Co | 46 | 24 | 8 | 14 | 74:52 | 22 | 80 |
| 6 | Chesterfield | 46 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 71:56 | 15 | 79 |
| 7 | Grimsby | 46 | 22 | 12 | 12 | 74:50 | 24 | 78 |
| 8 | Barnet | 46 | 21 | 13 | 12 | 70:53 | 17 | 76 |
| 9 | Swindon | 46 | 22 | 9 | 15 | 70:59 | 11 | 75 |
| 10 | Oldham | 46 | 18 | 14 | 14 | 60:44 | 16 | 68 |
| 11 | Crewe | 46 | 19 | 10 | 17 | 64:58 | 6 | 67 |
| 12 | Colchester | 46 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 62:49 | 13 | 66 |
| 13 | Walsall | 46 | 18 | 11 | 17 | 56:56 | 0 | 65 |
| 14 | Bristol Rovers | 46 | 19 | 5 | 22 | 56:65 | -9 | 62 |
| 15 | Fleetwood | 46 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 57:58 | -1 | 61 |
| 16 | Accrington | 46 | 14 | 11 | 21 | 47:58 | -11 | 53 |
| 17 | Gillingham | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 53:72 | -19 | 53 |
| 18 | Cheltenham | 46 | 14 | 10 | 22 | 53:79 | -26 | 52 |
| 19 | Shrewsbury | 46 | 13 | 10 | 23 | 42:69 | -27 | 49 |
| 20 | Newport | 46 | 12 | 7 | 27 | 48:77 | -29 | 43 |
| 21 | Tranmere | 46 | 10 | 11 | 25 | 54:79 | -25 | 41 |
| 22 | Crawley | 46 | 8 | 16 | 22 | 44:68 | -24 | 40 |
| 23 | Harrogate | 46 | 10 | 9 | 27 | 39:68 | -29 | 39 |
| 24 | Barrow | 46 | 9 | 9 | 28 | 45:78 | -33 | 36 |
Promotion ~ League One
Promotion ~ League Two (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Relegation ~ National League
Clinched Spots for Teams
Bromley is Qualified for League One
MK Dons is Qualified for League One
