Result
1:3
20/09/2025 at 13:30 (Time Zone – GMT-4 (America/New_York))
- Serie B - Round 4
- Referee: Pairetto L. (Ita)
- Where to Watch on TV:
| |
|---|
 Italy | Amazon Prime Video, DAZN Italia, LAB Channel |
 World | Onefootball |
Match Stats
| |
|---|
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.77 | 2.97 |
| Ball Possession |
|---|
| 57% | 43% |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (405/459) | 83% (270/326) |
| Yellow Cards |
|---|
| 3 | 3 |
| Expected Goals (xG) |
|---|
| 1.77 | 2.97 |
| xG on target (xGOT) |
|---|
| 1.79 | 1.74 |
| Total shots |
|---|
| 12 | 22 |
| Shots on target |
|---|
| 5 | 5 |
| Shots off target |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Blocked Shots |
|---|
| 3 | 7 |
| Shots inside the Box |
|---|
| 8 | 17 |
| Shots outside the Box |
|---|
| 4 | 5 |
| Hit the Woodwork |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Headed Goals |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Big Chances |
|---|
| 2 | 4 |
| Corner Kicks |
|---|
| 4 | 10 |
| Touches in opposition box |
|---|
| 12 | 35 |
| Accurate through passes |
|---|
| 0 | 1 |
| Offsides |
|---|
| 1 | 4 |
| Free Kicks |
|---|
| 16 | 11 |
| Passes |
|---|
| 88% (405/459) | 83% (270/326) |
| Long passes |
|---|
| 65% (35/54) | 47% (22/47) |
| Passes in final third |
|---|
| 72% (53/74) | 69% (75/108) |
| Crosses |
|---|
| 18% (2/11) | 32% (9/28) |
| Expected assists (xA) |
|---|
| 0.37 | 1.48 |
| Throw-ins |
|---|
| 14 | 7 |
| Fouls |
|---|
| 11 | 16 |
| Tackles |
|---|
| 50% (3/6) | 56% (9/16) |
| Duels won |
|---|
| 34 | 39 |
| Clearances |
|---|
| 21 | 9 |
| Interceptions |
|---|
| 7 | 8 |
| Errors leading to shot |
|---|
| 1 | 1 |
| Errors leading to goal |
|---|
| 1 | 0 |
| Goalkeeper Saves |
|---|
| 3 | 4 |
| xGOT faced |
|---|
| 1.74 | 1.79 |
| Goals prevented |
|---|
| -0.26 | 0.79 |
Key Moments
Here there are
- 1st Half (1 - 2)
- 1', 0 - 1, Gliozzi E. ⚽, Zampano F. (A),
- 9', Majer Z. 🟨,
- 13', Gliozzi E. (Pen),
- 14', Di Mariano F. 🟨,
- 24', Radaelli N. 🟨,
- 29', Nieling B. 🟨,
- 37', Nieling B. ↓, Cauz C. ↑,
- 38', 0 - 2, Tonoli D. ⚽, Di Mariano F. (A),
- 44', Gerli F. 🟨,
- 45+2', 1 - 2, Mancuso L. (Pen),
- 2nd Half (0 - 1)
- 58', Castellini A. 🟨,
- 66', Falletti C. ↓, Bragantini D. ↑,
- 66', Caprini M. ↓, Fiori A. ↑,
- 66', Bani C. ↓, Maggioni T. ↑,
- 68', 1 - 3, Majer Z. (Own goal),
- 74', Gliozzi E. ↓, Mendes P. ↑,
- 75', Gerli F. ↓, Magnino L. ↑,
- 75', Sersanti A. ↓, Pyyhtia N. ↑,
- 75', Mensah D. ↓, Bonfanti N. ↑,
- 86', Di Mariano F. ↓, Defrel G. ↑,
Chances of winning
Mantova
16.4% | Draw
24.7% | Modena
58.9% |
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
Our Initial ML Estimation
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Mantova has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-19.7%)Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Mantova's form might have worsened.Modena has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+24.1%)Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Modena's recent form is better than expected.ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mantova than the current prediction. (+20.1%)Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Mantova, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.ML Model estimates a lower probability for Modena than the current prediction. (-24.5%)Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Modena, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Mantova - Modena Odds
|
1 |
X |
2 |
Marga |
|
Avarage Now
(Initially) |
7.87 ↑
(2.65) |
5.03 ↑
(3.3) |
1.99 ↓
(2.75) |
-17%
(4.4%) | |
The most likely Over/Under: 2.25
What is the prediction for Mantova - Modena?
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Mantova will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Modena will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%). High ROI Users Predictions (ROI>2%): 1 high ROI users predict this event. Modena (votes: 1 - 100%). The most likely score by Bookmakers is 0:1.
Preview Facts
- In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 0.
- Mantova is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).
- Modena is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).
- Recently, Mantova has had a series of away games.
- Modena might have a minor edge in this game.
- There will not play in Mantova: Artioli F.
(Inactive)
Ruocco F.
(Inactive)
- There will not play in Modena: Strizzolo L.
(Inactive)
- There are questionable in Mantova: Mantovani V.
(Injury)
- In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Mantova won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.5:1).
- Including home matches between the teams, Mantova won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0. (average 0.3:0).
How many head-to-head matches has Mantova won against Modena?
Mantova has won 0 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
How many head-to-head matches has Modena won against Mantova?
Modena has won 1 of their last 2 head-to-head matches.
What were the results of their latest head-to-head matches?
The latest head-to-head matches between Mantova - Modena were as follows:
01.02.2025
Modena
-
Mantova
3:1
30.11.2024
Mantova
-
Modena
0:0
Latest results of Mantova
Italian Serie B Table
2025/26 | | Pl | W | D | L | | Diff | Pts |
| 1 | Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10:3 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | Palermo | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7:2 | 5 | 11 |
| 3 | Cesena | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9:5 | 4 | 11 |
| 4 | Modena | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9:2 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Avellino | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9:7 | 2 | 10 |
| 6 | Sudtirol | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9:7 | 2 | 8 |
| 7 | Venezia | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7:5 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Juve Stabia | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6:4 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Monza | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4:4 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | Padova | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4:5 | -1 | 7 |
| 11 | Carrarese | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6:5 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Catanzaro | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6:6 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Reggiana | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7:8 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Entella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4:6 | -2 | 5 |
| 15 | Pescara | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8:7 | 1 | 4 |
| 16 | Empoli | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5:9 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Mantova | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4:11 | -7 | 3 |
| 18 | Bari | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3:9 | -6 | 2 |
| 19 | Spezia | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2:8 | -6 | 2 |
| 20 | Sampdoria | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3:9 | -6 | 1 |
Promotion ~ Serie A
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Semi~finals)
Promotion ~ Serie B (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)
Serie B (Play Out: )
Relegation
